Dreamworks Animation rolls out a spin-off of their popular Madagascar franchise with Penguins of Madagascar, out Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving box office weekend. Featuring the voices of Benedict Cumberbatch, John Malkovich, and Ken Jeong, Penguins will have some competition with the third weekend of Big Hero 6 still bringing family audiences in.
Still, the history of the Madagascar pictures is a profitable one. The original in 2005 debuted to $47 million on its way to a $193M domestic gross. The follow-up, 2008’s Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, opened with $63 million for an eventual $180M take. 2012’s Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted got off to a $60 million start and then a franchise best $216M overall gross.
Penguins is unlikely to reach the heights of the two last two entries out of the gate, but I’ll predict it tops the $50M mark for its Turkey Day five-day premiere.
Penguins of Madagascar opening weekend prediction: $40.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $54.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my prediction on Horrible Bosses 2, click here:
The Turkey Day box office frame showcases a sequel to a well regarded comedy that came out three and a half years ago as Horrible Bosses 2 opens Wednesday. Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, and Charlie Day are back along with returnees Jennifer Aniston, Jamie Foxx, and Kevin Spacey. Newbies Christoph Waltz and Chris Pine join the fray as well.
In the summer of 2011, the original Bosses debuted to a robust $28 million on its way to a $117M domestic take. Those grosses were strong enough to warrant this sequel. Reviews have not been on its side as it currently holds a tepid 11% on Rotten Tomatoes (compared to its predecessor’s 69% rating). However, its opening weekend should be somewhat critic proof before lackluster word of mouth could cause large drop-offs in future weekends. After all, bad reviews didn’t hurt Dumb and Dumber To one bit.
I’ll predict Horrible Bosses 2 opens with just about what the first did for its Friday to Sunday frame while inching close to $40M for the five-day frame.
Horrible Bosses 2 opening weekend prediction: $28.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $38.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Penguins of Madagascar prediction, click here:
There’s only one new game in town at the box office this weekend and it’s a biggie: The Hunger Games, Mockingjay – Part 1, the third installment of the blockbuster franchise. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
Mockingjay should have no problem having the biggest opening weekend of 2014 as it only needs to outdo the $100M debut accomplished by Transformers: Age of Extinction. I have it premiering between what 2012’s original ($152M) and its sequel Catching Fire ($158M) started at. The film is also highly likely to become the year’s highest grosser when all is said and done, surpassing Guardians of the Galaxy.
As for holdovers, current #1 Dumb and Dumber To is likely to suffer the largest drop of the group. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, word of mouth should be tepid and many moviegoers may have anxiously chose to get their Harry and Lloyd fix early. It should find itself in a battle with Interstellar (in weekend #3) for the three spot.
That should allow Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 to remain number two while Beyond the Lights and Gone Girl should fight it out for #5.
And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for this weekend:
1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $155.8 million
2. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)
3. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Dumb and Dumber To
Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 55%)
5. Beyond the Lights
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
Box Office Results (November 14-16)
The classic comedy reunion of Carrey and Daniels proved to be a fruitful one as Dumb and Dumber To opened quite well 20 years after the original. The critically panned sequel made $36.1 million, above my $29.2M projection. As mentioned, audiences don’t appear to like what they’ve seen and it should fall off rather quickly.
In second, Big Hero 6 made $34.6 million in its sophomore frame – a bit under my $38.9M prediction. Disney’s animated hit has hauled in $110M so far.
Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar was third in its second weekend with $28.3 million, right on pace with my $28.9M estimate. It’s taken in $97M at press time.
The romantic musical drama Beyond the Lights had a dim opening with just $6.2 million for fourth place, not coming close to my $11.4M. The pic simply didn’t connect with its intended audience, despite mostly positive reviews and an A Cinemascore grade.
Rounding the top five – David Fincher’s Gone Girl with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5M (pat on back)! It’s up to $152M domestically.
This Friday, only one new release debuts in the marketplace, but it’s a massive one. Yes, Katniss and company are back in The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 and expect a number of 2014’s records to be broken.
For starters, it needs only to top the $100 million earned by Transformers: Age of Extinction to have the largest opening weekend of the year. That should be no problem whatsoever. 2012’s original Games got off to a $152M start while last year’s sequel Catching Fire took in $158M. Additionally, Mockingjay 1 (the part two franchise finale is out next year) is almost certain to eventually gross higher than 2014’s current box office champ, Guardians of the Galaxy, which has earned $330M. Both of Mockingjay‘s predecessors have earned over $400M domestically.
Jennifer Lawrence returns at Katniss with a large ensemble cast including Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Elizabeth Banks, Woody Harrelson, Jeffrey Wright, Stanley Tucci, and the late Philip Seymour Hoffman. Reviews have been mostly strong, though notices for Catching Fire were more positive.
This third entry appears unlikely to gross under the original’s $152M out of the gate. However, I question whether it manages to top Catching Fire‘s $158M haul. I’ll predict this opens right in the middle of the first two while easily claiming the title of best roll out of the year.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $155.8 million
The AFI Film Festival shed some light this week on some Oscar hopefuls that I’ve written about on this here blog in the past few days. It gave Ava DuVernay’s MLK pic Selma some real heat in the Best Picture, Director, and Actor race while Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper gave itself a shot in the Picture race as well. The industry has also trained its collective eyes on Big Eyes, Tim Burton’s true life biographical drama/comedy. The result? Iffy at best.
Burton is used to dealing with gargantuan budgets, but Big Eyes is an exception. Reportedly it cost just $10 million to produce and it focuses on Margaret Keane (Amy Adams), whose paintings became a phenomenon in the 1950s yet all credit was taken by her husband Walter (Christoph Waltz).
Adams and Waltz are no strangers to acting nominations at the Oscars. Adams has been recognized five times in the past nine years but hasn’t won. On the flip side, Waltz has been nominated in the Supporting Actor race for Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained and took home the gold on both occasions.
For Waltz, some writers have said his performance is a bit over the top and he seems highly unlikely to get his third nod. Adams is the one who could sneak in, but she would appear to be behind Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything). That would leave Adams with the fifth slot and there’s still Emily Blunt’s work in Into the Woods that has yet to be evaluated. Factor in other actresses who sneak into spot #5 and the chances of Adams getting her sixth nomination is very much a question mark.
The picture itself is receiving decent reviews but they aren’t overwhelmingly glowing. Big Eyes appears on the outside looking in for Best Picture and Director for Burton, who’s surprisingly yet to get Academy recognition.
Another picture that premiered during this week’s AFI Film Festival is garnering some Oscar chatter, though not to the extent of the MLK biopic Selma, which I wrote about yesterday.
That would be Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, which tells the true life story of Chris Kile, who’s said to have over 300 kills in his military service. The central character is played by Bradley Cooper and he’s managed Oscar nominations the past two years (for Actor in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook and Supporting Actor in 2013 with American Hustle).
For Cooper, pulling off the trifecta could be an uphill battle. He is receiving rave reviews for his work here, but the Best Actor race is incredibly crowded. Five performances – Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), all seem likely for recognition. That leaves room for no one else. Still, if one of them were to be left out, Cooper is a wise substitute pick.
The only other actor in the film with any chance would be Sienna Miller, who plays Kile’s wife in the Supporting Actress race. She, too, may be on the outside looking in and it’s somewhat difficult to see her inclusion if Cooper isn’t recognized.
Some reviews out of AFI have been quite positive while others are more mixed. I don’t see Eastwood picking up a Director nod. Strangely enough, American Sniper could be a movie that is recognized only in the Best Picture category. That may depend a lot on its box office grosses, which could be substantial (Lone Survivor is a recent similar genre title that did very well).
For now, I’ll predict Sniper doesn’t make the cut – though that is certainly subject to change as the race takes shape over the next two months.
As of yesterday, a major force joined the Oscar race and it is Selma. I’m not referring to Cruel Intentions actress Selma Blair, but rather Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Jr. biopic that screened at the AFI Film Festival last night. The picture focuses on the 1965 voting right marches in Alabama. Critics got their first look at it prior to its December 25th limited release and January 9th nationwide bow. Their verdict points to Selma as a highly likely nominee for Best Picture. Additionally, David Oyelowo (known to most as Forest Whitaker’s son in Lee Daniels’ The Butler) has drawn raves as MLK.
Oyelowo seems primed to join a Best Actor race that already appears to have four near lock nominees: Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton in Birdman, Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, and Steve Carell in Foxcatcher. With Oyelowo seemingly joining that group, the race for Best Actor nominees may well be over.
As for other performers in Selma, either Tim Roth (as George Wallace) or Tom Wilkinson (as Lyndon Johnson) could find themselves competing against one another in the Supporting Actor category. Their nominations are far less assured than Oyelowo’s, but that race still seems somewhat open compared to Actor.
Carmen Ejogo (as Coretta Scott King) may be facing an uphill battle in the Supporting Actress category, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Selma now seems likely to make some Oscar history as its director DuVernay would become the first African American woman to be nominated in that race. Based on the reaction that occurred at AFI, history is about to be made.
There are many terms that could be used to describe Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, but my choice is “spacejerker”. For all the visual bells and whistles on display (and they’re considerable), the picture is really an old-fashioned family drama that attempts to wring tears from its audience on an often annoyingly consistent basis.
It’s also a mix of 2001: A Space Odyssey, Field of Dreams, and, surprisingly, vintage M. Night Shyamalan at times. Add that peculiar concoction up and Interstellar is a mixed bag that still demands to be seen on the big screen (preferably an IMAX one).
As do most pics of the genre, we begin in the “near future” as Earth’s resources are becoming alarmingly scarce. The belief is that the planet will soon become uninhabitable and the citizens of Earth have resigned themselves to their eventual fate. Cooper (Matthew McConaughey) is a relic of a time gone by as a former astronaut whose services are seemingly no longer required. The widower lives on a desolate farm with his father-in-law (John Lithgow) and two young children. His daughter Murphy believes their home is haunted by a spirit attempting to communicate with her. Her father soon comes to believe that the messages she’s getting are legitimate. These otherworldly signals put Cooper in contact with NASA, who exist now as a secret organization. Professor Brand (Michael Caine, of course) and his daughter Amelia (Anne Hathaway) are spearheading a mission to investigate a wormhole orbiting the planet of Saturn. This wormhole may lead to a planet that can allow the human race to travel there and survive. Naturally, they pick Cooper as their pilot.
Cooper’s decision to depart devastates Murphy, even though he promises her he’ll return. The mission begins and leads to many surprises that bend the course of time, so much so that we soon see Murphy all grown as Jessica Chastain (and Casey Affleck as her big brother) while McConaughey is off in galaxies of space still looking like he’s behind the wheel of his beloved Lincoln.
Going any further into Interstellar‘s plot would be getting into spoiler territory. In case you don’t already know, there’s an A list actor who makes a “surprise” appearance around midway through. There are twists and turns (some handled better than others) that gave me the aforementioned Shyamalan vibe at times.
Yet at its heart, Interstellar is about a relationship between a dad who promised his little girl he wouldn’t be gone forever and whether he’s capable of keeping that vow. When the emotional resonance of that dynamic is pulled off well, it’s due in main part to McConaughey’s skill. He’s proven himself to be a fine actor, especially in recent years and that holds true here.
It is not because of the dialogue, which handles the family dynamic in mostly familiar fashion. Hathaway’s character soon has her own daddy issues with her Professor father. This adds up to a lot of crying. McConaughey crying. Hathaway crying. Murphy crying – as a child and an adult. Caine crying. If the robots who help the team on their mission were capable of tears, I’m confident they would’ve as well. However, it’s only in a couple of spots where the film came close to hitting an emotional moment for me. The rest of the plentiful moments seem forced and don’t have powerful dialogue to accompany them.
On the bright side, Interstellar truly is phenomenal looking. Even with my issues pertaining to the screenplay, this is unquestionably worth the trip to the theater. Nolan is successful at staging a number of intense and impeccably choreographed action sequences, whether on a planet with giant awesome looking waves or on one that makes Antarctica look downright tropical.
When Interstellar endlessly tries to pull your heartstrings, it often comes up short. There are a host of significant “wow” moments thankfully that will make your eyes widen. They just won’t be as wet as the filmmakers want them to be.
A comedy sequel 20 years in the making and a musical romantic drama hit the marketplace this weekend as Dumb and Dumber To and Beyond the Lights make their debuts. You can read my detailed predictions on both here:
My prediction for Dumb To is a bit lower than that of others and it stands a chance of opening #1. However, my estimate puts in a dogfight with Interstellar for the runner-up position with Disney’s Big Hero 6 remaining atop the charts. Hero should experience a smallish decline while Interstellar could lose close to 40% of its opening audience.
I’m predicting Beyond the Lights has a healthy debut at #4 (though others are putting it considerably lower than my projection) while Gone Girl should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $38.9 million (representing a drop of 30%)
2. Dumb and Dumber To
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million
3. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Beyond the Lights
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)
Box Office Results (November 7-9)
Two big new releases saw their debuts this past weekend and both managed to open under my estimates.
Disney’s Big Hero 6, as predicted, opened in first with a sturdy $56.2 million, a bit shy of my $61.4M estimate. Still, the animated pic should anticipate a robust run ahead.
Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar performed decently, but undeniably below most expectations. It earned $47.5 million, well under my $57.2M estimate (which was lower than plenty of other prognosticators). Since its Wednesday IMAX roll out, it’s made $49.6M. This opening indicates that Interstellar could struggle to reach $200M domestically, which would be a letdown.
In third was Gone Girl with $6.2 million in weekend #6, just over my $5.4M estimate. The David Fincher hit has amassed an impressive $145M so far.
I incorrectly didn’t have the eventual #4 or #5 in my top five as Ouija was fourth with $5.8 million and Fury fifth with $5.6 million. Their respective totals stand at $43M and $69M.
I had Nightcrawler in third, but it dropped to seventh in weekend #2. The Jake Gyllenhall grossed $5.3 million, on pace with my $5.4M projection and has earned $19M at press time.
As for the animated The Book of Life, I didn’t quite anticipate how much Big Hero 6 would eat into its audience. It grossed just $2.7 million for a tenth place showing, while I predicted it’d be fifth with $5.3M. Its total is at $45 million.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman has plenty to say about the current mega-blockbuster movie culture that we live in and have for some time. The screenplay (by the director along with Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo) puts in its two cents regarding the power that critics have, which is highly debatable in the Internet culture. Ironically, while Inarritu and his team may share a disdain for them, it is likely the rave reviews and Oscar buzz Birdman has received that will grant it a larger audience than expected. Yet, ultimately, this picture will be remembered as a story of an actor trying to make a comeback while giving its actual star one humdinger of a real one.
That would be Michael Keaton in the kind of part that most actors dream about and never get to play. He’s Riggan Thomson, an aging celebrity known to the world for his role as Birdman in a series of wildly popular comic book flicks from two decades ago. As you can gather, this is not much of a stretch for Keaton himself who brought Batman to the masses a quarter century ago. In the present day, he’s directing, writing, and starring in a Broadway play based on a Raymond Carver short story. He sees it as an opportunity to make himself relevant again and yet he’s haunted by his famous alter ego. The production of the play is a mess, which reflects Riggan’s personal life. He employs his fresh out of rehab daughter (Emma Stone) as his assistant. One of his actresses is his girlfriend (Andrea Riseborough), who may or may not be carrying his child. His ex-wife (Amy Ryan) turns up from time to time. Riggan makes life difficult for his lawyer and “best friend” (Zach Galifianakis). And his main co-stars (Edward Norton and Naomi Watts) are action packed with emotional issues.
Birdman shows us an actor on the edge of sanity who is grappling with this massive undertaking of the play and dealing with his wilting fame. He feels like he’s doing something of utmost importance while those around him may not see it that way. The screenplay doesn’t shy away from humorously but honestly ribbing the healthy egos that actors are often known for displaying. Norton’s character could perhaps be based on himself, if you believe the gossip about how difficult he is to work with in real life.
While the pic pokes its dark humor from time to time at the superhero genre craze, it cheekily employs three actors who’ve been a part of them: Keaton, Stone (Gwen Stacy in Spider-Man), and Norton (The Incredible Hulk). And while Inarritu could feel those movies are just visual fluff, Birdman itself is a technical marvel, so to speak. There is a visual trickery to make the film seem like one long continuous take and the result from Emmanuel Lubezki’s camerawork is often hypnotic.
The supporting cast is uniformly top-notch. Every performance is rock solid and every actor gets their moments to shine. Let me there be no doubt though – this is Keaton’s show. People who describe themselves as “movie people” (pretentiously or not) all seem to have a Keaton affinity. Part of it could be that he’s the original Caped Crusader in the blockbuster area. Same goes for Beetlejuice. We’ve never seen him like this, but I believe we always suspected he was capable of this kind of amazing performance. Here, Keaton must balance portraying several alter egos and it’s a joy to witness.
Birdman is not necessarily a movie for the masses. Its pitch black humor could fall flat with some while others will deem it too inside baseball. The ending may be perfect to some viewers, but it took one step too far into unnecessary ambiguity for my taste. There’s a terrific scene when Riggan tells off The New York Times theater critic (Lindsay Duncan). On one hand, he feels liberated telling her what he really thinks of her high-mindedness and misguided sense of self importance. On the other, he’s terrified of her negative review. This explains Riggan’s character in a way – looking for liberation where he may not ever find it and scared as hell the whole time. That probably describes the way a lot of actors truly feel and Birdman drives that point home in an original, often funny, and constantly interesting ways.
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