It’s onto part 3 of my second round of Oscar predictions and Best Actress is on the docket. Between my previous posts covering the Supporting Actor and Actress races, I changed half of those ten predictions from my initial round in late August and early September.
For Actress, only one prediction has changed and that was because Alicia Vikander’s role in The Danish Girl (predicted here weeks ago) has been switched by its studio to Supporting. The four previous predicted women – Cate Blanchett in Carol, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, Carey Mulligan for Suffragette and Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn remain.
The newcomer could also be the current front runner. Brie Larson’s performance in Room has been earning raves and her nomination is virtually assured. Blanchett is actually competing with herself as her lead role in Truth could get in instead of her work in Carol.
More than any other race, this one has remained the most consistent and we shall see if that remains when my third round of predictions is revealed in November. Tomorrow: Best Actor.
This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.
In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.
Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.
Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.
Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.
Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.
This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
Tonight we begin my second round of Oscar predictions in the six top categories and it begins with Best Supporting Actress. Since my initial round of estimates, the list of possible nominees in this race has been diminished greatly – from 24 names to just 10 that I see as real possibilities.
Three of my original five nominees remain: Jennifer Jason Leigh in Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara in Todd Haynes’s Carol, and Kate Winslet in Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs. We also have the inclusion of Alicia Vikander in Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Originally I predicted her in the Actress race but it’s since become clear that her studio will make their campaign in this category. As for another earlier predicted nominee, Elizabeth Olsen in I Saw the Light – that pic has since been met with mostly poor reviews and just got pushed to 2016.
So who’s our fifth? Names being bandied about include Rachel McAdams in Spotlight, Jane Fonda in Youth, Julie Walters in Brooklyn (who I predicted last time), Elizabeth Banks in Love and Mercy, and Diane Ladd in Joy (there’s not much buzz yet for her, but director David O. Russell’s last three films have resulted in four nominations in this category). Yet for now I’ll go with Joan Allen in Room, the upcoming indie pic that is getting raves from critics and film festival crowds. We’ll see how much changes when my third round comes in November and I’ll have Supporting Actor up tomorrow.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.
I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.
As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.
And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:
Steve Jobs
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. The Last Witch Hunter
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
4. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
7. Rock the Kasbah
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
8. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
9. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jem and the Holograms
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.
The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.
Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.
Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.
Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.
Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.
Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The reboot of Vacation may make you long for the days of European Vacation, which came 30 years before it. Not the original Vacation from 1983, which this pic is most inspired by. Not Christmas Vacation from 1989. This new entry doesn’t deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as those two franchise highlights. I’m saying this is substandard to the Griswolds overseas adventure, which was certainly nothing special and this is more on the level of 1997’s unfortunate Vegas Vacation when the series ran out of steam.
Our fifth flick concentrates on grown up Rusty (Ed Helms) and his bored wife (Christina Applegate) taking their two boys to Walley World, the famed amusement park from the original. What follows is an R rated celebration of sex jokes, poop jokes, and pedophilia jokes (yep) that does little to capture the spirit of when Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo took their brood from Chicago to California the first time around. There’s plentiful nods to the ’83 pic and even Clark and Ellen show up for a surprisingly unfunny cameo where Chevy essentially bumbles around for five minutes. Sister Audrey appears in the form of Leslie Mann, now married to weatherman hunk Chris Hemsworth (who does manage to provide a few weak laughs). Cousin Eddie is nowhere to be found (let’s assume he went to Canada).
Vacation isn’t terrible but the majority of its jokes are obvious lowbrow and tired ones mixed in with intermittent genuine laughs. The new Griswolds incarnation is uninspired and this is not a Vacation we need.
At one moment in Brad Bird’s Tomorrowland, one of the lead characters exclaims, “Can’t you just be amazed and move on?” It’s a line that Disney would surely like us to follow with this earnest, visually pleasing, sometimes preachy and totally uneven tale sprung from the minds of Bird and cowriter Damon Lindelof. There is a lot to admire about Tomorrowland and seeing an original picture presented with such a big budget and lots of tech wizardry is among them. Yet it’s hard to love it. Tomorrowland is mainly centered on optimism and it doesn’t hesitate to occasionally lecture us about a generation that dared to stop dreaming, according to its filmmakers. This is primarily centered on lack of focus with the space program and loss of interest in advancing science. Here we have a mega budget sci fi tale with a point of view and a supremely talented director behind the camera to tell it. There are moments during Tomorrowland that left me greatly optimistic for where the story would go to next and individual sequences that were flat out terrific. The faded optimism came with a plot that never really pays off and a third act that doesn’t match up with the first two. It results in being Bird’s least satisfying overall experience, though he’s set quite a bar with The Iron Giant, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
The movie begins with young Frank Walker at the World’s Fair in New York circa 1964. He’s invented a jetpack that sadly doesn’t fly. Nevertheless, his unbridled enthusiasm in science draws the attention of Athena (Raffie Cassidy), a young girl who gives him a pin emblazoned with a big T. Frank soon discovers that this pin transports him to Tomorrowland, a land many dimensions away that looks quite futuristic. We soon learn this is a place where dreamers can go to dream and invent things to keep the future rolling along without the interference of Earthly distractions like money and politics. Turns out Athena is no little girl and she’s a programmed robot tasked with finding those special people to populate Tomorrowland.
When the story switches to present day, Athena’s new pupil is Casey (Britt Robertson), an energetic and endlessly curious teen whose dad (Tim McGraw) is a NASA engineer who doesn’t get much work. She gets a pin as well, but her journey isn’t an easy one. It includes meeting a grown up Frank (George Clooney), whose feelings on Tomorrowland have changed through the years and not in a positive way. They may be well founded as Tomorrowland’s leader David Nix (Hugh Laurie) has a rather warped view on us Earth folk.
For a picture stressing the virtue of the idea behind Tomorrowland, we don’t spend much time there. Most of the action is set back on this planet and a lot of what we see is quite entertaining. Raffie Cassidy has the most challenging role of all and she gives a winning performance. Robertson and Clooney may be stars and they are both just fine, but Cassidy’s butt kicking robo girl steals the show. A scene in a hobby shop with Keegan-Michael Key and Kathryn Hahn and a sequence in which the Eiffel Tower is harboring an underground rocket ship are particular highlights.
As I stated, a lot to admire. However, by the time Laurie’s Nix is essentially preaching the plot to us in the third act, I felt a little underwhelmed. I realize this Utopias world he spoke of didn’t get explored much here. And while lessons about destroying the planet are important, it’s not like we haven’t heard it all before. I still would recommend making this trip because there is enough to like, but temper that optimism a little perhaps.
Next weekend at the box office, we will finally get the answer to the following question: how much has America been clamoring for a Jem and the Holograms movie adaptation? The answer, I suspect, is not much.
Based on the 1980s animated TV series, Jem is a music infused fantasy starring mostly relative unknowns such as Aubrey Peeples (Jem), Stefanie Scott, and Hayley Kiyoko. Juliette Lewis figures into the mix somehow, too. The pic looks to bring in a younger female audience, but it’s unlikely they remember anything about the cartoon from 30 years ago.
Jem‘s saving grace is its teeny $5 million budget and at least Universal Pictures shouldn’t see much of a loss here. However, I’m skeptical it grosses even that small budget during its first weekend out. With five films opening wide next weekend, I anticipate this finishing last among them.
Jem and the Holograms opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:
Bill Murray headlines the comedy Rock the Kasbah, out next weekend and it hopes to join the many successful genre pics Mr. Murray has graced over the past three decades plus. Oscar winner Barry Levinson directs Murray as a has-been rock agent looking to reclaim his mojo in Afghanistan, of all places. The stellar supporting cast includes Bruce Willis, Kate Hudson, Zooey Deschanel, and Danny McBride.
Last year around the same time period, Murray’s St. Vincent opened to positive buzz and an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Rock the Kasbah may have trouble replicating that kind of business. For starters, the buzz on Kasbah isn’t as hot as that of Vincent and there’s also plenty of adult competition in the form of Steve Jobs and the second weekend of Bridge of Spies, among others. On the other hand, this really is the only comedy out there among lots of dramas and horror type flicks.
As I see it, this modestly budgeted $15 million pic might struggle to reach double digits in weekend number one and its best hope might be small drop-offs in subsequent weekends for a respectable gross.
Rock the Kasbah opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:
It’s being billed as the final installment in a successful franchise that began in 2009 and this coming Friday marks the sixth entry in the Paranormal Activity series with The Ghost Dimension. Due to a number of factors, it’s probable that this franchise “finale” may go out with a bit of a whimper.
First off, the found footage horror pic furthers along a series of films that began losing its box office potency with its last effort, The Marked Ones. It opened in January of 2014 to $18.3 million on its way to a meager $32M domestic gross. For comparison sake, 2010’s Paranormal Activity 2 made $40 million out of the gate and ended up at $84M stateside. The third edition was the high point with a $52 million debut and $104M overall haul. The fourth Activity is when things started to decline with a $29 million opening and $53M overall take.
Perhaps even more importantly, The Ghost Dimension is rolling out on far less screens than its predecessors due to Paramount’s decision to release the pic only 17 days after its theatrical release. Many cinema chains have balked at that decision and simply chosen against allowing Dimension to play on their screens. It’s slated to be on about 1400 screens (the fifth entry debuted on over 2800).
Due to those factors, I’m predicting the ceiling for Dimension is low double digits and I’ll actually say it falls just short of that mark.
Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:
The last time audiences were exposed to a film about Apple founder Steve Jobs, it was Ashton Kutcher playing him in 2013’s Jobs, which got mostly negative reviews and sputtered at the box office with only $16 million.
What a difference two years makes. This Friday comes Steve Jobs, with Oscar winning director Danny Boyle behind the camera and Oscar winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin penning the script. Michael Fassbender plays the title role with Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, and Jeff Daniels in the supporting cast. Since it premiered on the film festival circuit weeks ago, it’s been subject to fervent Oscar buzz. Chances are excellent that it will receive nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Winslet). Reviews have been strong.
All this positive buzz means Steve Jobs could gross the highest among the four other pictures it’s premiering against. The most obvious comparison for an opening weekend would be 2010’s The Social Network (also written by Sorkin), which debuted to over $22 million. Jobs could certainly reach that margin, but Social Network did have considerably less competition in its first weekend. I’ll predict this gets to high teens out of the gate and settles in for a nice run throughout the awards season.
Steve Jobs opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:
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