Tag: movies

The Good Dinosaur Box Office Prediction

Pixar usually isn’t in the business of releasing two titles a year, but they are in 2015 as The Good Dinosaur opens Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving weekend. Indeed this is the first time the Disney owned franchise has put out a double feature in one year and this summer’s Inside Out was the studio’s second highest domestic grosser with $356 million in sales.

The Good Dinosaur has the good fortune of being about dinosaurs in a very strong year for them as Jurassic World ruled the summer frame. Disney has played the Turkey Day box office game before to fine results: 2010’s Tangled made $48 million for the three day weekend and $68 million for the Wednesday to Sunday portion and 2013’s Frozen earned $67 million for the traditional weekend with a $93 million five day gross.

Where will this roam in comparison to those titles? I don’t see this making as much as Frozen, which had rapturous reviews. Dinosaur has received positive notices so far, but not to the fawning level of Frozen (or Inside Out for that matter). I do, however, think it’ll manage to outdo what Tangled did five years ago. I’ll forecast a three day debut in the mid to high 50s with a high 70s gross for the extended frame. That could put it in close competition for the #1 spot with the final Hunger Games, depending on how that performs this weekend and how it holds up in its second.

The Good Dinosaur opening weekend prediction: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

For my Victor Frankenstein prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/victor-frankenstein-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Creed

For younger moviegoers, the thought of Rocky Balboa and Oscar buzz being in the same sentence may seem somewhat comical. Not so. The original Rocky was released nearly forty years ago in 1976 and it punched out some serious competition to win Best Picture. And when I say serious competition, I’m talking about Taxi Driver, Network, and All the President’s Men. Sylvester Stallone earned himself a Best Actor nod, though lost to Network‘s Peter Finch.

As we all know, a number of sequels followed that varied in quality. Stallone did not direct the original as John G. Avildsen was behind the camera (he would win the Director Academy Award for his efforts). Avildsen returned to direct 1990’s Rocky V, which is justifiably and ironically considered the worst of the follow-ups. Yet Stallone would direct the four other sequels (parts II, III, IV, and 2006’s Rocky Balboa).

Stallone has relinquished his directorial duties for next week’s Creed, turning the camera over to Ryan Coogler, who made 2013’s critically lauded Fruitvale Station. The pic focuses on the boxing career of the late Apollo Creed’s son and he’s played by Michael B. Jordan, who starred in Station. Stallone is back for the seventh time as Philadelphia’s favorite fighter and his role here finds him more in the Mickey role as Creed’s trainer.

It may have taken nearly four (or in Rocky speak – IV) decades, but it seems like legitimate Oscar buzz for the franchise is back. The initial reviews were released today and it currently stands at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, with Entertainment Weekly calling it easily the best of the series since the original.

Creed has been praised for Jordan’s lead performance, though it seems unlikely he would find himself in the mix for Best Actor. Additionally, even with the strong notices, I don’t foresee it being recognized for Picture or Director. So where could voters decide to recognize it?

Back to Stallone. The Academy loves a good story and how about one in which an iconic actor is nominated in Supporting Actor for his most famed role 40 years after he was nominated in lead Actor for that same part? Sounds like a heckuva story to me!

When my third round of Oscar predictions comes later this month, don’t be surprised to find Sly in the mix for Supporting Actor whereas I hadn’t even listed him as a possibility before. Today’s tale of the tape on Creed makes it clear: Stallone could be a contender.

Hercules Movie Review

For all the partially deserved fanboy flack that Brett Ratner gets for his middling X-Men entry, 2006’s The Last Stand, the truth is that the guy knows how to create fairly passable entertainment. I would apply this to everything from Red Dragon to After the Sunset to Tower Heist. His latest is Hercules. This is not a re-teaming with Eddie Murphy focusing on Sherman Klump’s nephew, but a significantly loose reimagining of the Greek god tale with its tongue often firmly planted in the strong cheekbones of its star Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. If taking on this well worn story sounds like a big undertaking and effort for Mr. Ratner (if only there were a term to better describe that), he doesn’t embarrass himself even if the final product is just mildly satisfying.

Johnson is a natural choice to play the son of Zeus (or is he?) and we find this version of Hercules as a for hire mercenary with a band of merry misfits. They include his young nephew who hates that his legendary uncle won’t let him fight. We have a knife thrower and a dude who doesn’t speak, but we know he will eventually at an “important moment”. And we also know the nephew will get his chance to show his bravery. The most interesting of the Herculean back up group is played by Ian McShane who can apparently see his the details of his own demise. The pic has a little fun with this detail. Rounding out the team is basically Xena, Warrior Princess.

We soon arrive at our hero and team’s latest mission which is to save a village led by a Lord played by John Hurt and his daughter (Rebecca Ferguson) with her young boy who shall be king one day. That is if Hercules and company can save them. Family issues are also front and center with Hercules himself and we learn details of his tragic history relating to why he was banished from Athens.

Our nemesis is someone who may or may not be a centaur and we have a couple of laughs from that detail as well. We get a series of battle sequences and inspirational speeches as the beleaguered village must learn war tricks from the title character. Training montage included. It’s all familiar territory with the one welcome difference being that the screenplay doesn’t take itself seriously like most efforts in the genre.

The vibe gets a bit more toned down in the third act and by that time, these proceedings begin to wear out their welcome. It’s actually the early battle sequences that are most impressive before becoming a little repetitive (some occasional dodgy creature CG doesn’t help). Like Ratner flicks before it, passable is an apt word for description with Hercules.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: November 20-22

The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.

The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.

And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $124.2 million

2. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Secret in Their Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (November 13-15)

As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.

Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.

Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.

Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 5-1

Ladies and gentlemen, we have arrived at the best of the best of my personal favorite movie trailers of the past 25 years and that means the top five!

This has been a tremendously fun list to come up with, especially because it afforded me the opportunity to watch this friggin sweet teasers and trailers. We now get to the creme dela creme and here we go:

5. Inception (2010)

Christopher Nolan’s trailers are always pretty darn awesome and I could have included any from his Dark Knight trilogy or last year’s Interstellar. Yet the most impressive for me was our first look at his mind bending and visually groundbreaking Inception.

4. Pulp Fiction (1994)

OK, yes it’s also my favorite actual movie of the last 25 years, but that’s not why it’s included. The trailer itself with its playful tone of winning at the Cannes Film Festival (which it did) coupled with its violent images, music song shifts, and second to none cast put the trailer in a league of its own as well.

3. The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)

The spot for Martin Scorsese’s collabo with Leonardo DiCaprio’s perfectly captures the wild spirit and tremendous excess of the film itself and Kanye West’s “Black Skinhead” backing track helps, too. I remember watching this over and over again when it premiered.

2. The Social Network (2010)

David Fincher’s trailers are typically in a class of their own (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo made this list as well), but this initial trailer for the picture about the founding of Facebook is an editing masterpiece set to the beautiful strains of Radiohead’s “Creep” as covered by the Vega Choir.

  1. Gravity (2013)

The trailer titled “Detached” for Alfonso Cuaron’s Sandra Bullock lost in space megahit earns the #1 spot here due to its dazzling visuals and the fact that it amazingly captures the suspense that the film brought forth. The original trailer for 1979’s Alien is often and justifiably considered the greatest trailer ever with its tagline “In Space, No One Can Hear You Scream”. This is our generation’s Alien trailer.

And that’ll do it, loyal blog readers! I hope you enjoyed reading this list as much as I enjoyed writing it!

Secret in Their Eyes Box Office Prediction

Even with its high profile cast of Oscar nominees and winners, this Friday’s Secret in Their Eyes may well be another fall 2015 adult themed title that fails to bring in an audience of any major significance. The film, from Breach director and Hunger Games and Captain Phillips screenwriter Billy Ray, is an FBI thriller based on an Oscar-winning 2009 Argentine effort and this remake stars Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts.

Secret seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and it’s picked up zero Oscar buzz, which could have helped. As mentioned, we’ve seen adult themed titles with big stars like Our Brand is Crisis, Burnt, and Steve Jobs all stumble recently and I have a feeling this is headed down a similar path.

Secret in Their Eyes opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Big Short

The last piece of the AFI Film Festival puzzle as it relates to Oscar potential was unveiled Thursday night as Adam McKay’s The Big Short screened. You don’t normally (as in ever before now) see director McKay’s name linked to Academy Awards buzz. We know him best for making Will Ferrell comedies like Anchorman, Talladega Nights, and The Other Guys. 

Yet this comedy with some drama mixed in focuses on the financial and housing crises of recent years and features a stellar cast that includes Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, Melissa Leo, and Marisa Tomei. And when Paramount pushed it up from a release date in 2016 to Christmas time this year, it was seen by some as a move to put it in the Oscar race.

The verdict? Pretty strong, but reviews haven’t been met with universal acclaim. Some critics have been quite positive though and when it comes to the performances, attention has turned to Carell for Actor and Bale in Supporting Actor (a category he won in 2010 for The Fighter). Even though the Best Actor race is less competitive in 2015 than it’s been in recent year, I still feel Carell is a bit of a long shot for consideration unless the movie really takes off. Same goes for Bale. I would also say its inclusion in Best Picture seems iffy, at best.

As you know, however, these things can change over the next couple of months and The Big Short at least established itself as a potential player in the weeks ahead.

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 10-6

This evening we arrive at part four of my personal top 25 best movie trailers of the last 25 years and that means we’ve reached the top ten! We’ve got numbers 10-6 tonight with the top five coming tomorrow. Here we go:

10. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)

This simple yet very effective teaser for Jim Cameron’s follow-up to his 1984 sci-fi hit shows Arnold’s famous Terminator being assembled with the money line at the end, “I’ll be back.” As good as teasers get.

9. Watchmen (2009)

With its Smashing Pumpkins track being used to great effect, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of the famed graphic novel is an expertly edited and visually beautiful trailer that rightly got fan boys into a tizzy a few years back.

8. Independence Day (1996)

So Roland Emmerich’s smash hit was a bit underwhelming and too silly in my view, but this teaser showing the impending alien invasion was all kinds of awesome with its White House money shot to top it off.

7. The Matrix Reloaded (2003)

Expectations were sky high for the sequel to 1999’s watershed science fiction pic and the trailer for Reloaded delivered on every front with its eye popping visuals, even if the film itself was seen as a letdown by many.

6. Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menance (1999)

Yes, I could have listed the trailer for the upcoming Force Awakens here. Yet for those old enough to remember, whether the picture itself turned out well (and it really didn’t), this teaser for Episode 1 was and is probably the most breathlessly awaited teaser ever. It succeeded at stoking the anticipation for the world’s most famous franchise to return.

Tune in tomorrow to check out my top 5, ladies and gents!

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

The final installment of the wildly popular franchise based on Suzane Collins’s novels hits screens next Friday as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opens. Francis Lawrence returns to direct and Jennifer Lawrence is back leading her impressive cast that includes Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Sam Chaflin, Jena Malone, Stanley Tucci, Jeffrey Wright, and Philip Seymour Hoffman (in his final film role). So far, this is getting better reviews than Part 1‘s 65% Rotten Tomatoes score as this stands at 88% currently.

While all entries in this series have made major bucks, it is worth noting that predecessor Mockingjay – Part 1 came in below the first two flicks. Let’s take a trip down box office history lane with this franchise that began in spring 2012:

The Hunger Games

Opening: $152 million with $408 million overall domestic gross

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Opening: $158 million with $424 overall domestic gross

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Opening: $121 million with $337 million overall domestic gross

I find it unlikely that the final tale will outdo the first two, but it could edge out Part 1 simply due to the fact that it’s the last one. It has become commonplace for studios to divide a franchise’s finale installment into two parts. We’ve seen it with Harry Potter and Twilight and Lionsgate did just that here (we’ll see this tactic employed again in the future with the Divergent and Avengers series).

My gut tells me this performs similar to what Part 2 of the last Twilight picture accomplished by making about $3-6 million more that what its predecessor debuted to.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $124.2 million

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

For my Secret in Their Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 15-11

We have moved to day 3 of my personal top 25 best movie trailers of the last 25 years and that means numbers 15-11 before we get to the Top Ten tomorrow!

And here they are:

15. There Will Be Blood (2007)

Director Paul Thomas Anderson has made some of the finest pictures of the last couple of decades and that greatness extends to his trailers. His last two efforts, The Master and Inherent Vice, were both considered for this list but I went with the trailer for There Will Be Blood with its first menacing glimpse of Daniel Day-Lewis’s amazing Oscar winning performance.

14. Cloverfield (2008)

While the movie itself was a bit of a letdown, this spot for this sci-fi pic rightly generated considerable buzz for the mysterious project and is a major example of a trailer contributing to considerable box office success. And it has the coolest Statue of Liberty shot since the original Planet of the Apes.

13. The Blair Witch Project (1999)

Once again, I was disappointed in the eventual final product but the trailer for 1999’s out of nowhere financial smash Blair Witch had audiences wondering whether what they were going to see was real or not.

12. Eyes Wide Shut (1999)

Stanley Kubrick’s final motion picture with at the time real life husband and wife Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman had a dandy of a sensuous and effective trailer set to Chris Isaak’s “Baby Did A Bad Bad Thing’.

11. Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)

Truth be told, I could have listed any of the trailers for Peter Jackson’s massive trilogy, but I went with the original which gave audiences their first stunning glimpse of the director’s Tolkien created universe.

Top Ten tomorrow, folks!