Tag: movies

A Boost for The Revenant

Last night, the Directors Guild of America bestowed their Best Director honor and it went to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for his work in The Revenant. It follows his win at the Golden Globes. This is the second year in a row that the DGA has honored Mr. Inarritu after his victory for Birdman in 2014.

So what does this mean for the Oscars taking place three weeks from today? Well, it certainly gives Inarritu a leg up over over his competitors George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Adam McKay (The Big Short), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), and Lenny Abrahamson (Room). The DGA winner and Oscar winner have matched 21 out of 25 times since 1990. That’s 84%, folks. It is probably reasonable to say that he is the front runner to win come Oscar night. If so, he will be the first auteur to win back to back golden statues in 65 years, since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949 and 1950.

As for whether that translates to a Best Picture win for The Revenant, that question is murkier. While the Picture recipient matches up more often than not with the Director victor, that hasn’t been the case for two of the last three years. While Inarritu’s Birdman did win the big prize a year ago, Ang Lee took Director in 2012 for Life of Pi while Argo won Picture. In 2013, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity work made him a winner while 12 Years a Slave took Picture. As I see it, 2015’s Picture race is still a close call between The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short.

Bottom line: the DGA provided a boost for The Revenant’s maker to be honored in three weeks for the second time in as many years.

Steve Jobs Movie Review

Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs is a masterwork in editing, use of music, and fine performances doused with the dialogue that is unmistakably that of Aaron Sorkin. The man in the title, played by Michael Fassbender, is presented as he’s often said to have been: frustrating. There are certainly times in this picture where the audience will be angry at Mr. Jobs and Sorkin’s script doesn’t sugarcoat his considerable flaws, which include his inability to acknowledge his own daughter. At the same time, this is a work that appreciates its central character, imperfections and all.

The film is constructed much like a play and in three acts centered around the launch of the Apple Founder’s products. In 1984, it’s the Macintosh. In 1988, the failed NeXT computer after Steve had been dumped from his own company. In 1998, the iMac which helped lead to iEverything and market domination. Through this 14 year journey, we meet the people who populate this temperamental genius’s life. There’s his marketing exec Joanna (Kate Winslet), constantly by Steve’s side and witness to historical triumphs and her boss’s failures. Steve Wozniak (Seth Rogen) is the jilted company cofounder who kept Apple afloat for many years while Jobs got all the credit. John Sculley (a typically rock solid Jeff Daniels) is the CEO who is both an enemy and father figure. And the biggest through line comes from Lisa, the daughter that Steve can’t bring himself to properly father.

Steve Jobs eschews the conventional cliches of a biopic, just as the man who hated conventional may have preferred. While Fassbender doesn’t exactly resemble Steve, his performance is quite an accomplishment and succeeds in nailing down his complexities. The loyal yet often flustered Joanna is brought to life wonderfully by Winslet. Sorkin’s well known snappy dialogue should please his many admirers and the story structure is creative enough that you probably won’t quibble with reported historical inaccuracies. Truth be told, no two hour tale could properly nail presenting the enigmatic title subject, but Steve Jobs the film has a talented team doing their level best.

Love or hate him or (like most) appreciative and confounded by him, this picture fascinatingly is another puzzle piece of the man whose existence constantly is at our fingertips.

***1/2 (out of four)

How to Be Single Box Office Prediction

One year ago, Dakota Johnson became a huge star over President’s Day Weekend when Fifty Shades of Grey made an astounding $85 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of that frame. Now she’s back on screen on the same weekend with raunchy rom com How to Be Single alongside costars Rebel Wilson, Alison Brie, and Leslie Mann.

The film hopes to capitalize on Johnson and Wilson’s drawing power and ushering in a sizable female audience (while their male counterparts could be distracted with Deadpool or Zoolander No. 2). It also doesn’t hurt that Valentine’s Day falls on Sunday and it could perform well that day.

Single will still be lucky to gross a fourth of the business that Grey did when it spanked all competition last year. That said, I believe it could actually challenge the Zoolander follow-up for #2 (while Deadpool rules the charts). I’m putting it just slightly below what I believe that comedy sequel will do.

How to Be Single opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

***Please note this prediction is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and not the full Friday to Monday President’s Day Weekend

For my Deadpool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

For my Zoolander No. 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

Zoolander No. 2 Box Office Prediction

Coming to screens nearly 15 years after the cult favorite original, Zoolander No. 2 debuts next weekend with Ben Stiller in front and behind the camera. Stars of the original Owen Wilson, Will Ferrell, and Christine Taylor are back as well as newbies Penelope Cruz, Kristin Wiig, Benedict Cumberbatch, and a whole bunch of cameos including Kim/Kanye and Justin Bieber.

2001’s Zoolander opened to $15.5 million and provided some comic relief to audiences when it premiered just two and a half weeks after 9/11. Its total domestic haul was a fair $45 million. However, the film has undoubtedly taken on considerable cult status over the last decade and a half and expectations are understandably higher for the long gestating sequel.

Having said that, one wonders if younger audience members will turn out in force as this faces serious competition from superhero flick Deadpool, which looks poised to easily rule the weekend. I would maintain that this is unlikely to reach the heights of Dumb and Dumber To, another long delayed sequel to a well regarded 90s comedy that managed $36 million out of the gate. As I see it, Zoolander No. 2 is more likely to score a decent debut in the low to possibly mid 20s and be in the runner-up position (as long as How to Be Single doesn’t overperform).

Zoolander No. 2 opening weekend prediction: $20.9 million

***Please note this prediction is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and not the full Friday to Monday President’s Day Weekend

For my Deadpool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

For my How to Be Single prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

Deadpool Box Office Prediction

Ryan Reynolds has appeared in two superhero flicks before and neither (2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine and 2011’s Green Lantern) are exactly considered genre classics, to be kind. However, the times could be a-changin’ as Deadpool hits theaters next weekend amidst a wave of positive buzz.

Based on the Marvel Comics character, Reynolds plays the title role with Morena Baccarin, Ed Skrein, T.J. Miller, and Gina Carano in the supporting cast with first timer Tim Miller directing. Deadpool has been graced with some terrific trailers (especially the red band ones) that have assisted in generating big audience interest. In case you couldn’t tell from the red band mention, Deadpool is the rare hard R rated comic book pic. One could say that could limit its audience (and this certainly has no shot of achieving the kind of grosses that Avengers or Batman manage), but this should at least meet or very likely exceed expectations.

Somewhat ironically, this may open right in the $53 million range of Reynolds’ critically derided Green Lantern, which then sputtered to a $116M overall take. The difference? That gross for Lantern was disappointing, but it would be just fine for Deadpool. I’ll predict this manages to get a bit beyond that.

Deadpool opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million

**Please note this gross is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, not the full President’s Day Weekend.

For my Zoolander No. 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

For my How to Be Single prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

Spotlight Movie Review

“If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a village to abuse one.”

This line best encapsulates the theme of Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which matter of factly tells the riveting true story of the Boston Globe’s slow uncovering of the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. It also tells a small town coverup tale and that “small town” is Boston, where some of the reporters run in the same circles of the church hierarchy and people who protect them.

Spotlight refers to a four person investigative reporting team at the Globe led by Robby (Michael Keaton). The rest of the gang is played by Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, and Brian d’Arcy James. They are worried about their ability to take their time on stories and do things their way when new editor Marty (Liev Schrieber) is brought in from Miami. Their fear is confirmed not in the way they expect – Marty wants them to delve even deeper into their stories and he doesn’t fret about hometown repercussions. And the story he wants them to spotlight is allegations of priests molesting children over many decades and the victims who are living with their past experiences.

The reporters soon eventually uncover a plot with a scope previously unimaginable. Like that line of dialogue spoken by Stanley Tucci’s dedicated and overwhelmed attorney character, many in Boston’s village knew what was occurring. Yet few of them felt it was their responsibility to blow the whistle. Those who did often found it fell on deaf ears. This extends to the Globe as some of their personnel saw traces of the horror to be revealed later. McCarthy’s film admiringly recounts the process that journalists go through to uncover the story, but it doesn’t totally absolve some of them for their failure to act sooner. In fact, some of the principals on the other side involved wonder what took them so long.

Spotlight is filled with a sterling cast with superb performances down the line. It’s led by Keaton’s hometown boy who seems to know everyone and wants to do the right thing. Schrieber impresses in his role as the outsider who isn’t interested in a one day article. He and the team from Spotlight soon find their story is widespread and terrifying. It drives the point home that in these circumstances, often it’s assumed that someone else will say something and soon it’s a village of people not doing so or not listening. Spotlight expertly tells us how these reporters got to the point where silence was no longer acceptable and the noise you’ll hear at the end of this story will feel like powerful vindication.

***1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: February 5-7

Three new offerings open up Friday to challenge current champ Kung Fu Panda 3: star studded Coen Brothers comedy Hail, Caesar!, Nicholas Sparks novel adaptation The Choice, and genre mashup Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/hail-caesar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/pride-and-prejudice-and-zombies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/the-choice-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, none of these newbies is likely to keep Panda from remaining on top for a second consecutive weekend. In fact, box office numbers should take a hit this weekend, especially on Sunday when the main competition comes from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton.

Caesar! looks best positioned for the runner-up spot while Choice and Pride could fight it out with holdover The Revenant (and possibly Star Wars) for the rest of the top five. And with that, my predictions for the Super Bowl weekend (I’m going Carolina over Denver 38-24 by the way):

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. Hail, Caesar!

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. The Choice

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

Box Office Results (January 29-31)

As expected, Dreamworks Animated Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the charts with a solid $41.2 million, right in line with my $41.7M estimate. The threequel did post the lowest debut for the series so far.

Second place belonged to The Revenant with $12.7 million in its fourth weekend of wide release. It outpaced my $9.8 million prediction and its total stands at $138M.

Third place was Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $11.1 million, ahead of my $8.6M forecast for a cumultation of $895M.

The Finest Hours got off to a weak start (especially with a reported $80M budget) at $10.2 million for fourth place. My prediction? $10.2 million!

Fifth place was holdover Ride Along 2 at $8.4 million for a $70M total. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I gave way too much credit to the Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black. I had it opening second with $16 million. It opened tenth with a pathetic $5.9M. Oops. I’ll take solace in my great guesses for Panda and Hours.

Last (and least): the Natalie Portman Western Jane Got a Gun, which bombed terribly with only $835K for a 17th place showing, less than half my apparently generous $1.7 million projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

 

Entourage Movie Review

Vince, Eric, Drama, Turtle, and Ari are back in action in Entourage, the film that continues the HBO comedy that ran for eight seasons and concluded in 2011. Creator Doug Ellin handles the writing and directing duties and even producer Mark Wahlberg cameos (the show is based loosely on his experiences and his posse). When the show premiered, it had a nice run of being an entertaining novelty that allowed audiences to feel like bystanders watching a megastar and his buddies living the high life in Tinseltown. By about the midpoint of its existence, the show kind of ran out of steam. Simply put, said novelty started to wear and many of the principle characters simply weren’t interesting or three dimensional enough to sustain an eight year airing.

Unfortunately, Entourage: The Motion Picture does little to seem any different than a padded episode in the series later weaker seasons. To catch up: huge movie star Vincent Chase (Adrian Grenier) is recently divorced after a nine day period of wedded bliss and looking to direct. His manager Ari (Jeremy Piven) secures $100 million plus for a strange looking sci fi/action rendering of Jekyll and Hyde dubbed “Hyde”. The fact that it goes over budget creates problems with the picture’s co-financiers, a wealthy Texas businessman (Billy Bob Thornton) and his sleaze bag son (Haley Joel Osment). Eric (Kevin Connolly) is still in his ongoing off and on romance with a very pregnant Sloan (Emmanuelle Chriqui) and sowing his oats during a break. Vince’s always struggling actor brother Johnny Drama (Kevin Dillon) is still struggling and living under his baby bro’s more attractive shadow. Turtle (Jerry Ferrara) is living the high life (literally and figuratively) from his thriving tequila business money and in a potential romance with Ronda Rousey.

We are treated once again to the glamorous life of this crew and their huge parties chock full of celebrity cameos, including a number of the New England Patriots. Like on the show, many of the genuinely funny moments do come from Piven’s always high strung Ari, including his therapy sessions with his long suffering wife. As for other performers, both Grenier and Connolly are a bit dull. Dillon’s Drama veers between humorous and annoying (as he did on HBO). Turtle is Turtle. And for those wondering about Haley Joel Osment after all these years, he doesn’t do himself many favors with this over the top Southern yokel part. If you truly loved the show, you might eat this up. Yet if you’re like me and believe it got long in the tooth, this will likely feel highly unnecessary.

** (out of four)

SAG Award Predictions 2015

This evening, the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs and it will likely provide further hints of the direction the Academy may go in with their acting races. As I did with the Globes and will with the Oscars, here are my predictions on what and who will win!

BEST CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

Nominees

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

Trumbo

Prediction: It’s important to note that SAG is honoring best cast and NOT Best Picture. Therefore the Academy’s Best Picture and this category have only matched 10 out of 22 times. This really appears to be a horse race between Short and Spotlight and it truly go either way. I’ll pick Spotlight for the win which would solidify a true three movie race with Short and The Revenant for the Oscar.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

PREDICTION: Oscar and SAG have matched 17 of 22 times here, which is the best margin of all. This race will further determine whether Leo is the true front runner and my suspicion is it will. Leo all the way.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Prediction: 15 for 22 match with Oscar here. Larson keeps racking up trophies and is the Academy front runner and I suspect she’ll win here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Prediction: 14 for 22 Academy match. This is the most interesting category of the night. Only 2 of the nominees here (Bale, Rylance) are Oscar nominated and the potential Academy favorite (Creed’s Sylvester Stallone) is nowhere to be found. This race could certainly provide an upset, but it’s fair to say Bale and Rylance are the most likely winners. In a tough one, I’ll give the slight edge to Rylance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Predicton: 13 of 22 Oscar match. Winslet was a surprise Globe winner and if she prevails here, we all may need to rethink our Oscar prognostications. Here’s another race where an upset is possible, but I’ll go with Miss Vikander for the win.

And that’ll do it for now, folks!

The Choice Box Office Prediction

Next weekend brings your yearly dose of Nicholas Sparks adaptations as his 2007 novel The Choice comes to the screen. Benjamin Walker and Teresa Palmer headline with Maggie Grace, Tom Welling, and Tom Wilkinson costarring.

The romance seems destined to continue the trend of diminishing returns for Sparks fare. While 2012’s The Lucky One and 2013’s Safe Heaven each started out in the low 20s, 2014’s The Best of Me earned just $10 million and 2015’s The Longest Ride made $13 million out of the gate. I believe The Choice might even struggle to earn double digits and I’ll put it just under that.

The Choice opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

For my Hail, Caesar! prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/hail-caesar-box-office-prediction/

For my Pride and Prejudice and Zombies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/pride-and-prejudice-and-zombies-box-office-prediction/