Tag: movies

Avengers: Infinity War Box Office Prediction

It may feel like winter in many parts of the country even though it’s spring, but next weekend is essentially the start of the summer box office in 2018 when Avengers: Infinity War invades theaters. This is the 19th picture in the Marvel Cinematic Universe that began a decade ago with 2008’s Iron Man and the third installment of the Avengers franchise that kicked off in 2012 (an untitled fourth installment is out next summer).

After 10 years of these superheroes populating our screens in one form or another, Infinity War is the picture that brings them all together. That means we have the Avengers we’re used to seeing together: Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.), Captain America (Chris Evans), Thor (Chris Hemsworth), Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson), and Hawkeye (Jeremy Renner). They’ve got a whole lot of company this time around, including Black Panther (Chadwick Boseman), Spider-Man (Tom Holland), Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch), Ant-Man (Paul Rudd), War Machine (Don Cheadle), Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), Falcon (Anthony Mackie), Loki (Tom Hiddleston), Bucky (Sebastian Stan), and the whole Guardians of the Galaxy gang (Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, and the vocal work of Bradley Cooper and Vin Diesel). Josh Brolin is main villain Thanos. Other actors from the MCU returning include Gwyneth Paltrow, Idris Elba, Paul Bettany, Letitia Wright, Danai Gurira, Benicio del Toro, Cobie Smulders, Angela Bassett, Tessa Thompson, and Jon Favreau. Brothers Anthony and Joe Russo (who directed 2016’s Captain America: Civil War) are behind the camera. Whew…

The gathering of the entire MCU is one impressive selling point and there’s been developments that have even increased the anticipation for Infinity‘s release. Last summer’s Spider-Man: Homecoming was well-received, as were Guardians and Thor sequels. Yet perhaps more than anything else, this February’s Black Panther turned into a phenomenon – becoming the third highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

Projections have steadily increased in the past few weeks. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Infinity War could have the largest stateside opening of all time. In order to do so, it would need to surpass the $247 million achieved by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens. To accomplish the 2nd biggest debut, it would need to exceed the $220 million of last year’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. It will almost certainly achieve the record for an MCU premiere, which is currently held by the original Avengers at $207 million.

I believe this will pass Jedi and rather easily. Getting to the Awakens number is doable, but I’ll project it falls a bit under that milestone.

Avengers: Infinity War opening weekend prediction: $240.2 million

 

Box Office Predictions: April 20-22

It’s the calm before the Marvel storm at the box office this weekend as three new titles debut: Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty, comedy sequel Super Troopers 2, and Paula Patton/Omar Epps thriller Traffik. You can peruse my detailed predictions on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/10/i-feel-pretty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/13/super-troopers-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

As we await the potentially record-breaking premiere of Avengers: Infinity War next weekend (my estimate for it will be on the blog tomorrow), there is some excitement to ponder with this frame. There could be a three-way battle for first place as current #1 Rampage is likely to suffer a heftier drop than A Quiet Place. If Pretty beats my forecast, it could vie for the top slot as well.

My $5.2 million Super Troopers 2 prediction and $3 million projection for Traffik leave them both outside my top 5.

Truth or Dare should drop to fourth with Ready Player One and Blockers battling for fifth position. I’ll note I have Player right behind Blockers in sixth with $5.8 million.

So while Captain America, Iron Man, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy and more superheroes await, here’s my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

2. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

4. Truth or Dare

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 13–15)

Rampage took first as Dwayne Johnson’s adventure with a slew of CG creatures met expectations with $35.7 million, in line with my $36.6 million estimate. As you can see above, I expect it to lose more than half its opening audience and cede the pole position to the third frame of horror smash A Quiet Place.

Speaking of, A Quiet Place held strongly in second with $32.9 million. I was close on that projection too with $31.8 million. The acclaimed pic has amassed $100 million in just ten days.

Blumhouse continued its trend of turning low-budget fright fests into hits as Truth or Dare was third with $18.6 million, just topping my $16.7 million forecast. While I look for it to drop fast, it’s already a big success considering its budget is reportedly under $5 million.

Other holdovers experienced larger declines that my projections. Ready Player One was fourth with $11.5 million compared to my $13.9 million estimate for $114 million total. Blockers was fifth with $10.7 million (I said $13.3 million) for $37 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Super Troopers 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving over 16 years after its predecessor turned into a cult comedy hit, Super Troopers 2 hits theaters next weekend. Continuing to follow the exploits of a group of inept Vermont law enforcement officials, the sequel brings back the team from the Broken Lizard team. That includes Jay Chandrasekhar (who also directs), Kevin Heffernan, Steve Lemme, Paul Soter, and Erik Stolhanske. Other costars include Brian Cox, Damon Wayans Jr., Sean William Scott, Emmanuelle Chriqui, Jim Gaffigan, Rob Lowe, Paul Walter Hauser, Fred Savage, and original Wonder Woman Lynda Carter.

In February 2002, Super Troopers debuted to $6.2 million with an overall $18 million domestic gross. That doesn’t exactly warrant an immediate sequel, but the pic increased in popularity once released for home viewing. Even with its devoted following, part 2 may have trouble matching the premiere of part 1 from a decade and a half ago. 16 years is a long gap and younger moviegoers may not be familiar with the source material at all. Even some fans of the original may choose to wait until Troopers 2 is available on demand.

For meow, I’ll say this falls about a million bucks short of what the 2002 pic accomplished.

Super Troopers 2 opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my I Feel Pretty prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/10/i-feel-pretty-box-office-prediction/

For my Traffik prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

I Feel Pretty Box Office Prediction

Nearly three years ago, comedian Amy Schumer broke through on the big screen in a major way with Trainwreck. Last summer, she hit a bit of a sophomore slump with Snatched. Will the third time be a charm or a disappointment with next weekend’s I Feel Pretty?

Schumer stars as an ordinary gal who hits her head and wakes up thinking she’s attained supermodel looks. The pic comes from directors Abby Kohn and Mark Silverstein, making their directorial debut after writing features including Never Been Kissed, The Vow, and How to Be Single. Costars include Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel, Aidy Bryant, Busy Philips, and real supermodels Naomi Campbell and Lauren Hutton.

As mentioned, Schumer’s Trainwreck debuted in the summer of 2015 to $30 million and an eventual $110 million domestic gross. Two years later, her collaboration with Goldie Hawn, Snatched, grabbed a lesser $19 million out of the gate and then petered out with just $45 million overall.

I Feel Pretty was originally scheduled to open in June of this year before being pushed up to April 27. It was recently moved up a week due to The Avengers staking claim on that release date. Reviews are not out yet and that could both help or hinder its prospects. For instance, Blockers managed to premiere to over $20 million just last weekend and the positive word-of-mouth helped. Snatched, on the other hand, probably wasn’t assisted by its mediocre reaction.

I’ll say Pretty doesn’t reach the $20 million mark and its prospects are more likely in the mid to high teens teens range.

I Feel Pretty opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million

For my Super Troopers 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/13/super-troopers-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Traffik prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 13-15

Dwayne Johnson and Blumhouse Productions are hoping that Friday the 13th is a lucky opening day for them as Rampage and Truth or Dare debut this weekend. The former teams Johnson in an adventure with a host of CG animals and the latter is the latest from the studio that has seen a number of low-budget horror hits. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/rampage-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/truth-or-dare-box-office-prediction/

The battle for #1 got a bit more interesting this weekend due to the incredible debut of A Quiet Place. If Rampage were to not meet expectations (and I have it meeting them), it could create a close race between the two. That said, my mid 30s projection for The Rock and the giant gorillas and wolves puts it in first with Quiet not too far behind.

Underestimating Blumhouse is usually not a wise course of action and I have Truth or Dare in third (even with the considerable competition of A Quiet Place‘s sophomore frame). That means Ready Player One and Blockers (which opened very well itself over the weekend) should be awfully close in the race for fourth. I give Player the slight edge.

There’s also the nationwide expansion of Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs, which has been performing splendidly in limited release. I don’t have a theater count for it yet, but I don’t see it reaching the top 5. If it hits around 1500 theaters, I would probably say it gets around $7.5 million to $8 million. We also have the animated Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero and tennis drama Borg vs. McEnroe apparently both opening in wide (or wide-ish) release. Once again, I’ve yet to witness a screen count and there’s really no chance either of them sniff the top 5 anyway.

And with that, my projections for the weekend:

1. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $36.6 million

2. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

3. Truth or Dare

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Ready Player One

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

5. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

Box Office Results (April 6-8)

As mentioned, it was a loud and massive opening for John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place as the critically acclaimed horror pic took in $50.2 million (way beyond my $31.2 million estimate). That’s the second largest opening of 2018 behind Black Panther as it nearly tripled its meager $17 million budget in just three days. With great word-of-mouth, expect it to play well over the coming weekends.

Pretty much everything made more than my predictions in this first full April weekend. Ready Player One held solidly in weekend #2 with $24.6 million (ahead of my $21.8 million prediction) for $96 million overall.

Well reviewed comedy Blockers had a sturdy debut in third with $20.5 million, besting my $15.2 million projection. Look for the John Cena/Leslie Mann laugh fest to experience minimal declines in coming weekends, similar to what Game Night recently accomplished.

Black Panther took in $8.7 million for fourth (topping my take of $7.2 million) and it once again made some box office history. The Marvel behemoth became the third largest domestic grosser of all time (surpassing Titanic). It will likely stay at that spot behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. The current gross is $665 million.

Acrimony was fifth with $8.3 million (I said $6.5 million). Its two-week tally is $31 million.

Chappaquiddick didn’t make the top 5, but it did considerably better than what I figured. The Kennedy drama was 7th with $5.7 million. I was much lower at $2.3 million.

The inspirational sports drama The Miracle Season was 11th with $3.9 million, serving up close to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Paterno Movie Review

Paterno opens during an important football game as the 84-year-old Penn State coaching legend is going for a personal NCAA record in wins. The elderly team leader sits up high in a press box and not on the sidelines, plotting out the victory. He’s removed, but involved. It’s an allegory for what follows. This is the central question of the massive scandal that follows and the rendering of the subject’s legacy in the public view. How removed was Joe Paterno in the Jerry Sandusky saga? Or how involved was he?

The HBO effort marks the second collaboration of director Barry Levinson and leading man Al Pacino for the cable network. Their first was 2010’s You Don’t Know Jack, in which the Oscar winner played Dr. Kevorkian. Levinson also made last year’s The Wizard of Lies, which cast Robert De Niro as Ponzi scheme maker Bernie Madoff. That picture had some issues with its story structure and so does this.

The tale unfolds in November 2011 over a week’s period of time that feels like an eternity for those in Happy Valley. When former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky is charged with multiple accounts of child sexual abuse, the focus soon turns to what the iconic Paterno (Pacino) knew and when. It’s a startling turn of quick events that results in the coach’s dismissal, as well as others involved with the college.

Breaking the explosive story is local reporter Sara Ganim (Riley Keough), whose sordid tale is ignored for a bit. And then everyone in the world pays attention. It’s this work that would result in a Pulitzer for her and the downfall of a living and breathing institution. This journalistic expose is done in a setting where many of the Penn State faithful are in a haze and in denial about what’s happening. Many don’t want to believe Paterno could have done any wrong in failing to report his knowledge of Sandusky’s evil.

This plot line of the bravery of reporters and the victims to shed light on Sandusky’s crimes and the inability of university officials to do the right thing is the fascinating one. However, Paterno the movie spends most of its running time holed up in Paterno the man’s home as he’s in crisis control mode with his family and advisors.

It does provide Pacino an opportunity for a choice role, just as his other HBO projects have in the 21st century (both Jack and 2003’s Angels in America). He is successful in mimicking the look and mannerisms of the coach. Paterno is played as a man seemingly incapable of understanding the gravity of the unfolding storm around him. The same goes for many in State College.

There’s a remarkable sequence where people take to the streets to protest JoePa’s firing as Sara watches. She knows that she is largely responsible for their vitriol, but also instrumental in putting away a monster. A deeper dive into how that happened could have been intriguing. Paterno largely removes itself from that process while providing a slightly disappointing but well-acted experience from those involved.

**1/2 (out of four)

Blockers Movie Review

Perhaps Emoji decoding will be a term that is looked upon as a dated reference years from now when one views Blockers with fresh eyes. However, it’s one that’s used to humorous effect in 2018 in a comedy that lands more comedic punches than it misses. This is a raunchy confection laced with an often surprising amount of sweetness. Director Kay Cannon, making her directorial debut after writing the Pitch Perfect franchise, is careful to mix them well and she’s got a game cast along the way.

The plot is straightforward: three high school seniors make a pact to lose their virginity on prom night. In the 1980s when these types of flicks were more prevalent, it would usually be just the boys plotting these actions. In Blockers, it’s the girls. Julie (Kathryn Newton) is ready to do the deed with her beau and she’s got ultra clingy single mom Lisa (Leslie Mann) constantly breathing down her neck. Kayla (Geraldine Viswanathan) has overprotective pops Mitchell (John Cena) and a date who amusingly uses his culinary skills for mind expanding purposes. Sam (Gideon Adlon) has a strained relationship with her party boy dad Hunter (Ike Barinholtz) and a fedora clad prom partner that doesn’t match her personal preferences.

When the trio of parents discover their daughters plans, they set out to disrupt the deflowering scheme and go to humiliating lengths to do just that. At one point, that means butt chugging at an after party for a certain wrestler turned thespian. Not exactly high brow stuff, but a funny sight gag nonetheless.

At other junctures, Blockers deftly portrays its teens as both naive due to their age and occasionally more intelligent than their over reactive folks. They’re not bad kids solely focused on sex, even though their elders focus is centered on stopping that for varying reasons. The whole coddling storyline with Mann and Cena’s characters is a well-worn one. However, both performers shine in their sometimes familiar scenarios. Barinholtz’s arch with his daughter is little more unique and a bit fresher – and he winningly avoids making his character one-dimensional. Of the three young women, Viswanathan is an actress to keep an eye on in the future.

There’s sex, drugs, and Hailee Steinfeld songs in Blockers, where sin and sentiment manage to coincide well most of the time. The thumbs up emoji applies.

*** (out of four)

Ready Player One Movie Review

In a time when much of our popular entertainment is now made by 1980s kids who worshipped at the altar of Steven Spielberg and others, Ready Player One often feels like a loving homage to the product he made. Except it’s made by Spielberg himself and based on a 2011 Ernest Cline novel that also placed Spielberg’s works among its many cultural references. Such an experience runs the considerable risk of collapsing upon itself in a meta avalanche. Yet there’s a reason Spielberg is considered the best in the blockbuster game and he mostly avoids the potential self congratulating pitfalls here. It doesn’t belong in the same stratosphere as his most delicious popcorn offerings, but it contains enough sweetness and eye-popping visuals to be reasonably filling.

We begin in the dystopian future of 2045 where the majority of the Earth’s populace lives in slum conditions. Wade Watts (Tye Sheridan) is among them. He’s an 18-year-old in Columbus, Ohio with deceased parents and a sad life living with his trashy aunt. Wade’s existence matches that of many and their only refuge from squalor is The OASIS. That’s a virtual reality world created by the late James Halliday (Mark Rylance), an eccentric developer whose nostalgic tastes inform his fantasy universe. Those preferences include a whole slew of 80s flicks and tunes and more. Players can select alternate identities when they slap on the VR goggles. Wade takes on the persona of Parzival and he cruises around in the iconic DeLorean from Back to the Future. Wade/Parzival isn’t just a run of the mill player. He’s a good one. And he’s among a small group of high level participants known as Gunters.

Following Halliday’s death, it’s revealed he hid an Easter egg in the OASIS and the first player to find it will inherit control of the whole shebang. Wade has noble intentions should he win. So does Art3mis (Olivia Cooke), an expert gamer who attracts Wade’s admiration and his heart. There’s also those who want control of this trillion-dollar game for more devious purposes. That includes Sorrento (Ben Mendelsohn), corporate overlord of IOI (Innovative Online Industries). That conglomerate envisions total control of this product and go to dangerous lengths to prevent ace players like Parzival and Art3mis from succeeding.

Ready Player One quickly establishes this dense new world to us without making it seem too complicated. We quickly accept the dual nature of these heroes and villains in the depressed looking capital of Ohio and the shimmering alternate reality of the OASIS. In the latter, players can become whoever they want and the programmers can insert anyone in. That allows a lot of references to characters we’ve seen elsewhere. If you have ever imagined King Kong, The Iron Giant, and the murderous Chucky doll in the same feature, your wish is granted.

Much of this is an excuse for dazzling adventure sequences and many of them truly are. There’s a notable horror pic that is the centerpiece of a key scene. Going much more into it would feel like spoiler territory, but I’ll say it’s a pretty amazing highlight. Some of the battles take on a sameness vibe eventually, but the OASIS is consistently a visual wonder to behold.

Leads Sheridan and Cooke are both stellar. Rylance and Simon Pegg as Halliday’s former business partner are memorable. Mendelsohn (as he did in Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) brings a satisfying  sinister turn as the bad guy.

Spielberg’s classics have become so because of their heart. Ready Player One is not a classic, but there are moments when the beats of them are well replicated. The picture may be best appreciated by an audience whose nostalgia glasses are usually half full. I’m among them. While you might be watching closely for pop culture references, there’s an overall message of balance between adoration of the past and appreciating the present. The director behind the camera here is deservedly revered for his great past, but he can still provide the goods presently.

*** (out of four)

Truth or Dare Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse Productions and Universal Pictures are hopeful horror fans will be game for Truth or Dare next weekend. Debuting on Friday the 13th, the film puts a scary spin on the time honored contest that we all familiarized ourselves with in our teens. That’s the target audience that it wishes to reach. Jeff Wadlow, who directed Kick–Ass 2, is behind the camera with a cast including Lucy Hale, Tyler Posey, Violett Beane, Hayden Szeto, and Landon Liboiron.

Originally scheduled to premiere on April 27, the pic wisely moved off that weekend when Iron Man, Black Panther, and other Avengers claimed it. However, the current release date poses its own problems as fellow genre title A Quiet Place will be in its sophomore frame and likely still making noise.

That said, Blumhouse has a knack for turning low-budget fright fests into hits. They’ve just come off a banner 2017 that included Split, Get Out, and Happy Death Day. I don’t, however, feel Truth or Dare will manage that trio’s grosses. I’ll estimate a debut in the mid teens range.

Truth or Dare opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Rampage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/rampage-box-office-prediction/

Rampage Box Office Prediction

Pairing Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson with a bunch of CG animals in an adventure flick? If that sounds like a recipe for box office success, that’s because Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle became Sony’s biggest hit at the end of 2017. And next weekend’s Rampage (while it won’t approach the numbers of that franchise follow-up) looks poised to bring in generous earnings.

The Warner Bros release is based loosely on the 1980s video game. It marks Johnson’s third collaboration with director Brad Peyton following Journey: The Mysterious Island and San Andreas. Both of those titles managed to top the century mark ($103 million and $155 million respectively) and this should do the same. Costars include Naomie Harris, Malin Ackerman, Joe Manganiello, Jake Lacy, and Jeffrey Dean Morgan. Perhaps more importantly, other costars are giant gorillas, wolf’s, and alligators.

The question is whether Rampage falls more in line with $27 million debut of Journey 2 or the $54 million accomplished by Andreas. The former seems a bit low to me while the latter is high. I’ll project a mid to possibly high 30s opening is more the ticket.

Rampage opening weekend prediction: $36.6 million

For my Truth or Dare prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/truth-or-dare-box-office-prediction/