The Lego franchise has made nearly half a billion dollars at the domestic box office for Warner Bros since 2014 and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart will add to those coffers next weekend. It’s money hauls, however, have not translated to success with Oscar voters.
TheLegoMovie was critically acclaimed and seemed assured an Academy nod in Animated Feature four years ago. It was one of the most surprising snubs when it didn’t make the cut. There were two Lego pics in 2017 (TheLegoBatmanMovie, TheLegoNinjagoMovie). Neither of them managed to make the race that year.
While reviews for TheSecondPart are strong, several critics have said it doesn’t quite match the first part. Competition from animated sequels alone in 2019 (HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld, Frozen2, ToyStory4) is serious. Therefore it appears highly unlikely that this will be the year where Lego builds any standing with the awards crowd.
The Directors Guild of America bestowed their honors yesterday and it was yet again a big night for the Mexican drama Roma. The acclaimed Netflix effort won Outstanding Directing for a Feature Film for its maker Alfonso Cuaron. It’s his second DGA prize after winning for Gravity in 2013.
This particular award has rightly been seen as a harbinger for what will occur at the Oscars. In this decade, the DGA victor has gone onto win the Academy directing race seven out of eight times. The lone exception was in 2012 when Ben Affleck took the Guild trophy for Argo and surprisingly wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar.
Simply put, the DGA solidifies Cuaron’s position as the strong front-runner for Best Director and increases the chances for Roma emerging as the winner for Best Picture. Any other name called last night could’ve boosted their standing as a threat to Cuaron, but it didn’t happen. His Oscar night is looking good in three weeks.
Forrest Tucker’s life of easygoing deception includes telling the woman he’s courting that he’s a salesman. In a way he is. Forrest (Robert Redford) is selling the most pleasant experience imaginable for the bank tellers he’s robbing. He does so with a calm and reassuring demeanor and the occasional megawatt movie star smile. Tucker was a real man who spent his decades doing what he excelled at. He was noted for being a charmer and Redford (in what might be his final role) certainly knows how to play that.
TheOldMan&TheGun is a testament to Redford’s decades of doing what he’s excellent at. Tucker is an outlaw and that moniker holds true for the legend playing him. He’s played other outlaws and the actor that’s championed independent film fits that description.
Forrest’s biggest claim to fame was his ability to break out of prisons (close to 20 times). David Lowery’s feature concentrates more on what put him in the slammer in the first place across Texas and other states. We meet him on a work day as he ambles into a local branch in the early 1980s. He calmly and appealingly tells the teller that he’ll be making an unauthorized withdrawal. The police who interview his marks seem to all say the same things… seemed like a nice guy.
That doesn’t matter much to detective John Hunt (Casey Affleck, a frequent Lowery contributor). He’s bound and determined to catch Forrest and his aging two colleagues (Tom Waits and Danny Glover). Hunt could be at a disadvantage. He seems worn down by his job. Forrest, even at his advancing age, still seems to relish it.
The heart of Gun involves Forrest meeting Texas farmer and widow Jewel (Sissy Spacek). Their potential romance gives him a bit of pause. He’s never ridden a horse. She’s got three of them on her property. It’s apparently on his to-do list. It would seem a life enjoying his lifted money on the farmland might be too. Or perhaps not as his job genuinely brings him the greatest joy.
Watching Redford and Spacek together gives us joy. They’re dynamite together. The stylish flair employed by its director is joyous to witness. The same adjective describes listening to Tom Waits giving a monologue about Christmas in his childhood. On the other hand, Affleck’s role isn’t really fleshed out. The screenplay attempts to give him some back story with his wife (Tika Sumpter) and kids, but it never really takes form. There’s also the matter of the audience not really wanting Hunt to catch his likable prey.
This is ultimately Redford’s show. If this is his curtain call, it’s a relaxed and awfully entertaining one. We’re reminded of the star’s former works in old clips toward the end and I found it emotionally gratifying. I finished TheOldMan&TheGun sporting the same smile that its subject greets those tellers.
James Cameron is no stranger to Oscar attention with Titanic winning Best Picture 21 years ago and Avatar picking up a slew of nominations in 2009. In two weeks, he serves as co-writer for Alita: BattleAngel along with Laeta Kologridis. It’s directed by Robert Rodriguez. The pic is based on a well-known series of cyberpunk graphic novels from Japan. Rosa Salazar voices the title character and provides motion capture work for her movements in this mix of live and CG action.
Reviews are out and they’re skewing negative, along with some positive here and there. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 44%. A lot of the critics are particularly picking apart the screenplay and that’s not an uncommon knock on Cameron’s writing.
Alita comes with a reported budget upwards of $200 million and it’s being seen as a potential costly flop stateside (foreign grosses could be a different story). While this clearly won’t contend for major categories in awards season, the state of the art visuals have been praised. And it’s worth noting that Cameron’s directorial efforts Aliens, TheAbyss, Terminator2: JudgmentDay, Titanic, and Avatar all won Best Visual Effects at the Oscars.
That said, there’s plenty of eye-popping blockbuster feasts on the schedule in 2019 (Avengers: Endgame and the next StarWars included). With the possibility of negative buzz enveloping it, this may not even be a slam dunk in that category. In that sense, it could be similar to 2017’s ValerianandtheCityofaThousandPlanets, which also had poor word-of-mouth and missed out in its most obvious slot for recognition. If this manages a nod, the two Sound races are possible as well.
Orion Pictures hopes horror fans turn out next weekend with the release of TheProdigy. The fright fest casts “Orange Is the New Black” star Taylor Schilling as a mom who thinks her young son might be possessed by a demon. Jackson Robert Scott, most known as Georgie (the kid who got his arm ripped off by Pennywise in It), plays the boy. Nicholas McCarthy directs.
As has been said many times on this blog, this genre always has the possibility to surprise with a larger than anticipated opening. There’s no direct competition for horror watchers, but there’s three other pics debuting that should all premiere with bigger numbers (TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart, WhatMenWant, ColdPursuit).
The studio would be fortunate to see a rollout like 2016’s TheBoy, which managed nearly $11 million for its start. I don’t see it happening and I’ll project it makes a bit over half that figure.
TheProdigy opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
As they say, revenge is a film best served with Liam Neeson in it and Summit Entertainment hopes that holds true next weekend with ColdPursuit. The action thriller casts Neeson as a snow plow driver avenging the murder of his son with his particular set of skills. Norwegian director Hans Petter Moland is behind the camera and costars include Laura Dern, Emmy Rossum, Tom Bateman, and William Forsythe.
We are a decade past the star’s career resurgence with the sleeper hit Taken and its two sequels. What followed were $20 million plus openers like Unknown and Non–Stop. The sub genre of Neeson tough guy flicks, however, has seen its grosses dwindle in recent years. AWalkAmongtheTombstones, RunAllNight, and last year’s TheCommuter all debuted in the low double digits to low teens range.
Reviews have been surprisingly strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is at 93%. Several critics have praised an apparent well-placed sense of humor. Yet I’m skeptical that will give ColdPursuit a hot premiere. I’ll predict this falls right in line with his later entries.
ColdPursuit opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
Paramount is banking on a significant African-American and female audience next weekend for WhatMenWant, a remake of the 2000 blockbuster WhatWomenWant with Mel Gibson and Helen Hunt. As the title suggests, this is a flip of the original with its lead character being able to hear the inner thoughts of the male species. Taraji P. Henson plays her with costars including Aldis Hodge, Tracy Morgan, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Pete Davidson, and Erykah Badu. Adam Shankman, maker of BringingDowntheHouse and ThePacifier, directs.
The gimmicky formula could be a success with its target audience. Its source material was a smash, debuting to $33 million and legging out to $182 million overall. Henson has starred in such high-profile hits as HiddenFigures, NoGoodDeed, and the ThinkLikeaMan pics.
Some of those efforts saw openings in the mid to high 20s and that’s exactly where I see this starting out at.
WhatMenWant opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
The Warner Animation Group hopes to build back up its near half billion dollar domestic franchise next weekend with the release of TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. This direct sequel arrives five years after its hit predecessor, though there’s been two spin-offs in the meantime. Mike Mitchell, who made ShrekForeverAfter and Trolls, takes over directing duties from Christopher Miller and Phil Lord (they wrote the screenplay). Returning voices include Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett (he’s Batman), Charlie Day, Nick Offerman, Alison Brie, and Will Ferrell. Familiar faces joining the voiceover party are aplenty. They include Tiffany Haddish, Maya Rudolph, Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Brooklyn Prince, and thespians from the DC Cinematic Universe (Gal Gadot, Margot Robbie, Jason Momoa).
In February of 2014, TheLegoMovie earned $69 million out of the gate with an eventual stateside take of $257 million. Our first spin-off, 2017’s TheLegoBatmanMovie, achieved $53 million for its start and $175 million total. A few months later, TheLegoNinjagoMovie was a legitimate disappointment. It premiered with only $20 million and didn’t leg out well ($59 million).
As they were with the first part, reviews are positive as this stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics, however, have noted it doesn’t quite match up to the original. While this should easily debut at #1, I’ll project that it falls short of the 2014 earnings. Topping $50 million is certainly possible, but I’ll go just shy of that number.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
Premiering at the Sundance Film Festival just before its Friday debut on Netflix is Dan Gilroy’s latest picture VelvetBuzzsaw. The horror satire reunites the writer and filmmaker with his Nightcrawler lead Jake Gyllenhaal in a film said to mercilessly mock the world of art critics and collectors. Several movie critics seem quite impressed. Others are more mixed. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 82%. Costars include Toni Collette, Gilroy’s spouse and frequent collaborator Rene Russo, and John Malkovich (who must have office space at Netflix with this, BirdBox, and ExtremelyWicked, ShockinglyEvil, andVile).
Reviews suggest Buzzsaw could be quite polarizing. It may have a tough time breaking through with Oscar voters nearly a year from now. That said, both of the director’s previous works nabbed one nomination. 2014’s Nightcrawler was recognized for its Original Screenplay. In my view, it should’ve received more nods than that (especially Gyllenhaal). 2017’s RomanJ. Israel, Esq. saw Denzel Washington garner a lead actor spot.
If Velvet has enough strong boosters, another screenplay nomination isn’t totally out of the question. Yet there’s a long road ahead to see whether that’s a possible outcome. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It should be an extremely quiet weekend at the box office, as it typically is during the Super Bowl frame. There’s only one wide release out and it’s the Gina Rodriguez led action thriller MissBala. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:
I’m not expecting Bala to reach double digits and my estimate probably puts it in third place behind current holdovers Glass and TheUpside (it could go lower). It’s quite possible that no picture will hit double digits this weekend as the 1-2 combo should hover right around that mark.
The rest of the top five should be held by Aquaman and TheKidWhoWouldBeKing, but with the possibility that Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse could vault over King after its weak debut. I’ll say that happens. It’s also feasible that the drop for GreenBook could be insignificant and it could jump into the top five. I’ll put it just behind Spidey, however.
With that, my projections for the uneventful frame ahead:
1. Glass
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
2. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
3. MissBala
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $5 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (January25–27)
Glass held the top spot with an expected hefty sophomore dip at $18.8 million, in line with my $19.6 million estimate. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup, with middling audience and critical reaction, has made $73 million (which is nearly three times its meager budget).
TheUpside continued its strong holdings in second with $11.9 million (I said $9.8 million) for a three-week tally of $62 million.
Aquaman was third with $7.2 million compared to my $6.4 million prediction. The DC tale is up to a terrific $316 million.
The aforementioned King Arthur based family flick TheKidWhoWouldBeKing got off to a poor start in fourth with just $7.1 million, under my take of $10.8 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $5.2 million) for $169 million overall.
Finally, the Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway crime thriller Serenity bombed in eighth position with only $4.4 million. I was a bit higher at $5.1 million.
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