The Venice Film Festival is underway and something very British has premiered in the form of The Duke. The 1960s set true life heist dramedy comes from Notting Hill director Roger Michell, who also steered Peter O’Toole to his final Oscar nod in 2006’s Venus. The pic is headlined by two gold statue recipients with Jim Broadbent (Supporting Actor for 2001’s Iris) and Helen Mirren (Actress for 2006’s The Queen).
Initial word of mouth is strong. Based on a handful of reviews, the Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 100% with critics calling this heartfelt… and very British. The Duke is slated to open in the UK in November and it’s likely to hit stateside prior to the Academy’s February deadline.
Distributor Neon will need to work its marketing mojo to get this on the radar of awards voters, but it’s feasible. The best hope could be with Broadbent’s performance and that could play out more with the Golden Globes if the film is submitted in the Musical/Comedy section. The Oscars could be a taller order. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at Week #2 for my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. I do so as the Venice Film Festival has kicked off with Telluride and Toronto slated to virtually get underway in the coming days. That means quite a few Oscar Watch posts will be up in short order, including for several of the features predicted below.
Since last Thursday, I’ve written only two Watch entries. Mulan isn’t likely to be a factor in any of the big races, but it could definitely contend for some technical categories. The forthcoming horror pic Antebellum didn’t impress critics and won’t be mentioned again here. If you would like to peruse those posts, you can do so here:
When I wrote my initial guesstimates one week ago, it was on the following day that movie lovers across the globe were hit with tragic news. The loss of Chadwick Boseman to colon cancer has shocked and saddened all of us. Despite his acclaimed performances in 42, Get On Up, and his iconic work as Black Panther, Mr. Boseman has yet to receive a nomination from the Academy. Last Thursday, I already had him listed at #2 in Supporting Actor for the upcoming Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is now listed first as is his costar Viola Davis in Best Actress.
Here are some other developments of note:
I am still higher on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (which also featured Boseman) than some other prognosticators. I have it listed for inclusion in Best Picture, Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Original Screenplay. However, its numbers have fallen a bit and I am taking Spike Lee out of my Director five.
My estimated eight Best Picture nominees has remained intact with some shifting in the rankings.
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Paul Greengrass (News of the World) are in for Director with the aforementioned Spike Lee and Francis Lee (Ammonite) out.
The five in Actress has not changed. In Actor, I’ve made the move to take Bill Murray’s performance in On the Rocks and put it in the supporting field. That allows for Tom Hanks (News of the World) to move up. In general, I have soured a bit on Rocks. You’ll see below that its numbers have dropped precipitously.
Supporting Actress also includes the same five women and that’s also the case with Supporting Actor.
Though I don’t have it in the top five, I’ve corrected French Exit to be listed in Adapted Screenplay as opposed to Original. Soul replaces The French Dispatch in Original for the moment while The Father vaults over West Side Story in Adapted.
As you’ll see, there’s plenty of new faces being mentioned for the first time that didn’t make the list last week and others who have dropped.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Dune (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
6. Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 16)
10. Soul (PR: 14)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
13. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
15. Minari (PR: 18)
16. The Father (PR: 17)
17. Annette (PR: 13)
18. Stillwater (PR: 21)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 22)
20. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Tenet (PR: 15)
22. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 24)
24. French Exit (PR: 25)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
C’Mon C’Mon
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
11. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
14. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Christopher Nolan, Tenet (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Leos Carax, Annette
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 11)
10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 8)
11. Marion Cotillard, Annette
12. Julianne Moore, The Glorias (PR: 9)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 15)
14. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 13)
15. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
8. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 13)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 8)
10. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
14. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 9)
15. Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (moved to Supporting Actor)
Timothee Chalamet, Dune
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 14)
8. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire (PR: 8)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 11)
15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
8. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 6)
9, Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 12)
10. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Lucas Hedges, French Exit (PR: 9)
14. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
15. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Oscar Isaac, Dune
Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 4)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 11)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 15)
11. Annette (PR: 13)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
14. Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tenet (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
French Exit (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Dune (PR: 2)
4. The Father (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
8. West Side Story (PR: 4)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
11. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9)
13. The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 11)
15. Respect (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it with updated predictions next Thursday!
After its theatrical release was scrapped due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Disney’s live-action version of their 1998 animated tale Mulan is set to stream on Disney+ beginning tomorrow for a fee of $30. With a reported budget of around $200 million, this is certainly one of the highest profile features to ever (if ever) hit the PVOD circuit.
Over the past decade, the Mouse Factory has made billions of dollars with this sub genre of bringing their well-known drawn properties to a human scale. And there’s already a history of these pics garnering technical nominations at the Oscars.
The review embargo for Mulan lapsed on the eve of its release and reaction thus far is mostly on the positive side. Niki Caro’s remake is generating praise for its action sequences and overall visuals. Some of the reviews are a bit less kind. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently 73%. That’s a marked improvement over last year’s Aladdin (57%) and The Lion King (52%). Yet it falls short of the highs of The Jungle Book (94%) or Cinderella (84%). It’s actually right in range with 2017’s Beauty and the Beast, which scored 71%.
Let’s take that trip down memory lane for Disney’s output in this genre, shall we? In 2010, Alice in Wonderland won both Art Direction (now Production Design) and Costume Design and was nominated for its Visual Effects. 2014’s Maleficent also received a nod for its costuming and that happened a year later with Cinderella. In 2016, The Jungle Book was victorious for its Visual Effects. Beauty and the Beast received nominations the next year for Production Design and its costumes. Christopher Robin got a Visual Effects nod in 2019. And last year, The Lion King picked up a Visual Effects mention while Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was nominated for Makeup and Hairstyling.
You’ll notice that none of these pictures landed attention in the major categories and I don’t expect that Mulan will change that. When it comes to down the line nominations, I do expect this will contend in Production Design and Costume Design especially. Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling are also possibilities and maybe even Cinematography. And there’s also the matter of Best Original Song. Christina Aguilera, who sang the track “Reflection” over the end credits 22 years ago, has composed some original works here. She recently put out the single “Loyal Brave True” and it certainly could contend.
Bottom line: Mulan is unlikely to be the first live-action Disney remake to compete for the big prizes, but it should carry on the tradition of its technical achievements being noticed. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (09/08): I am downgrading my original estimate from $4.3 million down to just $2.3 million. Simply put, this probably would have been better off going the streaming route.
Sony Pictures is hoping that a young audience will turn out for next weekend’s The Broken Hearts Gallery. The romantic comedy comes from first time director Natalie Krinsky and was originally scheduled for a July release before the COVID-19 pandemic altered the plans. Executive produced by Selena Gomez, it stars Geraldine Viswanathan (best known for Blockers and HBO’s Bad Education) and Dacre Montgomery (Billy from Netflix’s Stranger Things). Costars include Utkarsh Ambudkar, Molly Gordon, and Bernadette Peters.
I’m a bit skeptical that this has any breakout potential. Many similar pics in this genre are based on novels with a hoped for built-in audience. Gallery doesn’t have that advantage or much star power to lure its intended demographic into the multiplex. The best hope for Sony is that this crowd is simply starved for anything to go see.
I don’t believe that’ll be enough to get this over $3 million.
The Broken Hearts Gallery opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Blogger’s Note (09/02): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping my four and five day estimates for Tenet up to $30.3M and $36.9M, respectively.
It is quite safe to assume that Labor Day weekend has never been the most interesting box office frame before in a calendar year. Traditionally it’s a slow one when studios don’t bother to put out potential hits as the blockbusters of summer wind down and companies ready their fall product.
2020 has upended all of that due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Christopher Nolan’s Tenet is by far the highest profile release this holiday weekend has ever witnessed. After a delay from July, the twisty thriller with John David Washington and Robert Pattinson is finally set to invade IMAX and regular screens on Thursday (with previews slated throughout this week). You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Tenet rolled out in numerous international markets (as well as our neighbor to the north) this past weekend and it blew away expectations with $53 million. That bodes quite well for its U.S. bow this week. A four-day weekend in the mid to high 20s is my best guesstimate with upwards of $30 million when factoring in the Thursday tally. And if this projection changes, I have a feeling it will go up.
This juggernaut will easily rule the weekend. In fact, based on minimal competition in September, it will probably be #1 for the entire month. As for current holdovers, The New Mutants should dip to 2nd with Unhinged in third position. I expect the sophomore dip for Mutants to be more pronounced than that of Unhinged.
And with that, I am moving from a top 2 predictions last weekend to a whole top 3 as the box office comeback kicks into high gear for September! All estimates are for the four-day long frame unless otherwise indicated.
1. Tenet
Predicted Gross: $30.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction); $36.9 million (Thursday to Monday)
2. The New Mutants
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
3. Unhinged
Predicted Gross: $1.8 million
Box Office Results (August 28-30)
Fox’s long-delayed and critically drubbed The New Mutants was a trouble production well before anyone knew what the coronavirus was. Originally set for 2018, this title in the X-Men Universe finally limped into theaters. That said, considering the circumstances, its performance was right at about the significantly lowered expectations at $7 million. I said $6.9 million.
Unhinged dropped to second with $2.6 million and that’s on pace with my $2.8 million estimate. The Russell Crowe road rage pic has taken in $8.8 million in two weeks.
In addition to her successful music career, Janelle Monae has transitioned nicely into the cinematic universe over the past few years. In fact, her three highest profile supporting performances – Moonlight, Hidden Figures, Harriet – have all garnered Oscar attention and nominations for her costars.
So it stood to at least wonder if her first major starring role could accomplish the same. The horror pic Antebellum was slated to hit theaters in April. Like so many other features in these COVID times, that plan was scuttled and it’s now set to debut on streaming services on September 18th. From directors Gerard Bush and Christopher Renz, it casts Monae as both a modern day author and a slave in the era of the Underground Railroad. The supporting players include Eric Lange, Jena Malone, Jack Huston, and Gabourey Sidibe.
There’s been a recent trend of actresses being lauded for their work in this genre. Both Lupita Nyong’o (Us) and Toni Collette (Hereditary) likely just missed inclusion in the final five for Best Actress in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The review embargo for Antebellum expired today and it certainly doesn’t appear as if Monae will join that club. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a meager 36% and several critics are calling this is a misfire.
Bottom line: while Monae’s involvement in projects has captured the attention of awards voters, she’ll need to wait for her turn as the focus. This one isn’t it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
For over two decades, Charlie Kaufman has been one of the most celebrated screenwriters in the business. His original written works have resulted in a nomination for 1999’s Being John Malkovich and a win for 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Kaufman picked up an Adapted Screenplay nod for 2002’s Adaptation. Additionally, his direction of the stop-motion tale Anomalisa in 2015 brought in a Best Animated Feature nomination.
Kaufman’s name on a project immediately brings awards buzz and his latest effort is I’m Thinking of Ending Things, which debuts on Netflix September 4th. Described as anti-romance and a horror flick, it marks the auteur’s third film behind the camera. Based on the 2016 novel by Iain Reid, Things stars Jessie Buckley, Jesse Plemons, Toni Collette, and David Thewlis.
The review embargo lapsed today and it currently stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a fine number, but some of the critical reaction mirrors 2008’s Synedoche, New York (Kaufman’s directorial debut). Hailed as a masterpiece by some with others calling it a bleak misfire, Things appears headed for a polarized mix and that will likely translate to Oscar voters.
As for the performers, it does appear Plemons would contend in lead actor (this was more uncertain previously). Several critics have compared his performance to that of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s in Synedoche. I have trouble envisioning him being a major contender here (though his supporting work in the upcoming Judas and the Black Messiah gives him another potential shot at a first time nod). Buckley got some chatter for her breakout role in last year’s Wild Rose. I feel her chances are a bit stronger than her costar, but the Best Actress race looks like it could be crowded in 2020. Despite many heralded performances, Collette has only received one Oscar nomination and it was over 20 years ago with The Sixth Sense. There could be a groundswell of support for her to be recognized, especially after many felt she were snubbed for 2018’s Hereditary. She may have the best chance for inclusion, but it too feels like a reach at the moment.
I’m thinking that Ending Things will contend in Adapted Screenplay and it certainly could be recognized there. We will have to see how this fall’s other heavy hitters land to see how full that race is. Even with some negative reaction, voters have shown their appreciation for Kaufman before and they may again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As is tradition on the blog, my weekly Oscar prediction posts (coming to you each Thursday) kick off in the final weekend of August!
So while I’m following up with my normal Academy Awards speculating schedule, I am doing so in a year that is anything but traditional. The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously altered release schedules for many pictures. This has left many release dates still uncertain.
Additionally, I have chosen this late August date because it’s usually right before some high-profile film festivals like Toronto, Venice, and Telluride are set to kick off. Some of these fests are continuing to operate in a much different fashion. We will see some of the titles identified below (including Nomadland, Ammonite and One Night in Miami) screen at these virtual competitions in the coming days.
This week, one significant contender had its unveiling for critics and that’s Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. That reaction leads me to believe that it will certainly contend in a half dozen or so technical races, but that a Picture or Directing nod is a bit of a long shot.
Even in a year without the pandemic related challenges, Oscar speculation this early always comes with numerous caveats. They include the following:
Release dates will change and some movies listed here will get pushed back. This sure applies to 2020 and that’s even with the Academy extending eligibility to any features released in January and February of 2021.
There will be pics and performances that come out of nowhere and make their way to the release calendar that aren’t identified here.
Some performances listed in lead will shift to supporting and vice versa. For titles like David Fincher’s Mank, Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch – category placement for their large casts is still a question mark. As an example, there’s lot of potential contenders in The French Dispatch, but it’s impossible to determine who gets the critical shine. For the time being, I’m not listing any of the actors in that particular film.
There will be Original Screenplay hopefuls that turn out to be Adapted and vice versa.
Even with all those caveats, I was able to identify the winners in each of the top 8 categories in both 2018 and 2019. Their numeric placement varied widely. In 2018, I had Best Picture victor Green Book all the way down at 21 of my first initial 25 possibilities. Roma director Alfonso Cuaron, on the other hand, was placed at #2. Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek was at #12 in Best Actor with Olivia Colman in The Favourite at 9th in Actress. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) was 9th and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) was 2nd in the supporting fields. Adapted Screenplay winner BlacKkKlansman was in fifth with Original Screenplay recipient Green Book at #11.
As for 2019, Best Picture winner Parasite was originally placed in slot #7 while its director Bong Joon-Ho was fifth. In the lead acting companions, Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) was 6th and Renee Zellweger (Judy) was fifth. In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) was perched at #1 and that never changed. Supporting Actress Laura Dern (Marriage Story) was #2. Adapted Screenplay Jojo Rabbit was fourth and Original Screenplay Parasite was 5th.
So based on history, you’re likely seeing the eventual 2020 Oscar winners somewhere here on these listings. In 2020, though, who really knows?
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Ammonite
6. Dune
7. News of the World
8. West Side Story
Other Possibilities
9. The French Dispatch
10. Hillbilly Elegy
11. On the Rocks
12. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Annette
14. Soul
15. Tenet
16. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
17. The Father
18. Minari
19. C’Mon C’Mon
20. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
21. Stillwater
22. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
23. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
24. Next Goal Wins
25. French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
10. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
11. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
12. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Christopher Nolan, Tenet
14. Leos Carax. Annette
15. Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Julianne Moore, The Glorias
10. Marion Cotillard, Annette
11. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
12. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
13. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
14. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
2. Gary Oldman, Mank
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
8. Adam Driver, Annette
9. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
11. Timothee Chalamet, Dune
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
13. Matt Damon, Stillwater
14. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
15. Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
3. Olivia Colman, The Father
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
7. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
8. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
10. Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
11. Mary J. Blige, Respect
12. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
13. Meryl Streep, The Prom
14. Nicole Kidman, The Prom
15. Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Strathairn, Nomadland
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Burke, Mank
7. Tom Pelphrey, Mank
8. David Alvarez, West Side Story
9. Lucas Hedges, French Exit
10. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
11. Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
12. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
13. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
14. Oscar Isaac, Dune
15. Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. Ammonite
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul
7. On the Rocks
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. C’Mon C’Mon
10. Minari
11. Stillwater
12. French Exit
13. Annette
14. Tenet
15. Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. West Side Story
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father
7. Hillbilly Elegy
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
9. Next Goal Wins
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
11. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
12. The White Tiger
13. One Night in Miami
14. Respect
15. The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it next Thursday, folks! Until then…
Blogger’s Note (09/02): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping my estimate from $31.9 million to $36.9 million. Those adjustments are reflected in the numbers below.
Let’s start here – Christopher Nolan’s Tenet is maybe the most challenging box office prediction I’ve ever had to write. This is, of course, mostly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet this isn’t the only reason.
After a series of coronavirus related delays that altered its planned July premiere, the epic spy thriller is set for an extended Labor Day weekend premiere. It marks the latest mega budget (north of $200 million) feature from one of the few directors whose name is the main attraction. The recognizable actors in front of the camera include John David Washington, Robert Pattinson, Elizabeth Debicki, Michael Caine, and Kenneth Branagh.
Tenet is out tomorrow (August 26) in numerous territories including Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy. The international rollout could provide clues as to how it will perform stateside. That occurs on Thursday, September 3rd and runs through the holiday weekend. Speaking of Labor Day, this is traditionally considered a slow weekend at the box office as the summer season draws to a close. Like everything else this year, 2020 is far different.
While Unhinged and this weekend’s The New Mutants are the first two wide releases post COVID, Tenet is by far the most eagerly awaited and high profile. There was never any doubt that this would open theatrically and on some IMAX venues. The VOD route was never explored. While a screen count is not yet available, I’m currently assuming it’ll be around 2500. If that changes, my prediction might too.
Reviews are mostly solid with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 82%. That said, some critical reaction is a bit on the mixed side. Unlike 2017’s Dunkirk, this follow-up is not generating immediate awards buzz. As mentioned, Nolan is a bankable commodity with or without Oscar chatter. You have to go back to 2006’s The Prestige to find the last entry in his filmography to gross under $100 million domestically. Both Dunkirk and its predecessor Interstellar grossed close to $200 million overall in the States. His Batman trilogy and Inception all took in north of $200 million or far more.
So where does that leaves us? Looking at Interstellar and Dunkirk, both titles achieved per theater averages of just over $13,000 for respective starts of $47 million and $50 million. The difference is that Interstellar began on 3500+ plus screens and Dunkirk at 3700+.
Due to the lower availability of venues (especially in major markets like NYC and LA) and the ongoing uncertainty of major audience turnout, giving Tenet a $10,000 per screen average would equate to around $25 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of its five-day start. I’m choosing to ratchet that up to $25.7 million. Adding Thursday and Labor Day in, I’ll kick in another $11.2 million.
Let’s end here – I am still in severe guesstimating mode and Tenet is undoubtedly the first giant test case in this new cinematic reality. Over the next few days, it’s certainly feasible that I will update this estimate. We shall see, but here’s where I stand as of now.
Tenet opening weekend prediction (Thursday, September 3-Monday, September 7): $36.9 million
***Blogger’s Note (08/27/20): My prediction for Mutants is up from $4.9M to $6.9M
For the first Monday in nearly six months, I have meaningful box office predictions and results to report! As the movie watching world is aware, upstart Solstice Studios was first out of the gate with a wide theatrical release over the weekend. Russell Crowe’s Unhinged was the test case. The results are pretty encouraging as the thriller took in $4 million on just north of 1800 screens.
This is a tad below my $4.6 million projection, but it’s a sign that audiences are at least amenable to returning to multiplexes. We don’t have to wait long until the next experiment. It comes this weekend with The New Mutants, which was originally slated to hit screens in 2018. The latest title in the X-Men franchise has a troubled past and Fox (now owned by Disney) doesn’t seem to have much confidence with it. My detailed prediction post on Mutants can be found here:
As you can see, I question whether it can make over $5 million. I think lots of casual filmgoers aren’t even aware it exists in the same universe as Wolverine, Mystique, Professor X, and Magneto.
For the second weekend of Unhinged, I anticipate a smallish drop-off percentage wise. We have witnessed this in other territories as patrons are taking their time to sample the new product in a COVID-19 world. I’ll say a 31% dip sounds about right.
It will take an undetermined amount of time before my weekend predictions look like they did pre-COVID. Yet they’re back and here’s how I foresee the top two this weekend:
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