A fascinating factoid is out now that the U.S. Presidential Election of 2020 is in the rearview. As fans of the James Bond franchise are aware, we are now approaching the 60th anniversary of the series in 2022. The release of No Time to Die will mark the 25th official feature in the 007 canon when it (hopefully) debuts in 2021. As you are likely aware, the fifth and final Daniel Craig appearance as the British super spy was originally slated for April 2020 before its COVID-19 related delay.
Why am I saying all of this as it relates to the election that just happened? Well, it turns out that the Trump presidency will be the first since the series began in which no James Bond picture was released. That means there have been 10 U.S. Presidencies in a row where 007 appeared on the silver screen… from Kennedy to Obama. Until now. This will clearly resume when No Time is released in plenty of time for when Joe Biden sits in the Oval Office.
Based on this interesting little nugget of trivia info, I thought it might be fun to run through the movies that were released under each former POTUS and take stock with how their administrations matched up with Bond’s adventures onscreen:
The Presidency of John F. Kennedy
The Bond Pictures: Dr. No (1962)
It seems more than appropriate that this franchise started under JFK’s tenure. President Kennedy was a self-professed fan of the Ian Fleming novels. The producers of Bond actually chose From Russia with Love to be the second in the series because JFK singled it out as a favorite book. Sadly, the last movie the President ever watched at the White House was From Russia (months before its actual US release, though it was out in the UK). That was on November 20. Two days later is when Kennedy took the fateful trip to Dallas.
The Presidency of Lyndon Johnson
The Bond Pictures: From Russia with Love (1963), Goldfinger (1964), Thunderball (1965), You Only Live Twice (1967)
I would say it’s hard to argue that Johnson’s time in the White House isn’t the most impressive when it comes to the 007 catalogue. This was, of course, the heyday of Sean Connery’s time in the role which turned him into an international superstar. The first two titles on the board are often cited as the greatest of the bunch (my personal favorite is Russia).
The Presidency of Richard Nixon
The Bond Pictures: On Her Majesty’s Secret Service (1969), Diamonds Are Forever (1971), Live and Let Die (1973)
Nixon wins having the most Bonds during his time in office. There were three as his Presidency marked George Lazenby’s one off in Service, Connery’s return in Diamonds, and Roger Moore’s first outing with Live. I would also say the trio is all somewhat underwhelming to a degree (though I know the Service diehards will not appreciate that statement).
The Presidency of Gerald Ford
The Bond Pictures: The Man with the Golden Gun (1974)
Pretty slim picking for Mr. Ford with Moore’s second go-round as 007. This is deservedly considered one of the weakest in the franchise.
The Presidency of Jimmy Carter
The Bond Pictures: The Spy Who Loved Me (1977), Moonraker (1979)
The best of times and worst of times for Roger Moore matched with the Carter Administration. I would easily call Spy the finest Moore pic in his run while Moonraker is the low point.
The Presidency of Ronald Reagan
The Bond Pictures: For Your Eyes Only (1981), Octopussy (1983), A View to a Kill (1985), The Living Daylights (1987)
It’s appropriate that some of the titles here incorporate the Cold War activities happening in Reagan’s 1980s era. The list here includes two solid Moore outings (yes, I think Octopussy is quite good) and the middling finale of View. It also marks Timothy Dalton’s fairly pleasing debut in Daylights. As a side note, while not considered an official Bond pic in the canon sense, Sean Connery returned to his signature part with 1983’s Never Say Never Again.
The Presidency of George H.W. Bush
The Bond Pictures: Licence to Kill (1989)
The last one term President until now had just one 007 flick. I maintain that Licence may be just the most underrated one of the whole series. It was Dalton’s swan song for his brief tenure.
The Presidency of Bill Clinton
The Bond Pictures: Goldeneye (1995), Tomorrow Never Dies (1997), The World Is Not Enough (1999)
The Clinton Era matches with the Pierce Brosnan era as the franchise was revitalized financially with these three blockbusters which were all decent in quality.
The Presidency of George W. Bush
The Bond Pictures: Die Another Day (2002), Casino Royale (2006), Quantum of Solace (2008)
A mixed bag. I consider Brosnan’s finale of Day to be the worst James Bond adventure of all time. On the other hand, Daniel Craig’s emergence in Royale is second only to From Russia with Love in my opinion. Quantum was just OK and the weakest of the Craig pics.
The Presidency of Barack Obama
The Bond Pictures: Skyfall (2012), Spectre (2015)
Bond reached a billion dollars in the Obama era with Skyfall, rightfully considered one of the strongest of the two dozen pictures. Spectre didn’t match its quality, but was still pretty good.
The Presidency of Donald Trump
As I said… nada. No Time to Die would have been the one Trump time release if not for the pandemic. It will instead be unveiled when President Biden is in office and there could be even be a new 007 under his Presidency depending on how quickly the studio casts a new spy.
Junebug. Doubt. The Fighter. The Master. American Hustle. Vice.
The World According to Garp. The Big Chill. The Natural. Fatal Attraction. Dangerous Liaisons. Albert Nobbs. The Wife.
These 13 pictures represent, respectively, the number of Oscar nominations received by Amy Adams and Glenn Close. And there’s not a podium trip for either performer in the whole batch. It’s certainly fair to say that these actresses are both considered overdue for Academy gold. So it is no surprise that their headlining roles in Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy have been circled for consideration of Oscar prognosticators for many months.
Based on J.D. Vance’s hugely popular 2016 bestseller, the adaptation hits Netflix on November 24th. The review embargo ended today. The critics have spoken and done so rather sharply. At press time, the Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a troubling 19%. However, before you write off the pic’s chances for any awards attention, you have to dig a bit deeper.
The trailer released weeks ago was met with some derision, but also some chatter that Close in particular has a very baity part for voters. The reviews today solidify that. I have had Close perched at #1 for some time in my weekly estimates in Supporting Actress. It is certainly possible that she stays right there when I update my projections on Friday. Ironically, her biggest competition may come from Olivia Colman in The Father. For those with short memories, it was Colman in The Favourite who scored an upset win over Close for The Wife in Best Actress just two years ago. There’s also Amanda Seyfried (Mank) generating solid buzz. That said, the 8th time may just finally be the charm for Close. Whether she can overcome the otherwise poor reaction from the critical community will be the question moving forward.
As for Adams, it’s more murky. Best Actress in 2020 is already shaping up as a crowded field. I’ve had Adams listed in third position for about a month, but now I’m questioning whether she even makes the final cut. Look for her to be in the 5-7 range when my Friday post is up and running.
Elegy could follow the example of 2013’s August: Osage County where its only nominations come for its two high-profile actresses (in that case it was Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts). The mostly weak reviews probably take it out of contention for Picture and Director. Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay by Vanessa Taylor (who was nominated in 2017 for her Original Screenplay in The Shape of Water). Lucky for Netflix, it has plenty of product that does appear headed for Best Picture inclusion (from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Mank to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). There are two more nods that are feasible: Hans Zimmer’s score and its Makeup and Hairstyling.
Bottom line: Close is still a contender, but that’s the only category where I believe a victory is even imaginable. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions begin with a blogger’s note. For the past two and a half months, I’ve been providing these updates each Thursday. This will now switch to every Friday (busy work schedule is the reason).
And we move on with a significant development in the rankings. For the first time since I began these predictions, the #1 slot for Best Picture is not named Mank. The David Fincher Netflix pic had its official review embargo lift today. Some of the critical reaction is excellent. Other write-ups, while still overwhelmingly positive, call into question whether this will take the biggest prize of all. It certainly still could in my estimation, but I’m currently giving an ever so slight advantage to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland (and with The Trial of the Chicago 7 not far behind). I am still listing Fincher in top position with Director as I could envision a victory being a partial career achievement award. That said, Zhao is right on his heels as she would be the second female filmmaker ever to take the gold.
We continue to Best Actor as Amazon has confirmed the acting placements for the performers in Regina King’s One Night in Miami. Of note is that Kingsley Ben-Adir will be campaigned for in Best Actor with Leslie Odom Jr. vying for Supporting Actor. In my view, this increases the chances for both to make the cut as they won’t be competing against each other. Odom was already on my Supporting list last week. Ben-Adir jumps into the Actor final five and that’s to the detriment of Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya could absolutely still get in, but there’s uncertainty as to whether he will be campaigned for in Actor or Supporting Actor. There’s also no confirmation yet as to when Warner Bros. will release the picture. So for now, he’s on the outside looking in until further information is provided.
The Actress and Supporting Actress contests remain the same without even any ranking alterations. That’s not to indicate those races aren’t fluid. There just wasn’t anything major in the past week to shift my thinking in the past 8 days.
Finally, Disney has delayed the release dates of both Death on the Nile and Free Guy to 2021 TBD. The former was a potential nominee in several tech races such as Costume Design and Production Design. The latter could have been a hopeful in Visual Effects.
And with that, let’s get to the guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Minari (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
14. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 9)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 4)
4. Onward (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. Lupin III: The First (PR: 8)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 2)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. 76 Days (PR: 8)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
8. True Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wife of a Spy
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Rebecca (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 10)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 4)
5. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 10)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. Rebecca (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 4)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
10. Dolittle (PR: 9)
And this equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Tenet
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Rebecca
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, My Little Sister, New Order, On the Rocks, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
A slasher version of Freaky Friday comes from the Blumhouse shop with the release of Freaky next weekend. The low budget horror flick features a high school senior (Kathryn Newton) who switches bodies with a serial killer (Vince Vaughn). Christopher Landon (who made Happy Death Day and its sequel) directs and costars include Katie Finneran and Alan Ruck.
Shot for a reported $5 million, its studio has often excelled at turning a tidy profit for its ventures. Early reviews are encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating with particular praise for its two leads. The theatrical window here is unique as it opens on Friday on the 13th and will be available for streaming just three weeks later in early December.
The solid critical reaction and Blumhouse’s marketing talents could push Freaky to make its budget back in the initial weekend. I’ll project that it will.
Focus Features is hopeful that an adult audience will turn out this weekend with their dramatic thriller Let Him Go. From director Thomas Bezucha, Diane Lane and Kevin Costner headline as a couple mourning the loss of their son and trying to save their grandchild from a dangerous situation. Costars include Lesley Manville, Will Brittain, and Jeffrey Donovan.
Originally slated for August before the inevitable COVID-19 delay, Go has screened for critics and the results are pretty positive. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 74% based on nearly 20 reviews. Costner has been particularly visible as of late with strong ratings for his Paramount Network TV show Yellowstone. In a different reality, the pic could serve as shrewd counter programming for older viewers who might turn out.
The obvious question: will they do so during these times? The decent critical reaction might help, but I question whether this gets beyond $2 million out of the gate. I’ll put it right at that number and anything above would likely be considered a pleasant surprise.
It is, quite simply, the greatest screen introduction of all time. Nearly 60 years ago, the suave tuxedoed super agent lighting his cigarette in the posh casino and uttering three words that changed cinematic history.
“Bond. James Bond.”
They were, of course, spoken by Sean Connery. And that line of dialogue, flawlessly delivered, kicked off the franchise of all franchises. The role of 007 was followed by George Lazenby, Roger Moore, Timothy Dalton, Pierce Brosnan, and Daniel Craig. Yet to most lovers of the art form – Connery is Bond. He perfected Ian Fleming’s British hero from the start in Dr. No and continued to do so in the seminole pictures from the series including From Russia with Love and Goldfinger.
When a performer passes on, as Connery has at age 90, it’s easy to delve into hyperbole. That doesn’t apply here. The man truly was and is an icon. Just being the best and original Bond would be enough to cement that legacy.
However, there’s plenty more. His Oscar winning turn as the tough and gruff Malone in Brian De Palma’s The Untouchables. His role as the father to Indiana Jones in The Last Crusade. Being Alfred Hitchcock’s leading man in Marnie. His Soviet captain in The Hunt for Red October. The escape artist opposite Nicolas Cage in The Rock. His shining star among other legends in Murder on the Orient Express.
The man who will always be Bond and much more may be gone, but that famous introduction and hours of additional first rate entertainment will be there for us to appreciate. And nobody looked cooler providing it to us.
Sean Connery. Icon. August 25, 1930-October 31, 2020.
Added to the long list of potential nominations for Netflix is the release of The Life Ahead on November 13th. The Italian drama marks a return to the silver screen for the legendary Sophia Loren at the age of 86. It’s a family affair as the feature is directed by her son Edoardo Ponti. Early reviews are out and they’re positive with much of the focus on its leading lady.
As has been discussed on the blog previously, Best Actress is shaping up to be a crowded field in 2020. Even with Respect delayed until summer 2021 which takes Jennifer Hudson out of the mix, there are plenty of hopefuls. Even without being screened at the moment, Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seems like a safe bet. Same goes for Frances McDormand in Nomadland. Then it gets interesting. For the remaining three spots, there are plenty of contenders: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy, Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman, Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit, Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman, Kate Winslet for Ammonite, and Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Loren is absolutely part of the mix. In my rankings yesterday, I had Loren at sixth and just on the outside looking in. She is a previous Oscar winner and it was all of 59 years back for Two Women. Her last nomination was 55 years ago for Marriage Italian Style. The Oscars love a good storyline and Loren getting nominated after that long gap certainly constitutes one. In fact, it would set the Academy’s record for longest wait between nominations.
A Best Actress nod isn’t the only race where Life will contend. If Italy submits it as their International Feature player, it could certainly land recognition there. Furthermore, producer Diane Warren has the original song “Seen”. She’s an 11-time nominee who’s never won and early buzz suggests #12 is coming with this composition.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Loren enters the top five at some point and that chatter could increase once viewers get a look in a couple of weeks. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
For two months now, I have had David Fincher’s Mank ranked at the top of the Best Picture contenders and that was with zero buzz about its quality. Why? The biographical drama, which tells the saga of Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman) and his battles with the bottle and the making of the film, sounded like Oscar bait from its announcement. Fincher is, of course, a heralded filmmaker who’s seen two of his pictures (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network) nab Best Picture nods. Neither won, but many (including this blogger) feel that Network should have done so over The King’s Speech a decade ago.
Ahead of its November 13th limited theatrical bow and December 4th Netflix streaming debut, Mank screened for critics yesterday. While the official embargo has yet to lapse, reaction is out. And it confirms that Fincher’s first pic in six years (since Gone Girl) should score plenty of nominations. As I’ve estimated for several weeks, you would be smart to bet that this will receive the most mentions on nomination morning.
Let’s break them down. Picture and Director appear to be foregone conclusions at this juncture. Gary Oldman is highly likely to get his third Best Actor nomination. That said, after winning just three years ago for Darkest Hour, I don’t foresee a victory. On a side note, the Best Actress winner from 2017 (Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) also looks like a locked in nominee in 2020 for Nomadland. Amanda Seyfried appears poised for her first nomination in Supporting Actress in her role as Marion Davies. Supporting Actor is more murky. While Charles Dance as William Randolph Hearst could sneak in, the race is quite crowded. I wouldn’t count on Dance or costars Tom Pelphrey or Arliss Howard getting in over the considerable competition. Many come from the same streaming service like the cast of The Trial of the Chicago 7 (most notably Mark Rylance and Sacha Baron Cohen) and the late Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods.
The screenplay is solely credited to the director’s deceased father Jack. An Original Screenplay nod is inevitable with the biggest competition so far being Aaron Sorkin for Trial. The tech race possibilities are plentiful: Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score (from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross), Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling. All in all, Mank could conceivably hit about a dozen nominations.
Now let’s get serious. Could it win Best Picture? Some early buzz suggests it might be too geared toward cinephiles and not a mass audience to achieve that. I’m not so sure. I would say the same could be said for recent winners like The Artist and Birdman. Hollywood loves features about its own industry and this might be the granddaddy of them all considering the subject matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mank is still listed in first place when I update my guesstimates next Thursday. I am confident it will never fall below the upper echelon. As for Fincher, he may well be in line for a Director victory and that’s even if Mank doesn’t win the biggest prize. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.
My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.
His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods.
There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman.
All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 11)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Audra McDonald, Respect
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Next Goal Wins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
I Am Greta
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 3)
3. Another Round (PR: 2)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: 9)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. Rebecca (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 9)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Emma (PR: 3)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Death on the Nile
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. News of the World (PR: 2)
4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Over the Moon
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 4)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Rebecca (PR: 7)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Death on the Nile
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Greyhound (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
Garrett Bradley’s documentary Time hit streaming on Amazon Prime this month after winning accolades earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival. Focused on a wife trying to free her husband from a 60-year prison sentence, the pic earned Bradley the directing prize for its genre at the aforementioned fest in January. She is the first African American female to win the prize.
Time stands at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes with 90 reviews up. As the Documentary Feature category is still taking shape, this joins several others as legit possibilities. It has yet to enter my top ten contenders in my weekly Thursday estimates, but expect that to change in the next write-up. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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