Tag: movies

Oscar Predictions: May December

The Cannes Film Festival can quickly confirm or deny the awards prospects for its screeners. Just today, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon (as expected) solidified its standing as a player in multiple races including the big one. On other hand, anyone thinking that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny had a Top Gun: Maverick level shot at breaking into Oscar territory were disabused of that notion upon its unveiling.

Then there’s cases where it’s murkier and May December from Todd Haynes falls into that category. The word campy is being used more than any other I’ve seen in this tale of a Hollywood actress (Natalie Portman) shadowing Julianne Moore. She plays a tabloid star known for bedding a 13-year-old who’s now her adult husband (Charles Melton).

Haynes has yet to see any of his pictures, including the acclaimed Far From Heaven, I’m Not There, and Carol, contend for Best Picture. He has, on the other hand, seen his performers get nominated. Moore was up in lead for Heaven while Cate Blanchett received a Supporting Actress mention for There. For Carol, Blanchett was nominated again (this time for Actress) while Rooney Mara made the cut in Supporting Actress.

With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time, December is receiving some glowing reviews mixed with more subdued appreciation. Whatever distributor picks it up (which I’m sure is imminent) is bound to mount a campaign. Its chances in the acting derbies are probably higher than Picture or Director (though I wouldn’t count out Samy Burch’s original screenplay).

Category placement will be fascinating to watch. From what I’ve read, Portman and Moore appear to be co-leads. That doesn’t mean they won’t be split and one believable scenario is Portman in lead with Moore in supporting. They are both former winners in Best Actress: Portman for 2010’s Black Swan and Moore in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Melton, the former Riverdale performer appears to be a Supporting Actor play. All three should be in the mix for contention.

There’s another category placement story. At the Golden Globes, December could be placed in Musical/Comedy where its chances at noms might be stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Killers of the Flower Moon

All 206 minutes of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon have been breathlessly awaited by pundits ahead of its Cannes premiere. That occurred today some five months before its domestic release. The crime western reunites the legendary filmmaker with his two most famous and frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in this adaptation of David Grann’s 2017 non-fiction novel. Lily Gladstone (in what’s long been pegged as a role with awards potential) costars alongside Jesse Plemons, Brendan Fraser, and John Lithgow.

On paper, Killers has looked like a surefire contender for Oscar glory ever since it was announced. Scorsese has seen five of his past eight films nominated for Best Picture: The Aviator, The Departed (which won), Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman. As mentioned, the 1920s set tale of murders among the Osage Nation comes with a runtime that just exceeds its reported $200 million budget. Apple TV footed the bill, but it will see a theatrical bow prior to any streaming release.

Some of the early critical reaction does gripe about the length (same went for Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman). Yet most reviews indicate this will be the gold player that we assumed. That last Marty movie scored 10 nods. This could match it or even exceed it. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by the director and Eric Roth), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound are all feasible. The early Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%.

As for the acting derbies, Leonardo DiCaprio is drawing raves and should be in line for his seventh acting nom (his sole win being 2015’s The Revenant). There was some question as to whether Gladstone would contend in lead or supporting. The buzz indicates the latter is more likely and it appears she’s a shoo-in for inclusion. I had her at #1 in my ranked predictions a few days ago and that may not change. A bigger question was Supporting Actor. It sounds like the role Jesse Plemons plays is relatively small (popping up in the third act). He could still sneak in (as he did in 2021 for The Power of the Dog). The studio’s campaigners could opt to throw their full attention to De Niro. The 79-year-old new dad looks to grab his eighth nod and first since 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. You can pencil him in with DiCaprio and Gladstone.

Can you find the nominees in this picture? There could be plenty for Killers of the Flower Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Kandahar Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million

Gerard Butler hopes to land a solid opening with Kandahar, his latest action thriller that reunites him with Angel Has Fallen director Ric Roman Waugh. Rolling out over the long Memorial Day weekend, costars include Navid Negahban, Ali Fazal, Bahador Foladi, Nina Toussaint-White, and Travis Fimmel.

Looking over the recent filmography, Butler’s efforts have posted divergent results. Den of Thieves made just north of $15 million five years ago. On the flip side, Hunter Killer from 2018 only did $6.6 million.

Plane from this January also premiered over a four-day MLK frame with $11.8 million overall on its way to $32 million domestically. Its simple concept may sell better than Kandahar. I’ll project the Friday to Monday take falls below double digits.

Kandahar opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Little Mermaid prediction, click here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

For my About My Father prediction, click here:

About My Father Box Office Prediction

For my The Machine prediction, click here:

The Machine Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The New Boy

If not for Michelle Yeoh and the Oscar juggernaut that was Everything Everywhere All at Once, Cate Blanchett likely would’ve taken home her third statue in lead Actress for Tár. That original home is Australia and Blanchett produces and stars in The New Boy, a 1940s set drama that takes place on the continent.

Directed by Warwick Thornton, it casts Aswan Reid as an Aboriginal orphan at a monastery run by Blanchett’s nun. Costars include Deborah Mailman and Wayne Blair. Slated to hit Australia in July with a domestic release TBD, Boy has premiered at Cannes to mostly decent reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 80% based on the handful of reactions.

Yet I don’t see a real path for this to receive awards attention. While the small number of critics so far are positive, the write-ups aren’t exactly raves. Judging from the lead performer’s track record, she probably won’t have to wait too long until her next nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Machine Box Office Prediction

Popular comedian and podcaster Bert Kreischer takes a true tale from his stand-up routine and converts it to film with The Machine. The raucous pic has the lead playing himself with Mark Hamill portraying his dad as they are kidnapped by the Russian Mob. Jessica Gabor, Iva Babić, Jimmy Tatro, and Stephanie Kurtzuba costar. Peter Atencio (in his follow-up to Keanu) directs.

While Kreischer certainly has a following, I’m not convinced a significant number of his fans will make the multiplex trek. Plenty may just wait until it’s available to stream (several comedies in general have struggled in theaters recently). Then there’s About My Father with Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro which debuts against it and could siphon away those looking for a laugh.

Over the four-day Memorial weekend, I’m not sure it gets to $5 million and I’ll project it won’t.

The Machine opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Little Mermaid prediction, click here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

For my About My Father prediction, click here:

About My Father Box Office Prediction

For my Kandahar prediction, click here:

Kandahar Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Zone of Interest

Jonathan Glazer takes his time between projects. Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest is his fourth feature in two decades plus. Starting out as a commercial and music video maker, his 2000 debut was the acclaimed Sexy Beast which earned Ben Kingsley a Supporting Actor nod. Follow-up Birth in 2004 nabbed Nicole Kidman an Actress nom at the Golden Globes in Actress (Drama). Glazer’s third effort Under the Skin from 2013 with Scarlett Johansson wasn’t an Oscar or Globes player, but the sci-fi pic garnered plenty of rapturous reviews.

A decade later, Interest may well put him in an awards zone beyond the actors he’s directing. Based on a 2014 novel by Martin Amis, the cast is led by Sandra Hüller, Christian Friedel, Medusa Knopf, and Daniel Holzberg.

Chilling is a word I’ve seen used to describe Zone in more than one write-up coming out of the Cannes debut. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% thus far. Hüller, recipient of various nominations in Europe for 2016’s Toni Erdmann, is drawing raves for her performance as the wife of Friedel’s concentration camp commandant.

With the right marketing push from A24 (and I think we can assume they’ll make a dedicated one), this should be a potential contender for Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography. International Feature Film might be a given. If it truly resonates with voters, other down-the-line races like Film Editing and Score and Sound could be in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Black Flies

Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is one of the highest profile debuts at Cannes and it is scheduled for its unveiling tomorrow. French filmmaker Jean-Stéphane Sauvaire’s Black Flies is more under the radar, but the buzz has compared the plot to Scorsese’s 1999 effort Bringing Out the Dead.

The NYC set dramatic thriller casts Tye Sheridan as an aspiring med student paired with Sean Penn’s grizzled paramedic. Costars include Katherine Waterston, Michael Pitt, and Mike Tyson (yes… the former heavyweight champ/Hangover highlight).

The Rotten Tomatoes score is a lowly 17% with critics griping about its ultra bleak storyline. Based on the reviews so far, Flies definitely won’t be bringing out the awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sanctuary

Zachary Wigon’s Sanctuary premiered at the Toronto Film Festival eight months ago to sizzling buzz, but it’s just hitting screens in limited fashion tomorrow. The two-hander casts Margaret Qualley as a dominatrix with Christopher Abbott as her wealthy client.

Reviews for the satirical thriller are impressive and it sits at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 40 reviews in. Neon picked up the distribution rights after it debuted up north. Critics are praising the two leads and the original screenplay from Micah Bloomberg.

Despite the love, I doubt this will dominate next year’s Academy Awards. The subject matter may simply be a little much and it could simply fade away given the early release date. Don’t be surprised, though, if Qualley and the script pop up in some critics groups mentions a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

At last year’s Cannes Film Festival, Top Gun: Maverick screened at Cannes and that premiere kicked off its soaring buzz. The eventual result was box office nearing $1.5 billion and six Oscar nominations (including Picture). Disney would love for a similar result with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the fifth adventure in a franchise that began with an iconic 80s classic.

Harrison Ford dons the fedora once again (and for the final time) 42 years after Raiders of the Lost Ark. Steven Spielberg has handed over directorial duties to James Mangold. Costars for the reported $300 million production include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, John Rhys-Davies (as series favorite Sallah), Shaunette Renée Wilson, Thomas Kretschmann, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.

It’s been 15 years since previous entry Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (which was also unveiled in the south of France). Let’s catch up on the Academy’s history and their love for Dr. Jones (or lack thereof). Raiders, back in 1981, nabbed 8 nominations (including Picture and Director though not Actor for Ford). The win total was four (Art Direction, Film Editing, Score, Visual Effects). Three years later, Temple of Doom managed two mentions in Score and Visual Effects (winning the latter). 1989’s Last Crusade received three nods and took the now defunct Special Effects Editing race. In 2008, Skull was derided by many critics and filmgoers. It was blanked at the Oscars.

We are obviously very early when it comes to reviews for Destiny. However, signs are troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes score (based on 7 write-ups) is 43%. Social media reaction from those in attendance overseas is also quite mixed. A safe assumption is this won’t be the next Maverick. I suppose John Williams in Score or Sound or Visual Effects (though there are gripes about this digitization) is feasible. Another likely result is this ends up contending in the same number of competitions as its predecessor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

About My Father Box Office Prediction

Stand-up Sebastian Maniscalco hopes audiences take a seat for the autobiographical About My Father, a cultural comedy that he stars in and cowrote. Laura Terruso directs with Robert De Niro playing the lead’s father who meets the parents of his son’s would-be fiancee. Costars include Leslie Bibb, Anders Holm, David Rasche, and Kim Cattrall.

Releasing over the long Memorial Day weekend, Father faces competition from another laugher headlined by a popular comedian. That would be The Machine with Bert Kreischer and it’ll interesting to track which comes out on top. Many comedies in recent years have faced tough odds at multiplexes. Both could suffer.

Maniscalco’s filmography is limited and consists of no high profile starring roles until now (he did play a supporting part alongside De Niro in The Irishman). I suspect this could fail to reach double digits over the four-day. A worst case scenario would be around $5 million. I’ll give it a little more credit.

About My Father opening weekend prediction: $6.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Little Mermaid prediction, click here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

For my The Machine prediction, click here:

The Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Kandahar prediction, click here:

Kandahar Box Office Prediction