Tag: Morris Chestnut

When the Bough Breaks Box Office Prediction

Screen Gems has quite a profitable enterprise going for the last two years and will try to keep it up for a third with When the Bough Breaks, opening next weekend. The thriller stars Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Jaz Sinclair and was produced for a mere $13 million.

In 2014, the studio put out the similarly themed No Good Deed. The result was a $24.2 million opening. Last year, it was The Perfect Guy (also featuring Chestnut) and it took in $25.9 million for its start. These romantic potboilers have largely appealed to African-American female audiences over 30 and are pretty much critic proof (Perfect Guy didn’t bother to screen for reviewers).

I don’t see much reason why Bough wouldn’t break out in the same way. In fact, I believe it stands an excellent chance at being #1 next weekend over the Clint Eastwood directed/Tom Hanks starring Sully. A debut in the low to mid 20s looks probable for another Screen Gems cash cow.

When the Bough Breaks opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million

For my Sully prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/sully-box-office-prediction/

For my The Disappointments Room prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/

For my The Wild Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/02/the-wild-life-box-office-prediction/

The Perfect Guy Box Office Prediction

This coming Friday, the romantic thriller The Perfect Guy hits theaters and it could make a legitimate play for the #1 spot. Sanaa Lathan, Michael Ealy, and Morris Chestnut headline the Screen Gems release and it should be quite successful in bringing in its intended African American audience.

For comparison sake, one only needs to look to last September. The similarly themed No Good Deed with Taraji P. Henson and Idris Elba opened on the same weekend to the tune of $24.5 million with an eventual $54 million domestic gross. Another similar genre, 2009’s Obsessed with Beyonce and Elba, made $28 million out of the gate. Those titles had a little more star power than The Perfect Guy and it may not quite reach the numbers they accomplished. Still, it seems like a fairly solid bet to cross the $20M mark.

The Perfect Guy opening weekend prediction: $21.9 million

For my prediction on The Visit, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/04/the-visit-box-office-prediction/

For my 90 Minutes in Heaven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/04/90-minutes-in-heaven-box-office-prediction/

The Best Man Holiday Box Office Prediction

This coming weekend was supposed to see the debut of Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited The Wolf of Wall Street, but the title ended up getting pushed back to Christmas Day to allow the director more time to tinker. It surely would have opened in the number two spot.

Therefore, we have only one new picture opening and it’s The Best Man Holiday, a sequel to 1999’s The Best Man. The original pic grossed a solid $34 million fourteen years ago (it only had a $9M budget). Starring Taye Diggs, Nia Long, Terrence Howard, Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Sanaa Lathan, the holiday themed comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a large contingent of African-American audiences to the multiplex.

Its prospects look pretty decent. The stars of the film are certainly more well-known today than they were several years ago and there’s really no direct competition for its demographic. If something like Baggage Claim can make $9 million in its debut, The Best Man Holiday should easily surpass that. I could envision this getting as high as low 20s, as several of Tyler Perry’s recent productions have. It could also be somewhere in the mid-teens. With that range stated, I’ll go in the middle of it and say it earns high teens for a solid second place debut after weekend #2 for Thor.

The Best Man Holiday opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million