Now in its 22nd year of existence, Tom Cruise’s signature franchise keeps rolling along as Mission: Impossible – Fallout, the sixth offering in the series debuts stateside next weekend. Christopher McQuarrie is the first director to come back behind the camera (he made 2015’s predecessor Rogue Nation) for repeat work after Brian De Palma, John Woo, J.J. Abrams, and Brad Bird made their stand-alone entries. Returning cast members from previous installments include Rebecca Ferguson, Simon Pegg, Ving Rhames, Michelle Monaghan, and Alec Baldwin. Newcomers include Henry Cavill and Angela Bassett.
The buzz for Fallout indicates it could be a high mark in the long running franchise. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 93% with some critics claiming it’s the best of the bunch thus far. It’s particularly being praised for its action scenes and stunt work (which actually caused its mega-watt star to break an ankle on set). Even with the generous helping of sequels and genre pics out there (Skyscraper will be in its third weekend of release with The Equalizer 2 in its second), this series seems to be going strong.
In order to achieve the largest opening of all the M:I features, Fallout would need to top the $57 million achieved 18 years ago by part 2. Rogue Nation came close three summers ago with $55 million. I believe this should have enough juice to do so with a low to mid 60s gross.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout opening weekend prediction: $63.6 million
For 22 years now, the Mission: Impossible franchise has been a sturdy and profitable one for its star Tom Cruise. Two weeks from now, the sixth picture in the series Mission: Impossible – Fallout hits theaters stateside. Early reviews have been quite impressive with some critics hailing it as the best movie of the bunch so far. One prominent critic went as far to say it’s the best action flick since Mad Max: Fury Road. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 96%.
In case you forgot, Fury Road got itself a Best Picture nomination. That seems highly unlikely for Fallout, but it’s fair to speculate whether voters will choose to honor it in any way. If they do, it would probably be in a technical category or two with Sound Editing and Sound Mixing being the most obvious. Fallout is being hailed for its amazing action sequences (if there was an Oscar category for Best Stunts, that race could be a wrap).
Of the five Mission‘s that have preceded this, they have a collective Oscar nod count of zero. Just that fact makes it a long shot that part 6 receives any attention. However, if some of the tech category voters want to throw it a bone, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Bloggers Note (06/08/17) – poor reviews and word of mouth have caused a revision from $38.7M to $34.7M
Universal Pictures is hoping that next weekend’s The Mummy both successfully reboots their Brendan Fraser led franchise that began in 1999 and starts off their “Dark Universe” series to pleasing results. The action/horror flick features Tom Cruise in the lead role with Annabelle Wallis, Sofia Boutella, Courtney B. Vance, and Russell Crowe in the supporting cast. Alex Kurtzman directs the reported $125 million production.
The aforementioned Dark Universe franchise is slated to bring us new additions of the Invisible Man, Frankenstein, Van Helsing, and Wolf Man sagas over the next few years. Our previous Mummy series gave us the original 18 years ago, which opened to $43 million and ended up earning $155M domestically. 2001 sequel The Mummy Returns was the high mark with a $68 million premiere and $202M overall haul. 2008’s The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon was a low mark with a $40 million debut and $102M total.
This brings us to Mr. Cruise. He’s not the box office draw he once was and it’s worth noting that only the Mission: Impossible franchise and 2005’s War of the Worlds have made over $40 million out of the gate. That is probably the number The Mummy is poised to reach and that probably means a second place showing after the sophomore weekend of Wonder Woman. I’ll put it right under that mark.
The Mummy opening weekend prediction: $34.7 million
Well, it’s officially summertime and that means on this blog of mine, I recount the top ten movie hits of the season from 10 years ago and today… 20 years ago. When it comes to the film that ruled summer 1996, there’s a major connection to a sequel coming this very weekend…
As I have in years past, I’ll count down the top ten and then also mention some other notable pics, as well as big old flops. Let’s get to it…
10. The Cable Guy
Domestic Gross: $60 million
It may have managed to place in the top 10, but The Cable Guy (with its darker tones than any of his previous material) was considered to be Jim Carrey’s first flop. This was coming after a quintet of hits that included Ace Ventura and its sequel, The Mask, Dumb and Dumber, and Batman Forever. Critics and audience didn’t know what to make of this Ben Stiller directed effort at first, but it’s since gained a deserved cult following.
9. The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Domestic Gross: $100 million
It couldn’t match the earnings of previous 90s Disney animated fare like Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Lion King, or Pocahontas and it isn’t talked about too much anymore, but the studio did manage to get this to the century club… barely.
8. Eraser
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Arnold Schwarzenegger had his first major flop in summer 1993 with Last Action Hero and rebounded the following season in 1994 with True Lies. Action thriller Eraser falls somewhere in the middle. It did pretty well, but critics and audiences were a bit ambivalent.
7. Phenomenon
Domestic Gross: $104 million
John Travolta was still riding high on the momentum of Pulp Fiction, Get Shorty, and Broken Arrow and that continued with this fantasy drama that also included the Eric Clapton hit “Change the World”.
6. A Time to Kill
Domestic Gross: $108 million
John Grisham was a serious box office commodity when Kill hit, directed by Joel Schumacher (doing his second adaptation after 1994’s The Client). The all-star cast that included Sandra Bullock, Samuel L. Jackson, and Kevin Spacey helped and this gave mainstream audiences their first exposure to Mr. Matthew McConaughey.
5. The Nutty Professor
Domestic Gross: $128 million
After a trio of bombs (The Distinguished Gentleman, Beverly Hills Cop III, Vampire in Brooklyn), Eddie Murphy experienced a huge comeback with this remake of the Jerry Lewis comedy. It also kicked off a series of family friendly titles that gave Eddie a second wind in his filmography.
4. The Rock
Domestic Gross: $134 million
Fresh off his Oscar win for Leaving Las Vegas, Nicolas Cage parlayed that buzz into the action genre in this Michael Bay directed Alcatraz shoot-em-up with Sean Connery and Ed Harris. This one’s pretty good. Much of what would follow from Cage? Not so much.
3. Mission: Impossible
Domestic Gross: $180 million
Tom Cruise got his franchise and it started here with Brian De Palma’s rendering of the 1960s TV series. Ethan Hunt and his cohorts are still rolling today.
2. Twister
Domestic Gross: $241 million
Jan De Bont followed up Speed with this high-priced disaster pic starring Bill Paxton, Helen Hunt, and that infamous flying cow.
Independence Day
Domestic Gross: $306 million
Moviegoers loved their destruction in summer 1996 and they saw the White House and plenty of other landmarks blown to smithereens in this alien invasion extravaganza from Roland Emmerich. This was what really made Will Smith a superstar – so much so that he isn’t bothering with the long gestating sequel, out this Friday.
Something that struck me about those 10 highest grossing pictures? Not one sequel. Try getting away with that these days…
And now for some other notable movies in the hot months of ’96:
Kingpin
Domestic Gross: $25 million
The Farrelly Brothers followed up their smash hit Dumb and Dumber with this bowling comedy starring Woody Harrelson, Randy Quaid, and a glorious Bill Murray. It flopped upon release but has since gained a devoted following.
Trainspotting
Domestic Gross: $16 million
This British import was an indie fave of the season and gave American audiences their first big exposure to both director Danny Boyle and its star Ewan McGregor. A sequel is coming in 2017.
And now – the flops of the summer and there were many:
Dragonheart
Domestic Gross: $51 million
This fantasy adventure starring Dennis Quaid and the voice of Sean Connery couldn’t make its $57 million budget back domestically and critics were lukewarm.
Striptease
Domestic Gross: $33 million
Critics and audiences alike didn’t shell out their dollar bills for this Demi Moore “comedy” set in the world of strip clubs.
The Island of Dr. Moreau
Domestic Gross: $27 million
This massive flop gave us Marlon Brando at his most bizarre in this doomed adaptation of the H.G. Wells novel. Do yourself a favor and read about the making of for this project. It’s considerably more entertaining than the picture itself.
Escape from L.A.
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Sixteen years after the well-received Escape from New York, this sequel reuniting director John Carpenter and star Kurt Russell was mostly ignored.
Chain Reaction
Domestic Gross: $21 million
Keanu Reeves had a smash with Speed two summers before. Director Andrew Davis made the Oscar nominated The Fugitive three summer prior. Putting the two together for this stale action thriller was met with yawns.
Kazaam
Domestic Gross: $18 million
A few months before basketball fans turned out in droves for Michael Jordan and Space Jam, they said no thanks to Shaquille O’Neal’s entry onto the silver screen. Charles Barkley still gives him hell for it on “Inside the NBA”.
The Fan
Domestic Gross: $18 million
Between two major hits with 1995’s Crimson Tide and 1998’s Enemy of the State, Tony Scott had this bomb starring Robert De Niro as a baseball nut stalking favorite player Wesley Snipes.
The Phantom
Domestic Gross: $17 million
Comic books adaptations hadn’t quite hit their stride yet during the mid 1990s, as evidenced here with Billy Zane as the title character that couldn’t even earn half its $45 million budget.
The Frighteners
Domestic Gross: $16 million
This horror action comedy is the last major starring role for Michael J. Fox before he turned his attention back to TV and “Spin City”. This failed with moviegoers, but the director would go on to bigger things. His name? Peter Jackson.
Barb Wire
Domestic Gross: $3 million
Here’s another comic adaptation you don’t think of much – this ill-fated Pamela Anderson vehicle that proved audiences liked her better on the beach… or in other videos you didn’t have to pay for.
And that does it, folks! Your recap of summer 1996. I’ll be back next week talking about 2006…
The Mission: Impossible franchise has followed one common thread throughout its near two decade existence: star Tom Cruise has allowed the directors to put their unique spin on each entry. Brian De Palma with the original. John Woo with the follow-up. JJ Abrams with part three and Brad Bird with the fourth. That approach is somewhat abandoned in #5, Rogue Nation. New director Christopher McQuarrie seems content to borrow here and there from what we’ve seen before and let the formula stand without a more personalized approach to the material. While that may lead to a small degree of disappointment, don’t be too dismayed. The formula is the formula is the formula and Mr. Cruise has got it under control.
Rogue Nation finds the IMF (Impossible Missions Force) in a dire position as the CIA (headed by a welcome Alec Baldwin) has folded it to their oversight. This doesn’t sit well with super agent Ethan Hunt (Cruise) who’s in the midst of a mission to take down the shadowy Syndicate, an international crime ring. He may not have the support he’s used to stateside, but Ethan does have his usual suspects around. That includes techie Simon Pegg (who shines with the most screen time he’s had in the series thus far), Jeremy Renner’s field ops head, and Luther (Ving Rhames), who always turns up to help his old buddy. The new face is Ilsa (Rebecca Ferguson), an MI6 agent whose allegiance is constantly in question. It is unknown if Ilsa ever worked with James Bond, but let’s assume so for the coolness factor.
If you know those pictures, you know plot is secondary and the grandly conceived action sequences are the real focus. Cruise does his own stunts (as he incessantly loves to remind us) and this finds him jumping on departing aircrafts, having to hold his breath underwater for lengthy periods of time, and showing off his motorcycle skills on twisty roads. Per usual, we hopscotch from Paris to Vienna to London to Morocco. We get those nifty masks we first saw in 1996.
The fifth go round feels familiar but Cruise brings enormous energy to the series he keeps returning to. Renner sort of gets the short shrift (especially compared to Pegg) and it’s the second franchise along with Avengers where he’s not particularly given anything of substance to do. At least we don’t get a boring and out of left field family backstory like we did in Avengers: Age of Ultron. Ferguson is a welcome presence as she gives her British spy her all.
Even though McQuarrie doesn’t give a unique spin on Ethan and company like Bird accomplished last time with Ghost Protocol, the series is such a well oiled machine that the results are still a lot of fun. And it still mostly shines.
We continue to day 2 of my personal favorite movie trailers of the last 25 years and this brings us to numbers 20-16.
Let’s go:
20. Mission: Impossible (1996)
For a budding film franchise starring the biggest movie star in the world at the time, the trailer for Mission: Impossible sets expectations very high with this electric spot and it’s delivered in the form of five pictures and counting.
19. Godzilla (1998)
I actually considered the very effective trailer for the superior 2014 version, but this true teaser doesn’t use a minute of footage from the eventual (highly disappointing) 1998 flick and it manages to be an example of expert marketing for getting an audience’s anticipation sky high.
18. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)
Using Trent Reznor’s killer version of Led Zeppelin’s “Immigrant Song”, the teaser for David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo promises the “feel bad” movie of Christmas in a glorious and fast paced ad that serves as one example of many wonderful Fincher trailers.
17. Jurassic Park (1993)
We may forget now after four entries in the franchises, but the trailer here gave us our first glimpse of Spielberg’s dinos in all their glory and that alone merits inclusion.
16. Superman Returns (2006)
I struggled with whether to include the fine trailer for the 2013 Man of Steel reboot instead, but this one hearkens brilliantly back to the 1978 Superman with its Marlon Brando voice-over and rich visuals.
Unlike most holiday weekend frames, Labor Day isn’t exactly known for studios bringing out heavy hitters and that remains unchanged in 2015. There are two new releases finding their way to theaters over the long weekend: franchise reboot The Transporter: Refueled and Robert Redford led A Walk in the Woods (which opens Wednesday).You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect much from either. While Transporter has a reasonable shot at debuting #1, a lot of summer holdovers end up doing more Labor Day weekend than they did the previous weekend. If that holds true for Straight Outta Compton, as I believe it will, that means it will be #1 for the fourth straight weekend. As I see it, Transporter could be second or third depending on how well Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation increases its gross. The Christian themed War Room got off to a much better than anticipated start, but I actually see it losing close to a third of its opening weekend audience while No Escape (which also debuted above expectations) may lose about a fourth. That would leave Mr. Redford and his Woods in sixth place.
And with that, my predictions for the four day Labor Day weekend top six:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing an increase of 9%)
2. The Transporter: Refueled
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 23%)
4. War Room
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. No Escape
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. A Walk in the Woods
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (Friday to Monday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)
Box Office Results (August 28-30)
The NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton made it a three peat this weekend with $13.1 million (just above my $12.5M estimate) to bring its impressive total to $134 million. While I pretty much got that right, I stumbled when it came to predicting the weekend’s newcomers.
The aforementioned War Room easily beat expectations with a terrific $11.3 million for second place (surging above my $5.7M prediction). Considering its reported $3M budget, this is a wonderful beginning for it.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation took third with $8.1 million, just beyond my $7.4M projection for a total of $170M.
Just behind Mission was the Owen Wilson/Pierce Brosnan thriller No Escape which also made $8.1 million over the traditional weekend and $10.1 million since its Wednesday debut. This outshines my respective predictions of $4.7M and $6.3M and is a better start than most anticipated.
Rounding out the top five was Sinister 2 in its sophomore frame with $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and its two week total is an unimpressive $18M.
Where I really went wrong was with the Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends, which had an absolutely putrid $1.7 million start for only 13th place. I had it second with $10.9M… oops! Clearly audiences had zero interest in Friends and it managed only an embarrassing $770 per screen average.
Tom Cruise is back for his fifth go round as IMF agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, opening Friday, July 31st. The now nineteen year old franchise should give the series another solid hit, following the goodwill left over from 2011’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing fourth entry, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
Besides Cruise, Rogue features returnees Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg and Ving Rhames, in addition to new cast members Rebecca Ferguson and Alec Baldwin. Let’s take a trip down memory lane for openings of past flicks:
Mission: Impossible – $45.4 million debut with eventual $180.9M domestic gross in 1996
Mission: Impossible II – $70.8 million debut over four day Memorial Day weekend in 2000 with $91.8 million premiere since it opened on a Wednesday with eventual $215.4M domestic gross
Mission: Impossible III – $47.7 million debut with eventual $134M domestic gross in 2006
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol – $44.1 million debut over four day Christmas weekend in 2011 with eventual $209.3M domestic gross
As you can see, Protocol technically had the lowest opening of the franchise, but held strong in subsequent post holiday weekends to generate the second largest haul of the series. That bodes pretty well for audience anticipation for Rogue, yet it doesn’t have the benefit of a late year release when titles tend to experience smaller drop offs from weekend to weekend.
Rogue Nation stands little chance of reaching the opening heights achieved by part two, but I do believe it will manage the second highest roll out. I will predict a debut in the low to mid 50s range.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation opening weekend prediction: $52.3 million
We’ve arrived at my top five most anticipated 2015 Summer Movies, set to start rolling out in about three weeks through the end of August. If you missed my first two posts covering numbers 15-6, have no fear, just click here:
This brings us to the heavy hitters on my list of must-see flicks for the season.
And away we go:
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
Release Date: May 15
As mentioned in my first post, this July’s Terminator: Genisys didn’t make my top 15 cut because of what I consider its blah trailer. Mad Max: Fury Road represents the opposite. It looks flat out awesome as director George Miller reboots the series some 35 years after the first Mad Max with Mel Gibson. Tom Hardy steps into the title role with Charlize Theron costarring.
4. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Release Date: July 31
Pushed up from its original December release date, Tom Cruise’s fifth Mission pic brings in his Jack Reacher director Christopher McQuarrie. Series regulars Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, and Simon Pegg are back and joined by Alec Baldwin. 2011’s Ghost Protocol was a high point for the franchise and let’s hope this keeps it going.
3. Jurassic World
Release Date: June 12
The famed dino franchise begun by Spielberg gets a reboot with director Colin Trevorrow taking over and Star Lord himself Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard headlining. The trailer has me ready to return to that dastardly park immediately.
2. Tomorrowland
Release Date: May 22
Disney has enlisted their Incredibles director Brad Bird (he also directed the aforementioned Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol) for this live-action tale featuring George Clooney, Britt Robertson, and Hugh Laurie. The plot is being kept under wraps, but the trailer suggests a visual feast. With Bird behind the camera, expect something special.
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1
The first picture of the summer is my most awaited and is certainly poised to be the season’s highest earner. Three years after teaming Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, Black Widow, Hawkeye and more – Joss Whedon is back again directing Marvel’s superhero team in the breathlessly awaited sequel to the second highest grossing domestic earner of all time. James Spader voices the title character villain. Don’t be surprised if this has the largest opening weekend in box office history – beating out, yes, The Avengers.
And that’ll do it, friends! I hope my list assists you with your popcorn viewing pleasure coming very soon…
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