2021 Critics Choice Awards Predictions

As if the Golden Globe nominations coming tomorrow morning weren’t confusing enough to figure out, we also have the nods on the same day for the Critics Choice Awards. They’re frequently a reliable indicator of which way the Academy could go. However, there’s a caveat. While both branches choose ten pictures, the other races can fluctuate between 5-7 nominees. Generally Director and the lead acting races are seven while supporting and the screenplay derbies are six. The rest are a rather (needlessly unpredictable) mix. This show also contains some categories not seen in others like Best Ensemble, action, comedy, and sci-fi/horror pics, and Young Performer.

Here’s my best shot at projecting what the critics will do. The ceremony itself hits January 9th… the same day as the Globes. And as I did with the Globes, I’ll name runners-up and second alternates…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!

Second Alternate: The Last Duel

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Runner-Up: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

Second Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, A Hero

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Runner-Up: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Second Alternate: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Nicolas Cage, Pig

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!

Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Ann Dowd, Mass

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA

Second Alternate: Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Jon Bernthal, King Richard

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Jason Isaacs, Mass

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Best Ensemble

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Runner-Up: King Richard

Second Alternate: Mass

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

C’Mon C’Mon

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Mass

Runner-Up: Being the Ricardos

Second Alternate: The Worst Person in the World

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

CODA

The Last Duel

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Dune

Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

Belle

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon

Second Alternate: The Summit of the Gods

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

A Hero

Titane

The Worst Person in the World

Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers

Second Alternate: I’m Your Man

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Spencer

Second Alternate: The French Dispatch

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Spencer

Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!

Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza

Best Makeup

Predicted Nominees:

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Spencer

Runner-Up: The Last Duel

Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

Cyrano

Dune

The Last Duel

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Runner-Up: The French Dispatch

Second Alternate: Belfast

Best Score

Predicted Nominees:

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runner-Up: Don’t Look Up

Second Alternate: Cyrano

Best Song

Predicted Nominees:

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Beyond the Shore” from CODA

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Runner-Up: “Every Letter” from Cyrano

Second Alternate: “Here I Am” from Respect

Best Visual Effects (note that it is unlikely that The Matrix Resurrections or Spider-Man: No Way Home screened in time for inclusion)

Predicted Nominees:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Eternals

Finch

Free Guy

Godzilla vs. Kong

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Runner-Up: The Green Knight

Second Alternate: The Suicide Squad

Best Action Movie

Predicted Nominees:

Black Widow

Dune

The Harder They Fall

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

The Suicide Squad

Runner-Up: Nobody

Second Alternate: Eternals

Best Comedy

Predicted Nominees:

Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar

Don’t Look Up

Free Guy

The French Dispatch

Licorice Pizza

Red Rocket

Runner-Up: Cruella

Second Alternate: Zola

Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie

Predicted Nominees:

Candyman

Dune

Finch

Free Guy

A Quiet Place Part II

Runner-Up: The Suicide Squad

Second Alternate: Titane

Best Young Performer

Predicted Nominees:

Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Jude Hill, Belfast

Emilia Jones, CODA

Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon

Saniyya Sidney, King Richard

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Runner-Up: Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place Part II 

Second Alternate: Demi Singleton, King Richard

This list means I’m projecting the following number of nominations for these movies:

12 Nominations

Dune

11 Nominations

Belfast, West Side Story

10 Nominations

The Power of the Dog

8 Nominations

King Richard

7 Nominations

Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth

6 Nominations

CODA

5 Nominations

Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley

3 Nominations

C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mass, Spencer

2 Nominations

Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

1 Nomination

Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Being the Ricardos, Belle, Black Widow, Candyman, Drive My Car, Eternals, Finch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, The Harder They Fall, A Hero, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Pig, A Quiet Place Part II, Red Rocket, The Suicide Squad, Tick Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World

Reaction (along with that for the Globes) up tomorrow!

A Quiet Place Part II Review

The Abbott family is back in A Quiet Place Part II as they continue to hope that the sound of silence prevents acts of violence. John Krasinski continues to prove he’s quite adept at this horror/sci-fi genre. When I wrote my review for 2018’s predecessor, I stated that future sequels might be tempted to explore reasons why the creatures came to Earth in the first place. In my view, there’s really no pressing need to do that. Extraterrestrials are here. Keep your mouth shut or you’re getting pulverized. What more do you need?

The sequel doesn’t go down that potentially unnecessary route. Instead Part II expands its cinematic universe beyond the Abbott farmhouse. As you may recall (and spoilers ahead if you haven’t watched part I), we last left Evelyn (Emily Blunt) as a shotgun reloading widow who’d just given birth and was in full Mama Bear mode to her other children. Regan (Millicent Simmonds) is the deaf daughter responsible for cracking a code to kill the monsters.

The other child Marcus (Noah Jupe) is failing at cracking a baseball bat in the film’s prologue showing the last moments of normalcy before the invasion. This allows Krasinski’s patriarch to briefly return as idyllic small town life turns into a hostile takeover.

A year and change later, a radio transmission convinces Regan that hope for survival could exist elsewhere. The rest of the family unit is skeptical, but we’ve already learned in the original that this girl is determined. Another survivor Emmett (Cillian Murphy) finds himself as the partner on her journey. Evelyn, Marcus, and baby are stuck at a hideout in need of medical supplies.

A Quiet Place Part II is not the self contained unit that we witnessed before. The freshness of A Quiet Place‘s concept is gone. Yet this manages to produce some genuinely nifty and tense set pieces. Much of the credit goes to Michael P. Shawver and his tight editing. This includes the first few minutes at the ballpark as well as a train turned mortuary and especially at a marina that contains more threats than audibly superior aliens.

Simply put, this is better than most horror sequels. It broadens the story without bogging itself down in superfluous backstory. Blunt still exudes her fiercely protective demeanor though it’s Simmonds and Jupe who are the true all-stars. I’m not sure how long this franchise can continue to garner the vocal support of audiences and critics, but so far so good.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: A Quiet Place Part II

Fourteen months after its scheduled release, A Quiet Place Part II looks to make noise at the box office when it debuts over Memorial weekend. John Krasinski’s horror sequel starring wife Emily Blunt was days away from release before the COVID-19 pandemic changed the world. The 2018 original was critically hailed and generated some Oscar buzz. However, it managed only a nod in Sound Editing (this was before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into one category). It lost to Bohemian Rhapsody. 

The review embargo lifted today. The general consensus is that AQPII nearly matches the quality of its predecessor, but not quite. This is evident in the Rotten Tomatoes score. Part I reached 96%. Part II sits at 90%. The chances of a Best Picture nomination seemed rather unrealistic anyway. This does not hold true for Best Sound where it could make a play. There is bound to be serious competition in the form of musicals like In the Heights and West Side Story and spectacles such as Dune and Top Gun: Maverick. 

Marco Beltrami’s score is getting some kudos (his work in the original received a Globe nod), but that could be a long shot as well. There is another higher profile race to mention. Millicent Simmonds, reprising her role as Blunt’s daughter, is being singled out. The deaf actress received raves for Part I and critics are saying her work here is a highlight. A Best Supporting Actress is not impossible, but there’s a major caveat.

It seems like an actress in a horror flick has been hyped up every year in recent times. This includes Toni Collette in Hereditary, Lupita Nyong’o for Us, and Elisabeth Moss in The Invisible Man. Yet the Academy seems to never take the bait. It is worth noting that Blunt won Supporting Actress at SAG for the original and then didn’t get in at the Oscars. Simmonds probably won’t make final cut though it’ll be worth monitoring the strength of this category in the months ahead.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

A Quiet Place Part II Box Office Prediction

REVISED PREDICTION (05/18/21):

An entire fourteen months plus after I originally wrote my opening weekend prediction for A Quiet Place Part II, it’s time to take a second crack at it. The horror sequel was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic when it was only days away from release in March 2020. I am preserving my original forecast below as more of a historical artifact than anything else. As you’ll see below, my initial estimate was $42.5 million.

The difference now is that AQPII is being unveiled over the long Memorial Day weekend. Godzilla vs. Kong managed a hearty $48 million over its five-day Easter rollout in March. I expect similar numbers here. The review embargo officially lifted today and the results should certainly excite Paramount. While several early critical reactions say it doesn’t quite match the first film, nearly all write-ups so far recommend it.

I will still predict that this falls short of the $50 million achieved by its predecessor. Yet with an extra day factored in, I will add a bit of cash ($1 million) to my projection made long, long ago.

A Quiet Place Part II opening weekend prediction: $43.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

Blogger’s Note (03/12/20): In what is becoming a new reality due to the COVID-19, the release of this film has been delayed indefinitely from its 03/20 opening. I’ll keep the prediction up, but certainly revisions are likely to be made once a future release date is secured.

ORIGINAL PREDICTION FROM MARCH 2020

Arriving two years after its predecessor made serious noise at the box office, A Quiet Place Part II hits theaters next weekend. The horror sequel to the acclaimed 2018 blockbuster sees John Krasinski returning as writer/director with his spouse Emily Blunt headlining. Millicent Simmonds and Noah Jupe are back as her children. New cast members include Cillian Murphy and Djimon Hounsou.

The original struck a loud chord with audiences and critics with a $50 million opening. Part one legged out impressively for its genre with an eventual $188 million overall domestic haul. It even earned some awards attention with Blunt winning a Supporting Actress SAG trophy.

All horror titles not named The Invisible Man have faced a tough road at multiplexes in 2020. However, with the first feature fresh in their minds, audiences should turn out for this follow-up. The X factor is, of course, worldwide events and this is likely to be a recurring theme in my projections for the foreseeable future. The impact of the Coronavirus on the moviegoing public is playing out in real time. At present, I will say Part II makes a few million under what the first accomplished.

A Quiet Place Part II opening weekend prediction: $42.5 million

For my Cruella prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/05/19/cruella-box-office-prediction/

A Quiet Place Movie Review

Prior to this, John Krasinki’s most notable contribution to the sound of silence was his wordless and humorous deadpan expressions that populated each episode of “The Office”. That all changes with A Quiet Place, his supremely satisfying horror flick that uses the absence of noise in scary ways.

Tense and well-crafted, the pic is set in the near future as alien creatures roam the Earth and destroy anything that makes a sound in its path. The Abbott family exists in a rural town where seemingly all other humans couldn’t keep their mouths shut. Lee (Krasinski) and wife Evelyn (the director’s real-life wife Emily Blunt) are raising three youngsters – their deaf daughter Regan (Millicent Simmonds) and two younger brothers. Their every move and action is designed not to elevate decibel levels to dastardly outcomes. A battery-powered toy causes a family tragedy.

About a year later, the Abbotts are coping with loss while Evelyn is in the final days of a pregnancy. This brings the natural question: how in the world can they survive with a baby on the way? The film takes careful consideration of the details to their staying alive. The characters are in a persistent state of worry. So are we.

A Quiet Place has a simple concept and wisely doesn’t waste time explaining the events that put the Abbotts in their predicament. We know we need to know. Make a sound and you’re a goner. Perhaps sequels or spin-offs will delve into the history. It’s not exactly necessary. Krasinski had previously made two comedic dramas that made little impact with critics or audiences. We did not know he was capable of something like this and it’s an announcement of a filmmaker who’s found a roaring place in this genre. There’s some Spielberg influence, a sprinkle of Shyamalan, some Hitchcockian stuff here and there. Additionally there’s an Alien vibe happening. That classic’s tagline was “In space, no one can you hear you scream.” The rule is Earthbound here. Yet it also feels highly original at times.

Much of the film is silent itself save for the solid musical score. We don’t even get the amount of symphonic jump scares that you might expect. Like many famous horror titles, A Quiet Place has something to say about parenting and you may find yourself reconsidering its themes of that subject once the credits roll. Krasinski and Blunt are convincing as the protectors of their always vulnerable flock. Simmonds (who is deaf herself) is terrific. The picture is pulled off well enough that you may find yourself tempted to tip toe immediately afterwards.

***1/2 (out of four)

A Quiet Place Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, A Quiet Place looks to make a lot of noise at the box office and early indications are that it may well succeed. The horror pic comes from John Krasinski, best known to many as Jim from “The Office”. The director stars alongside his real life spouse Emily Blunt with Millicent Simmonds and Noah Jupe playing their children. The foursome play a family trying desperately to survive in a world terrorized by creatures that attack if you make a sound.

The Paramount release garnered significant buzz when it screened at the South by Southwest Festival earlier this year. Krasinski’s previous directorial outing, comedic drama 2016’s The Hollars, made little impression with moviegoers. Look for his career behind the camera to be on the upswing following this. Critical praise has been vocal and it’s currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The creepy and nearly silent trailers are effective and the marketplace seems primed for a hit in the genre.

Add all that up and I believe the opening for Quiet will be anything but. I could see this debuting between the $26 million achieved by 2016’s Don’t Breathe and the $33 million haul of last year’s Get Out.

A Quiet Place opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million

For my Blockers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/28/blockers-box-office-prediction/

For my The Miracle Season prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/30/the-miracle-season-box-office-prediction/

For my Chappaquiddick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/30/chappaquiddick-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: A Quiet Place

Premiering this weekend at the South by Southwest Film Festival, John Krasinski’s horror pic A Quiet Place is making a considerable amount of noise. Described as a near silent genre exercise in which monsters attack you if you make a sound, Place is impressing fest goers and critics alike. The pic sits at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The director stars alongside his real life wife Emily Blunt and Noah Jupe and Millicent Simmonds playing their children.

Slated to open stateside on April 6, early reviews suggest Place could be a monster hit at the box office. By the way, 2018 is shaping up to be a banner year for Blunt with this and Mary Poppins Returns debuting on Christmas.

Horror movies generally don’t make their way to consideration for Oscar voters, but Get Out proved an exception in 2017. Could A Quiet Place follow suit? Even with the strong critical notices, it’s doubtful. Blunt is getting raves for her work here, but I suspect she may receive even more attention for Poppins. Two races where Quiet could factor in? The Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories. Even though the picture is said to be set at library tone decibels, its intermittent use of sound might impress voters in those technical categories.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 2nd Edition

Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.

There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.

Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.

Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 3)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)

14. Detroit (PR: 12)

15. Get Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Downsizing

The Greatest Showman

The Big Sick

All the Money in the World

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonderstruck

Molly’s Game

Wind River

Coco

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)

9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Hostiles

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Algee Smith, Detroit

Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Diane Kruger, In the Fade

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World

Will Poulter, Detroit

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Patrick Stewart, Logan

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Sarah Paulson, The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

All the Money in the World

Thank You for Your Service

First, They Killed My Father

The Death of Stalin

Wonder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Get Out (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 6)

9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread

Downsizing

Wind River

Battle of the Sexes

Coco

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)

2. In the Fade

3. First, They Killed My Father

4. Happy End

5. Foxtrot

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square

7. A Fantastic Woman

8. Loveless

9. The Divine Order

10. Tom of Finland

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children

5. Ferdinand

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie

7. Cars 3

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

9. Despicable Me 3

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. City of Ghosts

2. Risk

3. Icarus

4. Cries from Syria

5. Jane

Other Possibilities:

6. Step

7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

8. Dina

9. One of Us

10. Kedi

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Darkest Hour

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Post

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Call Me by Your Name

10. Detroit

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Darkest Hour

5. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. Mudbound

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

9. Wonder Wheel

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Darkest Hour

4. Phantom Thread

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. The Greatest Showman

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Wonder Wheel

10. Call My by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread

2. Beauty and the Beast

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Victoria and Abdul

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Beguiled

8. Wonder Wheel

9. The Post

10. Murder on the Orient Express

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. The Shape of Water

3. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman

5. I, Tonya

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. Thor: Ragnarok

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. It

10. Wonderstruck

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. The Shape of Water

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

7. Beauty and the Beast

8. Wonder Woman

9. Thor: Ragnarok

10. Kong: Skull Island

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. Wonder Woman

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water

7. Coco

8. Detroit

9. Baby Driver

10. War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver

7. Detroit

8. Transformers: The Last Knight

9. Darkest Hour

10. Coco

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonderstruck

5. Coco

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

7. The Post

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit

8. “The Promise” from The Promise

9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

11 Nominations

Darkest Hour

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

6 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread

4 Nominations

Mudbound, The Greatest Showman

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast

1 Nomination

Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 26th Edition

My weekly Thursday predictions are in for the eight major categories at the Oscars. As October closes out, we will see some changes beginning next week as November rolls in. This will be the final week of listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the other seven races. Starting next week, the Best Picture possibilities will go down to 15 and 10 in the other categories. Additionally, on November 2, I’ll be bringing in the other categories related to feature films.

Over the past week, we’ve seen first trailers hit for I, Tonya and Phantom Thread, both threats to get multiple nods. The Phantom trailer and subsequent news also introduced us to Vicky Krieps, who apparently will be campaigned for in an already packed lead actress race. I’m still on The Florida Project bandwagon and it moves from 9th to 7th this week in BP possibilities. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird also makes a big jump in the rankings.

The film Chappaquiddick was moved to 2018 and that now removes the (long shot) possibility that Jason Clarke could have received a Best Actor nod portraying Senator Ted Kennedy.

Yet the biggest development of the week is Warner Bros announcement that Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris will be opening in February 2018. There’s still a chance it could receive a limited late year push for Oscar consideration, but for now it’s out of contention.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

8. Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Lady Bird (PR: 18)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 15)

12. Detroit (PR: 10)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Get Out (PR: 20)

15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)

16. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 14)

17. Downsizing (PR: 16)

18. The Greatest Showman (PR: 17)

19. The Big Sick (PR: 22)

20.  All the Money in the World (PR: 19)

21.  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 23)

22.  Wonderstruck (PR: 21)

23. Molly’s Game (PR: 25)

24. Wind River (PR: 24)

25. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The 15:17 to Paris

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

10. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 15)

11. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

12. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 10)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)

15. Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)

10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)

11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)

12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)

13. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 12)

14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 15)

15. Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (moved to 2018)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)

8. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)

12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

13. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 14)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 15)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 10)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)

14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 14)

15. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 12)

14. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)

15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Stronger (PR: 11)

11. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

12. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)

13. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 15)

14. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)

15. Wonder (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The 15:17 to Paris

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: 3)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 8)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)

11. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

12. Downsizing (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: 13)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit 

Wonder Wheel

And there you have it! My final October predictions. I’ll be back next week with all the categories for the first time…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 19th Edition

My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.

It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.

And with that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Detroit (PR: 12)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 15)

13. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

16. Downsizing (PR: 18)

17. The Greatest Showman (PR: 16)

18. Lady Bird (PR: 22)

19. All the Money in the World (PR: 20)

20. Get Out (PR: 19)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 21)

22. The Big Sick (PR: 23)

23. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 25)

24. Wind River (PR: 24)

25. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

5. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

7. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

10. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

11. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 9)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)

12. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)

14. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

15. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 11)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 15)

14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 13)

15. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colin Farrell, The Beguiled

Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 13)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

14. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 15)

15. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

8. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 9)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 6)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Stronger (PR: 12)

12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)

14. Wonder (PR: 15)

15. First, They Killed My Father (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thank You for Your Service

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

8. Get Out (PR: 8)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Downsizing (PR: 12)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Wind River (PR: 14)

14. Detroit (PR: 15)

15. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

I’ll be back next Thursday with a fresh round of predictions!