Oscar Predictions – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.

2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.

The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Goodrich

Michael Keaton has trouble playing Mr. Mom forty plus years after Mr. Mom in Goodrich, out in limited fashion this weekend. From Hallie Meyers-Shyer, director of the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again, Keaton headlines the dramedy dealing with child rearing alongside Mila Kunis, Carmen Ejojo, Michael Urie, Kevin Pollak, and his Multiplicity costar Andie MacDowell.

Reviews are fairly decent with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes with some calling it crowd pleasing enough. Still drawing multiplex crowds, Keaton’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could be an awards player in tech races like Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Goodrich will not be vying for any prizes during the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Luckiest Girl Alive Review

Luckiest Girl Alive tackles weighty subjects and reinforces its messages by eventually having Mila Kunis’s Ani look directly to camera to state them in case you weren’t listening. Based on a 2015 bestseller by Jessica Knoll, Mike Barker’s adaptation juggles two 1999 tragedies – the first is kept under wraps for some time. It leads to a school shooting in which Kunis’s younger self is suspected of participating. In the present day, one of the wounded parties confined to a wheelchair (Alex Barone) is monetizing such a narrative.

Ani is a talented writer penning witty relationship columns for a slightly trashy magazine. The work is noticed enough that she’s up for a gig at The New York Times. She’s engaged to Luke (Finn Wittrock), sweet and supportive and coming from money. We learn that status is important to Ani. Flashbacks (where Ani is played by Chiara Aurelia) show us a teenager attending a fancy private school. Unlike her peers, she’s not rich and her mom (Connie Britton) is constantly offering flawed advice on how to climb the societal ladder.

In addition to the story often shifting between the turn of the century and 2015, Kunis provides frequent voiceovers. Her biting inner monologue usually doesn’t match what she says out loud (expect in one humorous instance). Ani has learned to keep prior tragedies buried away. All of that is risked when a documentary filmmaker (Dalmar Abuzeid) finally convinces her to take part in his project. Its focus is to get to the bottom of everything that occurred when violence erupted in the halls. The acts of violation aren’t just unique to the shooters.

As mentioned, the screenplay (and book I assume) are told so that some crimes are slow rolled into big reveals. Perhaps it worked in novelistic form. It comes across as clunky in the adaptation and even a little cheap considering the seriousness of its themes. Characters are arbitrarily introduced like Ani’s kindly teacher (Scoot McNairy). He tends to pop up as the plot necessitates it.

Our lead strays far away from recent comedic roles and does a commendable job. Other players – like Britton as the boozy and conflicted mom – are saddled with one-note roles (that applies to Wittrock too). I wish the structure served its top actress and the others more smoothly. This meditation on trauma can feel too often like a rough draft.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Raymond & Ray

Ewan McGregor and Ethan Hawke are half brothers who reunite at the funeral of their bad father in Raymond & Ray. The dramedy comes from Rodrigo Garcia, who directed Glenn Close to a Best Actress nod in 2011’s Albert Nobbs. Most recently, he helmed Close and Mila Kunis in the drug abuse drama Four Good Days. His latest premiered at the Toronto Film Festival ahead of its October 21st Apple TV streaming debut. Costars include Maribel Verdu and Sophie Okonedo.

Reviews here are perfectly split down the middle at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. It came and went at the Canadian fest with little fanfare and scant awards buzz. Expect that to be the case moving forward. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Four Good Days

**Blogger’s Note (03/18/21): Please note that the post below was written in January 2020. Four Good Days, following its Sundance premiere over one year ago, is finally making its way to the screen in April of 2021. The dynamic regarding its awards prospects remains the same.

The substance abuse drama Four Good Days has debuted at Sundance and the subject matter sure seems potentially Oscar friendly. Glenn Close plays the mother to Mila Kunis’s addicted daughter. Rodrigo Garcia is behind the camera and he’s already directed Close to one Academy nomination in 2011 for Albert Nobbs.

Yet the buzz emanating from Utah suggests Days could fall short with awards voters. Reviews are decent, but nowhere near the level they need to be for Picture consideration. So let’s discuss the two leads. In 2018, Close was the front runner for Actress with The Wife until Olivia Colman (The Favourite) scored an upset victory. Having never won, there’s probably a feeling more than ever that Close is overdue. Kunis likely just missed a Supporting Actress nod for 2010’s Black Swan and any hailed performance could vault her to the top of voters minds.

However, this simply might not be the movie to make it happen for either. In that sense, Days reminds me of two 2018 titles with similar themes that also failed to garner Academy attention: Beautiful Boy and Ben is Back. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Wonder Park Box Office Prediction

It’s been a bumpy ride for Nickelodeon’s animated feature Wonder Park, but it finally hits screens this Friday. Originally titled Amusement Park and scheduled for release last summer, the pic comes with a reported $100 million price tag. The film’s director Dylan Brown was fired by the studio in early 2018 due to various sexual harassment claims. Newcomer Brianna Denski provides the lead voiceover role along with familiar faces such as Jennifer Garner, Matthew Broderick, Kenan Thompson, Ken Jeong, Mila Kunis, and John Oliver.

The box office grosses for Park, considering its hefty price tag, might not be amusing at all. It doesn’t help that Captain Marvel will be in its sophomore frame as it also appeals to family crowds. I believe this will make low double digits for its start and that would amount to a costly flop for Paramount.

Wonder Park opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Five Feet Apart prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/five-feet-apart-box-office-prediction/

For my Captive State prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/10/captive-state-box-office-prediction/

The Spy Who Dumped Me Box Office Prediction

Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon team up for the action comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, out next weekend. As the title suggests, Kunis finds out her ex is a CIA agent and she (along with bff McKinnon) become embroiled in international intrigue. Susanna Fogel directs with a supporting cast including Justin Theroux and Sam Heughan.

Kunis has had plenty of successes at the box office over her career in both leading and supporting parts. Most recently, 2016’s Bad Moms was a sleeper hit ($113 million). However, sequel A Bad Moms Christmas couldn’t match it with a $16.7 million debut and $72 million overall tally.

The trailers for Spy struggle to make it look like anything special. Its best hope is for a sizable female audience (the kind that made Ocean’s 8 a big success last month). I’ll project a low to mid teens is the likely scenario here.

The Spy Who Dumped Me opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million

For my Christopher Robin prediction, click here:

Christopher Robin Box Office Prediction

For my The Darkest Minds prediction, click here:

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction

A Bad Moms Christmas Movie Review

2016’s Bad Moms took its concept of three frazzled matriarchs letting loose and rode that wave to high box office bucks. As far as its quality, I felt it was a rather mediocre exercise that often unsuccessfully blended raunchy with pathos. Yet moviegoers turned out so now we have A Bad Moms Christmas, in which it turns out the bad moms from part 1 all have questionable ones themselves.

Our original trio is feeling the natural stress that comes from holiday planning. Amy (Mila Kunis), Kiki (Kristen Bell), and Carla (Kathryn Hahn) decide to throw caution to the wind and not go crazy with the season’s headaches… other than the ones that their drunken mall trip hangovers might induce. Circumstances are altered when their mamas turn up. Christine Baranski is Amy’s control freak mom, Cheryl Hines is Kiki’s super clingy mom, and Susan Sarandon is Carla’s wild and distant mom.

The week leading to Christmas gives all three subplots time for arguments and making up, as well as Santa stripping shows and bonding over butthole waxing. That’s about as deep as we get from writer/directors Scott Moore and Jon Lucas, who are once again tasked with creating a shallow and surface level comedic dive into the female psyche.

A Bad Moms Christmas doesn’t go full throttle with its cartoonish aspects and doesn’t earn the attempted sentimentality it tries toward the end. What’s left is a sequel with less laughs than the first and the bar wasn’t exactly high. Among the cast, Hines comes off the best because she’s at least convincing as she apes daughter Bell’s look and mannerisms.

It’s tough for comedy sequels to succeed because most of them aren’t planned and feel rushed to capitalize on the success of what came before. This is yet another example.

*1/2 (out of four)

A Bad Moms Christmas Box Office Prediction

Last summer, Bad Moms was a breakout comedy that earned $23 million in its first weekend and went on to gross $113 million domestically. STXfilms has wasted no time in capitalizing with holiday themed sequel A Bad Moms Christmas, which opens next Wednesday. Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, and Kathryn Hahn are back and this time around it’s their moms joining the mix in the form of Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines, and Susan Sarandon. Jon Lucas and Scott Moore are back handling directorial duties.

The quick turn-around on this follow-up likely means sequelitis will not creep in. Christmas could well serve as smart counter programming for females to the weekend’s giant release that is Thor: Ragnarok. The Wednesday debut will also give it a bit of a head start.

Due to the five-day roll out, the sequel may not quite match the $23 million achieved in its predecessor’s opening weekend. Yet it may get over that number in the Wednesday to Sunday earnings. I’ll estimate a high teens to low 20s premiere for the traditional weekend with mid to high 20s for the entire frame.

A Bad Moms Christmas opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million (Friday to Monday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Thor: Ragnarok prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/24/thor-ragnarok-box-office-prediction/

 

 

Bad Moms Movie Review

The Wolf Pack of The Hangover came from the minds of writers Jon Lucas and Scott Moore and it kicked off a male-centric trilogy of frequent hilarity (at least the first one) where bros could be wild bros. This same duo now tries to do the same with frazzled and overworked matriarchs in Bad Moms and the result is considerably more hit and miss. We don’t know the answer to this question, but perhaps if this pic had been penned by an actual mom, this may have been more insightful. As it stands, this is an often generic and frequently blander than it should be experience punctuated by occasional real laughs.

Amy (Mila Kunis) is a do everything and overworked mother of two with a husband not pulling his weight. When she catches him internet cheating and sends him packing, her already jam-packed agenda just expands. She finds a kindred spirit in Kiki (Kristen Bell) whose own hubby is lackadaisical in his duties and a free spirit in single mom Carla (Kathryn Hahn), who has a hands off approach with her teenager. Together, they form their own pack, rebelling against their kids school’s militant PTA leader Gwendolyn (Christina Applegate). It culminates with Amy challenging her for the next PTA election.

Bad Moms makes it point early – that youngsters today are too micro managed and coddled and that too much is often expected of them in class. The items of prohibited ingredients for the bake sale reads like a list of pretty much every one there is. The central trio here stick it to the (wo)man with their changed parenting style and learn that sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Kind of like this movie.

Since this is from the dudes responsible for The Hangover, there is a bit of raunch to go with a surprising amount of blandness. The cast is all just peachy, but no one particularly stands out (Bell’s character is pretty under written, truth be told). Hahn is a talent and she’s essentially given the Melissa McCarthy Bridesmaids part, even getting to give a big ole pep talk at one point. There is a romantic subplot between Amy and a single dad (Jay Hernandez) that doesn’t really warrant much attention.

Will Moms look at Bad Moms as a satisfactory excursion away from their crazy lives? I’m sure some will, but this never rose above a level of mediocrity for this non-parent. And if you say maybe you have to be a Mom to get it, remind yourself that it wasn’t written by one.

** (out of four)