Tag: Mikey Madison

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

    My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!

    We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    Sandra Hüller, Rose

    Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    Amy Adams, At the Sea

    Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    Penélope Cruz, Bunker

    Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

    Mason Reeves, Josephine

    Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Best Picture 2024: The Final Five

    As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    On the eve of the 98th Academy Awards, let’s ponder what five would have done so at the 97th. One is for certain. We know that Sean Baker’s Anora has a reserved slot. It won five out of six awards it was up for – Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

    Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less clear. Here’s my best speculation.

    The Brutalist

    Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama scored ten nods and won three for Adrien Brody’s lead performance, Original Score, and Cinematography. Other nods went to the director, Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Production Design.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes and it can certainly be argued that it was second in the BP voting.

    A Complete Unknown

    James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet landed a laudable eight nominations – BP, Director, Actor, Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. It was one of two BP nominees that went home empty-handed.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I don’t think it’s automatic but yes. Despite the 0 for 8 tally, the fact that it made the directing five puts it over the edge.

    Conclave

    Edward Berger’s drama about the search a new Pope also landed eight mentions with the others coming in Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. It won for the script.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Like Unknown, not automatic but I’m going with yes because of the screenplay victory.

    Dune: Part Two

    The Denis Villeneuve sequel managed five nominations with two victories in Sound and Visual Effects and at bats for Cinematography and Production Design.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. That handful is nods is only half of what the 2021 predecessor achieved and Villeneuve’s omission is telling.

    Emilia Pérez

    Jacques Audiard’s crime musical easily led the ceremony with 13 nominations. There were victories in Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Original Song. Other noms were for directing, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, another Original Song, and Sound.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes. As you may recall, Gascón’s controversial comments likely sunk the pic’s chances at International Feature Film where I’m Still Here would emerge. However, at the time of the nominations, I feel Pérez still would’ve made it in the top half of contention.

    I’m Still Here

    The Brazilian political drama from Walter Salles was the beneficiary of Emilia backlash when it took the IFF prize. It was also up for Actress (Fernanda Torres).

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. Even with the late breaking international prize, the three noms are second lowest of the lot.

    Nickel Boys

    RaMell Ross’s drama is the only pic with two nominations with the other coming in Adapted Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No and the question was pretty much answered above.

    The Substance

    Coralie Fargeat was nominated for director in her wild anti-aging body horror saga that won Makeup and Hairstyling and was up for Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    This was the toughest one to leave off, but no. I’d have it sixth. Had Moore received Best Actress, it might be a different story.

    Wicked

    With 10 noms, the adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical won Costume Design and Production Design. It additionally made the ballot for Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Sound, and Visual Effects.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    The case could certainly be made, but I’m going no. No direction or screenplay inclusions make the call a bit easier.

    That means my 2024 final five consists of the alphabetically top heavy:

    Anora

    The Brutalist

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow and down the line, I’ll give you my top 5 for that show!

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

    The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

    That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

    Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

    I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

    In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

    Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

    6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

    5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked: For Good

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

    4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

    7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Ne Zha 2

    Animal Farm

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Tale of Silyan

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    F1

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

    5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Phoenician Scheme

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

    4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    One Battle After Another, Sinners

    11 Nominations

    Hamnet

    8 Nominations

    Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

    7 Nominations

    Frankenstein

    6 Nominations

    Jay Kelly

    4 Nominations

    It Was Just an Accident

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    2 Nominations

    F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

    1 Nomination

    28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

    Oscar Predictions: The Life of Chuck (Take 2)

    In September of last year, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Yet it’s the Cannes Film Festival that may dash Chuck‘s hopes for awards love at the 98th Academy Awards.

    Allow me to explain. The People’s Choice Award at TIFF has, for nearly two decades, been one of the more reliable indicators of an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 15 of the last 16 Choice recipients achieved a BP mention including winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The current streak of PCA’s to BP nominees stands at 12 in a row. In 2023, American Fiction instantly became an Academy player after the People’s prize and it resulted in five nominations.

    However, distributor Neon did an unexpected thing after Chuck took the Toronto prize. They chose not to release the picture in calendar year 2024 and dated it for 2025. The sci-fi drama based on a 2020 Stephen King novella arrives in limited release on June 6th with a nationwide expansion the following week. Tom Hiddleston leads a cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Jacob Tremblay, and Mark Hamill.

    Leaving a nine month gap between the TIFF publicity and its release date was a gamble. At Cannes, which concluded just days ago, Neon went on a spending spree. The distributor bought up the rights to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi as well as Grand Prix taker Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier and acclaimed Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Conventional wisdom is that Value has already reserved a slot among the ten Oscar BP contenders. Accident and Agent could also factor into the competition.

    Needless to say, that leaves Neon in the mode of picking and choosing their favorites. Unless Chuck becomes a sizable sleeper hit at the box office (which seems questionable), Neon may opt to put their full weight behind their international films. Last year when they delayed Chuck, they went all in on Sean Baker’s Anora and that obviously paid off with victories in Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), and Original Screenplay.

    I’ve had Chuck in my 10 predicted BP nominees for the last several weeks, including my latest update from seven days ago. When I publish my updated predictions next weekend, I suspect it will drop out. I do think it stands a solid shot at Adapted Screenplay and maybe Mark Hamill in Supporting Actor. However, Neon’s fortunes at Cannes seem to have diminished Chuck‘s exposure a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

    A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

    Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

    Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

    You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

    This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

    With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. After the Hunt

    2. Marty Supreme

    3. Sentimental Value

    4. Wicked: For Good

    5. Sinners

    6. The Rivals of Amziah King

    7. Hamnet

    8. Jay Kelly

    9. The Life of Chuck

    10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another

    12. Frankenstein

    13. Bugonia

    14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

    15. The Smashing Machine

    16. No Other Choice

    17. The Ballad of a Small Player

    18. Michael

    19. Die, My Love

    20. Highest 2 Lowest

    21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    22. F1

    23. Is This Thing On?

    24. Ann Lee

    25. Alpha

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

    2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

    3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

    4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

    5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

    7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

    8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

    9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

    10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

    11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

    12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

    13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

    14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

    15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

    2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

    3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

    7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

    8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

    9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

    10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

    11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

    12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

    13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

    14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

    15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

    4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

    5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

    7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

    8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

    9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

    10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

    11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

    12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

    13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

    15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

    2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

    3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

    4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

    5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

    7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

    8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

    9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

    10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

    11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

    12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

    13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    14. Nia Long, Michael

    15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

    3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

    7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

    8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

    9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

    10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

    11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

    12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

    13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

    14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

    15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

    You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

    We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.

    This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

    Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

    Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

    Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

    Other Possibilities:

    Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

    Olivia Colman, The Roses

    Jodie Foster, Vie privée

    Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

    Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

    Lucy Liu, Rosemead

    Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

    June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

    Emma Stone, Bugonia

    Tessa Thompson, Hedda

    97th Academy Awards Reaction

    After months of speculation and a whole lotta blog posts covering the various competitions, the 97th Academy Awards is now in the history books. It was a history making night for Anora maker Sean Baker. His four statues tie for the most Oscars received in a single evening. He’s in iconic company. The other individual to achieve it is Walt Disney.

    Anora was the story of the night with five victories. I went 17 for 20 in my predictions and the three I missed is where I didn’t pick Anora. I correctly called it in Best Picture and Original Screenplay (wins 1 and 2 for Baker). I incorrectly selected Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) over Baker in director (win 3). Conclave was my wrong pick for Film Editing when went to Baker (win 4). Mikey Madison’s work in the title role was my third misstep as she took gold over Demi Moore (The Substance). Just as Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated the show two years back and Oppenheimer did so a year ago, it was Anora‘s night to shine.

    The ceremony itself only ran about 15 minutes over with first-time host Conan O’Brien doing a solid if unspectacular job at the helm. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande kicked things off in soaring fashion with their performance of “Defying Gravity” from Wicked. That was a high point. A rather pointless 007 tribute was a bit of a head scratcher. Overall the show was fine with a heartfelt Gene Hackman tribute from Morgan Freeman being another memorable moment.

    Let’s run down what I got right quickly. That includes the other three acting derbies as Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is now a two-time Best Actor with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) completing their supporting sweeps.

    Frankly, I didn’t think I’d pull off the hat trick of International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. I managed it with the respective winners I’m Still Here, Flow, and No Other Land.

    Other than the aforementioned Film Editing, all other down the line contests were correct calls: Cinematography and Original Score to The Brutalist; Costume Design and Production Design for Wicked; The Substance in Makeup and Hairstyling; “El Mal” as Original Song for Emilia Pérez; Sound and Visual Effects to Dune: Part Two.

    The win counts were as follows for the following pictures:

    5 Wins

    Anora

    3 Wins

    The Brutalist

    2 Wins

    Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    1 Win

    Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain, The Substance

    Now it’s time to shift focus to the 98th. So keep an eye on this blog for all the speculation that fits…

    97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

    This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

    After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

    After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

    After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

    These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

    We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

    BEST PICTURE

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

    Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

    Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

    It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

    PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

    Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

    PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

    Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

    This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

    Runner-Up: A Real Pain

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

    Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

    PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

    Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

    PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

    Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

    PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

    Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

    The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

    PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

    Runner-Up: Porcelain War

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

    Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Nosferatu

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

    PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

    Runner-Up: Anora

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    All signs point to The Substance.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Wicked

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

    Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

    PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

    If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST SOUND

    A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

    This should be Dune‘s other victory.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

    Runner-Up: Better Man

    And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

    4 Wins

    The Brutalist

    2 Wins

    Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

    1 Win

    Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain