Last week, Goodbye Christopher Robin debuted in the United Kingdom ahead of its limited stateside roll out on October 13th. The pic tells the true-life tale of author A.A. Milne (Domhnall Gleeson) and his inspiration to create the Winnie the Pooh character. Margot Robbie portrays his wife.
Director Simon Curtis made My Week with Marilyn in 2011 and it landed acting nods for both Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh. He also made 2015’s well-regarded Woman in Gold. The film has been looked at a potential Oscar contender and there’s certainly similarities story wise with 2003’s Finding Neverland, which scored seven nominations.
However, critical reaction has been mixed with few reviews being overwhelmingly positive. Robin is perched at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. A Best Picture nomination seems highly unlikely at this juncture and I would say the same for both Gleeson and Robbie’s chances. The good news for Robbie? It’s very feasible she’ll receive lead Actress recognition this year as notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in I, Tonya.
Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).
As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Get Out (PR: 24)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
18. Detroit (PR: 16)
19. Downsizing (PR: 13)
20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)
22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)
23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
Coco
mother!
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)
15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)
Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)
11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)
13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)
14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)
15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)
15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Stronger (PR: 9)
14. Wonder (PR: 13)
15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. Downsizing (PR: 9)
12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Coco
And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…
We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.
As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. Mudbound (PR: 4)
6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Downsizing (PR: 8)
12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)
13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. mother! (PR: 13)
16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)
18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)
19. Coco (PR: 19)
20. Get Out (PR: 20)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)
22. Wind River (PR: 21)
23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Molly’s Game
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)
13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)
10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)
15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)
15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)
9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)
11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
7. Stronger (PR: 12)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)
15. Logan (PR: 15)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)
13. mother! (PR: 13)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)
And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…
As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.
Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).
Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.
So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. Darkest Hour
4. Mudbound
5. Call Me by Your Name
6. Battle of the Sexes
7. The Shape of Water
8. Downsizing
9. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
10. Last Flag Flying
11. Phantom Thread
12. Wonder Wheel
13. mother!
14. Detroit
15. Blade Runner 2049
16. Goodbye Christopher Robin
17. Wonderstruck
18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
19. Coco
20. Get Out
21. Wind River
22. Lady Bird
23. Wonder Woman
24. Molly’s Game
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post
3. Dee Rees, Mudbound
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
4. Tom Hanks, The Post
5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
10. Matt Damon, Downsizing
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker
13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River
15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
2. Meryl Streep, The Post
3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade
13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan
13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
14. Will Poulter, Detroit
15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post
2. Mudbound
3. Call Me by Your Name
4. Last Flag Flying
5. Molly’s Game
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. You Were Never Really Here
8. Victoria and Abdul
9. The Beguiled
10. The Disaster Artist
11. Blade Runner 2049
12. Stronger
13. Wonder
14. My Cousin Rachel
15. Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Battle of the Sexes
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonder Wheel
5. Downsizing
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Get Out
8. Phantom Thread
9. Dunkirk
10. The Big Sick
11. Lady Bird
12. The Florida Project
13. mother!
14. The Greatest Showman
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin
And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…
Fall season is upon us and that means my Oscar prediction posts will be ramping up on this here blog. I will be following the same formula as I did last year. Six “early” prediction posts on Picture, Director, and the four acting races. It’s my goal to have all of these posted by Monday, if not earlier.
From there, every Thursday I’ll bring you my weekly prediction posts all the way to the nominations next year. In both these initial posts covering the six categories and for the weekly posts starting next week, I’ll list my predicted nominees for Best Picture as well as 25 pictures total as possibilities. For the other races (the two Screenplay categories will be included with the weekly posts), I’ll list my five predicted nominees along with ten other ranked possibilities. From week to week, you’ll be able to track the up and down movement of my predictions, who and what have dropped out, and who and what have joined the mix.
We begin today with Best Supporting Actress and just like any category at this juncture (just as festival season is beginning), everything is up in the air. I would say Hong Chau’s work in Downsizing is pretty darn close to a sure thing with Melissa Leo’s role in Novitiate close as well (as long as her campaign doesn’t switch to Lead Actress).
As far as history with my previous year’s earliest predictions in Supporting Actress, 2014 and 2016 yielded two of the eventual five nominees while 2015 gave us three.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Samantha Isler, Molly’s Game
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up shortly…
The Cannes Film Festival started this week across the pond in France and that means some likely Oscar hopefuls are receiving their first screenings. One such picture is Wonderstruck, the latest from director Todd Haynes. It’s based on a 2011 novel by Brian Selznick, the same author who wrote the Hugo series in which Martin Scorsese’s 2011 Best Picture nominee is based upon.
Wonderstruck features Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams in supporting roles and child actors Oakes Fegley and Millicent Simmonds in lead parts. Reaction from the Cannes screening has been mostly positive and it currently stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. Haynes’ three previous efforts have all garnered Oscar nods – 2002’s FarfromHeaven, 2007’s I’mNotThere, and 2015’s Carol. However, none of them got Best Picture nominations. Instead, the focus was on acting. That will likely apply here with some potential for attention on down ballot categories.
Based on early buzz, I’d keep an eye out for Simmonds, the teenage deaf actress said to be a standout. Wonderstruck could also make a play for Adapted Screenplay as well as Costume Design and Original Score. The film hits theaters stateside in October.
Good Sunday all! 15 days from today, the Oscars will air and for the next three Sundays, I’ll be giving you my take on where I see each category standing. This means my winner prediction and each nominee listed in order of likelihood to take their prize.
My final predictions will post on Sunday, February 26 prior to the broadcast the next day. Let’s get to it, shall we?
Blogger’s Note: It is difficult to properly review ManchesterbytheSea without some spoilers. If you wish to go into the movie completely fresh, I would suggest waiting until post viewing to read.
Writer/director Kenneth Lonergan knows that sometimes the most effective and emotional moments in film come from hearing what is not said. Sometimes the interactions between characters aren’t most dramatic when everything is laid on the table, but when they can’t find the words to express their feelings. We witness that in his latest picture ManchesterbytheSea. This is a subtle tale of grief with some truly fine acting. Most pleasingly, Lonergan doesn’t over do it with subject matter and that would’ve been the easy route to go. The New England residents he writes of are experiencing unimaginable sadness, yet they grieve in their own way that rings authentic.
Lee Chandler (Casey Affleck) is a Massachusetts janitor who seems to keep to himself. Even the everyday banter of his clients is a chore for him to listen and respond to. His dull existence is interrupted by news that his brother (Kyle Chandler) has died of a heart attack. He returns home to the title town with the task of informing his nephew Patrick (Lucas Hedges) of his father’s death. The mom (Gretchen Mol) is out of the picture – miles away and apparently an unreliable alcoholic. To Lee’s rather unpleasant surprise, he is named guardian to Patrick.
The pic alternates between flashbacks and present day as we see that Lee once had a fun loving relationship with his nephew. We also see his own family existence with wife Randi (Michelle Williams) and three young children. It’s far from perfect but it seems relatively happy. Lee does drink too much and it’s an error on his part that causes their home to burn down. Randi survives. The children do not. With their world turned upside down, the marriage dissolves and Lee relocates.
His return years later finds him alternating between semi-parenting Patrick through his own tragedy and being ambivalent. This is not with long and drawn out passages of dialogue about feelings and death, but through observing both of their journeys as they process their losses. Some of it is done through humor, as Lee navigates how to respond to Patrick’s two girlfriends.
As mentioned, the Big Scene moments that other more heart string tugging screenplays might dwell on are absent here. The camera hangs back when Patrick is delivered the news of his dad’s passing. His mother’s substance abuse problems are handled in a single shot. We don’t see the chaos that ensued with Lee and Randi’s divorce. Most powerfully, the eventual confrontation between them isn’t lengthy, but it packs a gut punch by what isn’t said.
Lonergan makes us care about these people, flaws and all. The actors playing them accentuate it tremendously. This is probably the best performance of Affleck’s career. Hedges is completely believable as the teen dealing with all the drama in his own way. Williams has limited screen time but makes the most of it, especially in the aforementioned scene with Lee.
ManchesterbytheSea holds us in its grip as we take in its lovely East Coast scenery. They say New Englanders aren’t the type to be overtly expressive in their emotions and that’s the case here. We may not always hear what they’re thinking, but this script and these performers convey it. And that’s says a lot.
The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: LaLaLand, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.
We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if LaLa doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
Nominees: Casey Affleck (ManchesterbytheSea), Andrew Garfield (HacksawRidge), Ryan Gosling (LaLaLand), Viggo Mortensen (CaptainFantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.
Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (TheGirlontheTrain), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (LaLaLand), Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins)
Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman
Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (HellorHighWater), Hugh Grant (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Lucas Hedges (ManchesterbytheSea), Dev Patel (Lion)
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for NocturnalAnimals, isn’t present here.
Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.
And… they’re out! After months of predictions and Oscar Watch posts, the 2016 Oscar nominations were announced this morning. Save for a couple of the technical categories, I must say I’m pretty pleased with my results! Per usual, there were a couple of surprising inclusions and omissions.
Let’s go race by race and see how I did, shall we? I am also including my commentary with each category and, for the first time (!) giving my first predictions on who and what will win…
Best Picture
Todd’s Performance: 9/9 (!)
Analysis: Since the Oscars went to the format where 5-10 Pictures can be nominated, 9 has mostly been the magic number and that held true this time around. There were no surprises here, as evidenced by my perfect score with the biggest race of all. The nominees are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
There are 3 films that stand a chance – La La, Manchester, and Moonlight. Yet there’s no denying that Damien Chazelle’s musical is the front runner, as it tied the record of 14 nominations today along with All About Eve and Titanic.
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: There were four easy picks to make and they were all honored: Chazelle (La La), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester), and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival). The fifth slot has consistently been the tricky one in recent weeks and I went with DGA nominee Garth Davis (Lion). The Academy instead brought previous winner Mel Gibson back into their good graces once again for Hacksaw Ridge.
Winner Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
This one is tougher than Picture. Barry Jenkins has emerged victorious in a number of precursors. Ultimately I’m forecasting that Picture and Director will match in honoring Chazelle’s return to the Hollywood musical.
Best Actor
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: The five performers recognized today have been the most likely to get in for about a month, at least. They are: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw), Ryan Gosling (La La), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington (Fences). It played out as such.
Winner Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actor is essentially a two man race between Affleck and Denzel, but the Manchester lead has racked up the lions share of other awards show and I feel Oscar will follow.
Best Actress
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Let’s get the four women I got right out of the way: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). No surprises there, but what was a bit startling was the omission of Amy Adams in Arrival. I had her ranked third out of five possibilities. Then – my sixth (Annette Bening, 20th Century Women) and seventh (Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train) place alternate picks didn’t make it in. That slot was filled with #8 – Ruth Negga in Loving. Not a huge shock as Actress has been packed for some time, but I thought Negga getting it would replace either Huppert or Streep. Not so.
Winner Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land
I could see Stone, Portman, and maybe even Huppert taking the statue, but I’ll give Stone the gold.
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’ll give myself a hearty pat on the back for this as Supporting Actor was a tough race to wrap your head around this year. The nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals).
Winner Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Ali has won the bulk of precursors and this is the safe pick. That said, this is often a race where upsets happen and I could see Bridges, Patel, and possibly Shannon standing a chance.
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’ll give myself a softer pat on the back with this one as the five expected nominees held court. They are: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester).
Winner Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences
Of all the acting races, this is the easiest to project as Davis has been the front runner for months and remains so.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: As expected – Arrival, Fences (which some had on the fence), Lion, and Moonlight are in. I had Nocturnal Animals getting a nod, but the writers chose Hidden Figures instead.
Winner Prediction: Moonlight
The Barry Jenkins picture is a heavy, heavy favorite here.
Best Original Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Analysis: I correctly predicted Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Manchester by the Sea. I was a bit surprised to see Captain Fantastic left off, not as much so for dark horse pick I, Daniel Blake. In their place: The Lobster and 20th Century Women.
Winner Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Kenneth Lonergan’s script is the favorite, but don’t discount a La La sweep factoring in here. Hell or High Water is a potential upset pick.
Best Animated Feature
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: I went with a bit of an upset pick with Pixar’s Finding Dory… and you usually don’t associate this category not including that studio’s work. Instead, The Red Turtle got in along with predicted nominees Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, and Zootopia.
Winner Prediction: Zootopia
Disney is likely to see their blockbuster take the prize, though Kubo could be lurking.
Best Documentary Feature
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, and 13th were correct estimates while Fire at Sea nabbed a nod instead of Cameraperson.
Winner Prediction: I Am Not Your Negro
This is a tough one as O.J. and 13th also stand decent chances.
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Tanna got in instead of predicted The King’s Choice. Other nominees: Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, and Toni Erdmann.
Winner Prediction: The Salesman
The safe money could be on German comedy Erdmann, but I’m leaning toward Iranian drama The Salesman. I could switch back before showtime.
Best Cinematography
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: My Nocturnal Animals love bore no fruit again as my first alternate Lion was nominated. Other nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight, and Silence.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
I’ll go with the probable Best Picture winner, but Moonlight and Arrival are possibilities.
Best Costume Design
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I guess I know my costumes as I correctly predicted Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land.
Winner Prediction: Jackie
The La La love could extend here and possibly even Colleen Atwood’s work for Fantastic Beasts, but I’ll go Jackie.
Best Editing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Hell or High Water got in as opposed to Manchester. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
This category often matches Picture and it should here, too. Hacksaw and Arrival have shots.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Todd’s Performance: 1/3
Analysis: Not so good… There were seven possibilities out of three nominees and I only was able to get Star Trek Beyond right. In place of Deadpool and Florence Foster Jenkins are A Man Called Ove and Suicide Squad.
Winner Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
I guess I’ll go with it since it’s the only one I named correctly. This could change…
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Analysis: Jackie and a legitimately unforeseen Passengers got in instead of Florence Foster Jenkins and Nocturnal Animals, along with La La Land, Lion, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
The musical should win here, but Lion could possibly be an upset winner. Not likely though.
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Expected nominees got in like the two from La La (“Audition” and “City of Stars”), Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go”, and Justin Timberlake’s Trolls chart topper “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”. I went with “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street but the voters surprisingly chose “”The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story, a tune that was never even on my radar.
Winner Prediction: “City of Stars” from La La Land
It’s won the Golden Globe and should take this one.
Best Production Design
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
Analysis: Damn production designers! This one threw me for a loop as I only got Arrival and La La Land right. I whiffed on Jackie (which I was certain would get in), Nocturnal Animals (again), and Silence. In their place: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, and those darn Passengers.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
La La should have this wrapped up over the competitors.
Best Sound Editing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Sully got in here instead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, along with Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, and La La Land.
Winner Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
Could be La La, Arrival, or even Deepwater, but I’ll give this to Hacksaw for its lone win.
Best Sound Mixing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Surprise nod here for 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. I had Sully picked. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Rogue One.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
Hard to imagine La La not taking this one.
Best Visual Effects
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Deepwater Horizon and Kubo and the Two Strings made it in as opposed to Arrival (bit surprised there) and Fantastic Beasts (not as much so). Other nominees: Disney trio Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, and Rogue One.
Winner Prediction: The Jungle Book
This could be a close one with Rogue, but I’ll predict Mowgli and his amazing CG animals pals.
That leaves this official breakdown of nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Arrival, Moonlight
6 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
4 Nominations
Fences, Hell or High Water
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Jackie
2 Nominations
Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
1 Nomination
Allied, Captain Fantastic, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fire at Sea, Hail, Caesar!, I Am Not Your Negro, Jim: The James Foley Story, The Jungle Book, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, The Lobster, Loving, My Life as a Zucchini, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Sully, Tanna, 13th, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Toni Erdmann, Trolls, 20th Century Women, Zootopia
And HERE is my current WINNER breakdown:
9 Wins
La La Land
2 Wins
Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
1 Win
Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, The Jungle Book, The Salesman, Star Trek Beyond, Zootopia
And that (whew) does it for now! You can rest assure I’ll be back shortly before the big ceremony to make final winner picks. Until then…
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