Tag: Michael Jackson’s This Is It

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour Box Office Prediction

Taylor Swift has proven over and again that she’s money in the bank when it comes to album and tour sales, merchandise, and even viewership for NFL games. The singer is about to enter her box office queen era when Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour hits theaters on October 13th. The concert film struck a distribution deal with AMC and Cinemark and the Friday the 13th (Taylor’s lucky number) drop date caused studios to shift their release patterns. For example, The Exorcist: Believer moved up a week to avoid direct confrontation.

Presales are already robust. It earned $37 million on the first day of tickets being available online. That means that in one day, it surpassed the best opening weekend for a concert pic ever. The record was held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Beth of Both Worlds Concert at $31 million, followed by Justin Bieber: Never Say Never with $29 million, and then This Is It with Michael Jackson at $23 million.

It goes without saying that the Swifties will cause this to shatter every previous best of mark for the concert genre. Just how high is the only real question. Swift’s previous filmography is littered with financial disappointments like Cats and Amsterdam. However, she wasn’t the focal point of either and her star has continued to rise.

The price of admission will be elevated at nearly $20 a pop for adults and that will push the earnings up. Some initial projections have this in the $100-120 million range out of the gate. I’ll admit that it’s a little murky as to how much this could bring in. This may not come as a shocker, but my gut says overestimating is smarter than underestimating when it comes to this show’s central figure. I’ll go above the forecast and give it the third best domestic frame of 2023 behind Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour opening weekend prediction: $139.6 million

Prey for the Devil Box Office Prediction

Director Daniel Stamm is no stranger to the demonic possession genre as he made The Last Exorcism in 2010. It made just beyond $20 million over a decade ago for its start and spawned a sequel. Lionsgate would thank the heavens for that kind of dough on October 28th with Prey for the Devil, Stamm’s latest. The PG-13 exorcism tale stars Jacqueline Byers as a nun investigating an evil influence. The supporting cast includes Colin Salmon, Christian Navarro, Lisa Palfrey, Virginia Madsen, and the late Ben Cross.

The Halloween weekend is actually not a fertile ground to open new product – scary or otherwise. There have only been three movies that debuted to $20 million or more in the spooky frame: Saw 3D in 2010 ($24 million), Michael Jackson’s This Is It in 2009 ($23 million), and 2004’s Ray ($20 million). In fact, just seven features have topped $10 million.

Another factor not in Devil‘s favor is the abundance of horror offerings in recent weeks such as Barbarian, Smile, and Halloween Kills. The last two could still be doing decent business as October closes.

Add that up and I’m not sure this manages to top double digits. Mid single digits might be more likely.

Prey for the Devil opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million

For my Till prediction, click here:

Till Box Office Prediction

For my Tár prediction, click here:

Tár Box Office Prediction