Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction

Chronicle director Josh Trank spearheads 20th Century Fox’s reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, some eight years after the last entry in the series. The big question is: how much of a clamoring is there for these heroes return to the silver screen?

Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara and Jamie Bell headline the cast in this reported $122 million tentpole that marks the third and final superhero flick of the summer, after Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron and Ant-Man. Fantastic Four has no hope of reaching Ultron numbers and may be lucky to even be in Ant-Man’s territory.

2005’s original Fantastic Four debuted to $56 million on its way to a $154 million domestic gross while its 2007 sequel Rise of the Silver Surfer opened slightly higher with $58 million. The follow-up did end up earning less overall with $134 million. Both premieres are right in line with Ant-Man’s $57 million first take some three weeks ago.

While any major league comic book film should have no problem making over $40 million out of the gate, this one’s ceiling may not be significantly higher. I’m not convinced audiences are overly eager for this series to come back and early word of mouth has been mixed, at best. I don’t see this making what Ant-Man or the first two Four pics made and a debut in the high 40s seems likely.

Fantastic Four opening weekend prediction: $47.7 million

For my prediction on The Gift, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/the-gift-box-office-prediction/

For my Ricki and the Flash prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/ricki-and-the-flash-box-office-prediction/

For my Shaun the Sheep Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/01/shaun-the-sheep-movie-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s 15 Most Anticipated 2015 Summer Movies: Nos. 15-11

In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.

Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.

I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

15. Spy

Release Date: June 5

Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.

14. Masterminds

Release Date: August 14

From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.

13. Vacation

Release Date: July 31

Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.

12. Southpaw

Release Date: July 24

Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.

11. Fantastic Four

Released Date: August 7

The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.

And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…

Ghostbusters and Superheroes

Four was the magic number today in movie news. Four as in this morning, the first trailer for the reboot of this summer’s The Fantastic Four was unveiled. You may recall when 20th Century Fox released two movies based on the iconic comic book in 2005 and 2007 with a cast that included Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis. They did decent business at the box office but critics and fans mostly disapproved. The reboot’s cast includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, Michael B. Jordan and Jamie Bell. Josh Trank, who burst upon the scene with his sleeper hit Chronicle, handles directing duties. The trailer certainly indicates a more serious tone than what we saw a decade ago. The picture is out August 7.

Four is also a significant number based on news we’ve been waiting to hear for some time. Ghostbusters is finally working its way back to the big screen with a highly comedically talented group of women being the ones who got the call. Paul Feig, maker of Bridesmaids and The Heat, directs and he’s enlisted previous collaborators Kristin Wiig and Melissa McCarthy as part of the quartet. Obviously this marks a Wiig-McCarthy reunion and Feig’s fourth pic with McCarthy (their third feature Spy is out this summer). The other two Busters are current SNL cast members: Kate McKinnon and Leslie Jones.

At one time it was thought that a traditional third pic in the franchise would eventually see the light of day. However it never materialized partly due to Bill Murray’s reported reluctance to return. By the time of Harold Ramis’s untimely passing year, director of the original two Ivan Reitman made it clear he had no interest in exploring a continuation. The new Ghostbusters is expected for release in summer 2016.

It will certainly be fascinating to watch how these two new rebooted foursomes resonate with moviegoers in the near future.

Fruitvale Station Movie Review

Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station doesn’t focus on the true life homicide of Oscar Grant as much as it tells the story of his life. A life that is still forming like any 22 year old man’s is. And yet the end result of Grant’s young existence permeates the whole picture because we know finality is very near.

On New Year’s Day 2009 at the title train station in Oakland, Oscar Grant (Michael B. Jordan) was killed when a police officer shot him while he was unarmed and handcuffed. The film opens with actual cell phone footage of the incident. We then move back hours before to New Year’s Eve and watch Oscar’s day and night unfold. There’s a birthday party for his mother (Octavia Spencer). His worries about recently losing his grocery store job and whether or not he’ll fall back into the trap of dealing drugs (he’s been incarcerated before and is on probation). His relationship with his girlfriend (Melonie Diaz) and young daughter (Ahna O’Reilly). And a fateful evening to go see fireworks in San Francisco and a return trip home that never occurs.

Fruitvale Station does not make Oscar Grant out to be a saint. He’s a complicated young man who’s conflicted about his fidelity to his girlfriend and how to earn money to care for his family. In a flashback jail scene, we see a side of rage in Oscar that may sadly be necessary in order for him to survive in that world.

First-time director/writer Coogler is a USC grad just like John Singleton, who made his debut feature Boyz N The Hood over twenty years ago. Both movies are similar in this way – they know their environments and portray them with honesty. Where Coogler’s screenplay succeeds best is its subtlety. He recognizes that by showing us the sometimes mundane activities of Oscar’s last hours, it still packs an emotional punch. Oscar and the people he loves and who love him don’t know what’s coming, but we do.

Michael B. Jordan gives a fantastic performance that is an announcement of quite an actor that we’ll be seeing a lot of. His emotional state, in quiet moments with his daughter to truly frightening ones in that station, varies greatly at times and there’s a never a moment where Jordan’s work isn’t completely believable. Diaz and O’Reilly are quite good and Spencer is outstanding as always, with a wrenching scene after Oscar’s death.

There are only a few occasions where the script veers into unnecessary dramatization, such as when Oscar tries to save a dog from dying on the road. For the vast length of its running time, Station simply shows us Oscar’s day. To him, it’s just another one. To us, we know it’s tragically much more than that. And it shouldn’t have been.

***1/2 (out of four)

That Awkward Moment Box Office Prediction

And so begins one of the more dull weekends of the year historically at the box office and 2014 seems no different. While moviegoers may catch up on some January leftovers or Oscar hopefuls, audience attention will likely be focused on another activity: the Denver Broncos vs. the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

This leaves only two modest openings which aren’t expected to rustle up much business. First off is That Awkward Moment, an R-rated rom com headlined by Zac Efron, Fruitvale Station‘s Michael B. Jordan, and Miles Teller. The film’s marketing campaign has been rather muted and that indicates a dearth of confidence from Focus Features.

That Awkward Moment stands a chance at a double digit premiere, but I think it’ll be lucky to reach the $8.7 million opening that 21&Over (a similarly themed title) reached in March 2013. I think Moment falls just under that.

That Awkward Moment opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my prediction on Labor Day, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/labor-day-box-office-prediction/