Six years ago in Oscar history began an impressive two year run for filmmaker Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu with Birdman emerging as the big winner of the evening. The film took Best Picture and Director over its major competitor – Richard Linklater’s Boyhood. This was a ceremony in which the largest category did have some suspense. Birdman took the prize over the aforementioned Boyhood and six other pics: American Sniper (the year’s top grosser), The Grand Budapest Hotel (marking Wes Anderson’s first and only Picture nominee), The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash.
In this blogger’s perfect world, Dan Gilroy’s Nightcrawler would have been recognized. It was my favorite movie of that year so get used to seeing it pop up in this post. Other notable selections from 2014 left on the cutting room floor: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, Bong Joon-ho’s Snowpiercer, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher.
Mr. Miller did have the notable distinction of being nominated for Best Director despite his work not showing up in Best Picture (very rare these days). As mentioned, Inarritu took the gold over Miller as well as Linklater, Anderson, and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game). Gilroy, Fincher, and Joon-ho might have warranted consideration in my view as well as Chazelle’s bravura debut in Whiplash.
One could argue that Nightcrawler isn’t your prototypical Picture contender. However, Jake Gyllenhaal being left out of the five Actor contenders stands as one of the noteworthy snubs in recent history. It was Eddie Redmayne emerging victorious for The Theory of Everything over his closest competitor Michael Keaton (Birdman). Other nominees: the three C’s of Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, picking up his third nomination in a row), and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game).
There is a voluminous list of solid performances beyond just Gyllenhaal’s that were left wanting. It includes Ben Affleck (Gone Girl), Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up), Bill Murray (St. Vincent), David Oyelowo (Selma), Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice), Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), and Miles Teller (Whiplash).
In Best Actress, Julianne Moore triumphed for Still Alice after four previous nominations without a win. She took the honor over Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild). Moore’s selection was one of the easiest to project as she’d been a sturdy frontrunner all season.
Looking back, how about Emily Blunt in Edge of Tomorrow? Its action genre trappings probably prevented consideration, but she might have made my quintet. Amy Adams won the Golden Globe for Actress in Musical/Comedy, but missed here.
Another easy (and absolutely deserved) winner was J.K. Simmons in Supporting Actor for Whiplash over Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher).
I will yet again mention Nightcrawler as I might have considered Riz Ahmed. There’s also Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice.
Boyhood nabbed its major race victory in Supporting Actress with Patricia Arquette. Other nominees were Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), and the always in contention Meryl Streep for Into the Woods.
As for others, I’ll start with (surprise) Rene Russo in Nightcrawler. Others include both Melissa McCarthy and Naomi Watts for St. Vincent in addition to Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) and Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice).
My Oscar History will continue soon with 2015 as Mr. Inarritu will dominate the director race yet again while the Academy chose to spotlight something in Best Picture!
Awards watching season kicks into (later than usual) gear this Sunday with the 78th Annual Golden Globes hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler! While I have not spent time doing weekly posts on this ceremony like I do with the Oscars, it’s certainly a potential sign of things to come from the Academy (and sometimes not so much).
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a notoriously tricky bunch to predict as they often call up out of nowhere nominees in their major categories. This year is no exception and that will be discussed below. The pandemic uncertainty that was 2020 and some races that truly feel wild open gives us some real drama as to the pictures and actors who will win on Sunday.
Simply put, I’ll feel good if I get half my predictions right and that’s a lower bar than usual. Let’s walk through each category with my estimated victor and runner-up, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Despite a better than anticipated showing for Promising Young Woman, this is likely a showdown between Nomadland and Trial (as I suspect it will be for the Oscars). Quite frankly, this is a tough call and basically a coin flip. However, I lean ever so slightly with HFPA going with the more traditional pick and that means Trial.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Nomadland
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
The inclusion of Sia’s critically drubbed Music stands as one of the more bizarre nods in recent Globes history and that’s saying a lot. Palm Springs certainly has its fervent fans while The Prom once seemed like a potential winner until its mixed reviews. Meryl Streep’s exclusion in the Actress field for it says something as well. So it’s Borat vs. Hamilton in my view. 14 years ago, the original Borat lost out to Dreamgirls. Certainly the overall pedigree and acclaim for Hamilton makes it a possibility, but the attention garnered by Sacha Baron Cohen’s sequel might be too hard to resist.
Predicted Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Hamilton
Best Director
Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Even with my Trial pick in Picture, Chloe Zhao has emerged as a heavy favorite for the duration of awards season and she has the critics trophies already to prove it. Fincher is probably more of a threat to upset than Sorkin here, but Zhao is one of the safer bets of the night.
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Runner-Up: David Fincher, Mank
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
It’s Davis vs. McDormand vs. Mulligan as I see it and there’s a case to be made for all three. That said, I already mentioned that Promising was a major winner on nomination morning as it achieved nods everywhere it really could have been expected to. I feel it’ll win somewhere and this is the most probable. Had Rainey got a Picture nod, I would probably list Davis as the runner-up, but I’ll go with McDormand instead.
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Sunday night could very well be the start of Boseman sweeping his way through the season. I do have a nagging feeling that Hopkins is going to win either here or at SAG. It would not be a shock at all for that to occur yet I’ll stick with Boseman.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
Expect Taylor-Joy to win on Sunday night, but not here. Instead she appears bound to get some hardware on the TV side for the heralded Queen’s Gambit. Like the picture itself, Hudson’s nomination was totally unforeseen. Bakalova was the breakout star of Borat. She’s being campaigned for in Supporting Actress at the Oscars, but the HFPA seems destined to honor her. Pfeiffer and Pike are moderate threats and I’ll give the runner-up edge to the former.
Predicted Winner: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Let’s face it: the Golden Globes this year has an excellent chance at turning into the Sacha Baron Cohen Show. He won this race for the first Borat and he’s the odds-on favorite to make it two for two. Miranda poses the only real threat in my opinion.
Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
For Foster and Zengel, it’s an honor to be nominated. As for the other three, this feels like a genuine three performer race in which I could easily foresee Close, Colman, or Seyfried’s name being called. I’m calling this (with zero confidence) for Seyfried as I think HFPA could go with the relative newcomer over Close and Colman (who have each won three Globes).
Predicted Winner: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Runner-Up: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (just over Colman)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Another really tough one. It would be right up HFPA’s alley to give Leto the surprise win. And Kaluuya and Odom Jr. are strong possibilities. I don’t feel great about saying Sacha will have this big of a night, but I kinda feel that’s the way this goes. Confidence level? Zilch.
Predicted Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This is an additional race where voters could choose to honor Promising Young Woman, but Trial is the frontrunner and I’m not picking against it.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
Don’t be surprised if this is the same Oscar five with the same result. While Wolfwalkers is a critical darling, it’s risky to bet against Pixar and I won’t do so.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us
The smart money is on Minari, which is expected to get a Best Picture nod from the Academy. However, I can’t help but point out that it picked up nominations nowhere else (including Actor, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay where it could have). That opens the door for Another Round which also has ardent supporters. I’m going for the slight upset.
Predicted Winner: Another Round
Runner-Up: Minari
Best Original Score
Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet
Another category that Oscar could match. And this may come down to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross vs. themselves for Mank and Soul. I’ll give their Pixar work the edge.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Mank
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah), “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “lo si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead), “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami), “Tigress & Tweed” (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Anything could happen here, but “Speak Now” is a trendy pick for the Oscar and HFPA could follow suit.
Predicted Winner: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
Runner-Up: “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
That means I’m predicting the following number of wins for these pictures:
3 Wins
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 Wins
Soul
1 Win
Another Round, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
And there you have it! My picks for the Sacha Baron… err, Golden Globes! Let’s see how it shakes out and I’ll have a post up Sunday night with my thoughts about the show and how I performed….
If you had told me yesterday that the Kate Hudson’s Music, which is directed by pop star Sia and hasn’t been released yet domestically, would achieve two Golden Globe nominations and that Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods would get zero, I might have said you’re crazy. Yet welcome to Awards Season 2020 as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association weighed in with their nods this morning and provided some genuine shockers (as they normally do).
There’s no doubt that the big loser today was Da 5 Bloods which was shut out while Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman performed better than expected. Much more to discuss so let’s break it down by each category, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 3/5
It must be said that The Father had a good morning as well along with Promising. Those two pictures made it in over my predictions of Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami. I will note that some pundits had Mank missing the cut, but I’ve never fully bought that it won’t perform well during this awards season.
Best Director
Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
How I Did: 4/5
Fennell’s inclusion here is the surest indication of HFPA’s love for her film. She makes it in over Spike Lee for Bloods. The HFPA did make some history in this race with 3 women nominated out of the five.
Best Actress – Drama
Nominees: Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 4/5
This pushes forward the narrative that Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan are a quartet likely to see SAG and Oscar nods. It’s been the fifth slot up for grabs and Andra Day got there over my prediction for Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. A GG nod could have helped Loren’s Oscar viability (let’s see if SAG mentions her tomorrow).
Best Actor – Drama
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
How I Did: 4/5
The 5 Bloods shutout produced the largest shocker in this particular category with Delroy Lindo being snubbed in favor of Tahar Rahim. Lindo should bounce back at SAG and we’ll know soon enough.
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
How I Did: 4/5
As previously stated, this Music pic came out of nowhere and stands as one of the enormous surprises. It got in over Emma. Others had On the Rocks in that spot and it whiffed too.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
How I Did: 3/5
Once again, Hudson’s name was certainly not expected. Pike’s inclusion is less surprising as I had her as my first alternate. They make the cut over Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs) and another unforeseen development… Meryl Streep (The Prom) not getting her expected nod. That doesn’t happen often.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
How I Did: 4/5
Not many pundits were guessing James Corden’s work in The Prom would be nominated and not his costar Meryl Streep. I had him off in favor of Leslie Odom, Jr. for Hamilton.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
How I Did: 4/5
Zengel’s inclusion here increases her visibility and if she gets a SAG nomination, her Oscar chances become quite real. The young performer made it in over the legendary Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
How I Did: 4/5
With the exception of that Kate Hudson movie, another morning jaw dropper was Jared Leto being recognized for The Little Things. Per another storyline of the day, he replaces Chadwick Boseman in the blanked Da 5 Bloods.
Best Film Screenplay
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 3/5
The Father and Promising Young Woman continued their encouraging runs here to the detriment of One Night in Miami and (again) Da 5 Bloods.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Behold the only race where I called it perfectly! Don’t be surprised if this is Oscar’s quintet as well.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us
How I Did: 3/5
Llorona and Two were named over Martin Eden and Quo Vadis, Aida? in a lineup that should come down to Round or (more likely) Minari.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet
How I Did: 4/5
No big surprise that Midnight Sky got in over Minari. This could well by the Oscar lineup.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Seen” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, “Tigress & Tweed” from The United State vs. Billie Holiday
How I Did: 2/5
An unpredictable group of songs for awards consideration proved to be just that with my worst performance of the day. It was “Fight”, “Voice” and “Tigress” in over “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest, “Only the Young” from Miss Americana, and “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon.
How I Did Overall: 51/70
That shakes out to the following number of nods for these pictures:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami
2 Nominations
Hamilton, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Mauritanian, Music, News of the World, Palm Springs, The Prom, Soul, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Emma, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, I Care a Lot, La Llorona, The Little Things, The Midnight Sky, Minari, On the Rocks, Onward, Over the Moon, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
You can expect predictions in all these races a couple of days before showtime on February 28th!
The biggest Oscar precursor thus far drops their nominations this Wednesday (with SAG following the next day) in a week where the awards picture should become a bit clearer.
Of course, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a habit of making some left field picks from time to time. And unlike the Academy, they split their film and lead acting races into Drama and Comedy/Musical.
Every week on the blog, I have been forecasting each Oscar race. However, for the Globes, it’s just one post with my final predictions for what I feel will happen on Wednesday. In every category, I’m also selecting a first and second alternate. We shall see how I do shortly!
P.S. – SAG Predictions are up tomorrow! Let’s get to it…
Best Film Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Second Alternate – The Father
Best Film Director
Predicted Nominees:
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
First Alternate – Florian Zeller, The Father
Second Alternate – Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
First Alternate – Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Second Alternate – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
First Alternate – Steven Yeun, Minari
Second Alternate – Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Emma
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
First Alternate – On the Rocks
Second Alternate – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
First Alternate – Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Second Alternate – Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
First Alternate – Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
Second Alternate – James Corden, The Prom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
First Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Second Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
First Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Second Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – The Father
Second Alternate – Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
First Alternate – The Willoughbys
Second Alternate – Earwig and the Witch
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden
Minari
Quo Vadis, Aida?
First Alternate – Dear Comrades!
Second Alternate – Beanpole
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
First Alternate – Hillbilly Elegy
Second Alternate – The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
First Alternate – “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Second Alternate – “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
And that breaks out to the following pictures receiving these numbers for nominations:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, The Life Ahead, Minari, Palm Springs
2 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Martin Eden, The Mauritanian, Miss Americana, News of the World, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Wolfwalkers
I’ll have reaction to the Globe nods up on Wednesday!
My final Oscars forecast for 2020 sees no changes in my nine Best Picture nominees (which has remained consistent for weeks), but some movement in other key races.
In Best Director, I have had David Fincher (Mank) listed at #1 for months, but that switches today as he falls to second with Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) taking the top spot. If she manages to take gold in April, Zhao would be just the second female to win the award behind Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker in 2009. Additionally, Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) is in my final five for the first time, replacing Regina King for One Night in Miami.
While there are no changes in the lead acting competitions, the supporting players are a different story. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari sees her first appearance in my five Supporting Actress hopefuls and that takes out Helena Zengel in News of the World. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor for Sound of Metal and that’s to the detriment of Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7.
You can peruse all the rest of the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 11)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 3)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
8. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 8)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
9. A Sun (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 6)
7. The Prom (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 3)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 8)
8. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 9)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 10)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 7)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Minari
4 Nominations
News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Sound of Metal, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The pre Christmas Oscar estimates are in! While my nine predicted Best Picture nominees remains the same (as they have for weeks), pay attention to Sound of Metal rising as it now ranks 10th and just on the outside looking in. Additionally, supporting players Paul Raci and Olivia Cooke are also looking like serious possibilities in those categories even if they’re not (yet) in the final five.
In Supporting Actor, Chadwick Boseman is back in (over Bill Murray in On the Rocks) as I’m feeling more confident of a double nomination for the late performer.
The fifth spot in Best Actress continues to fluctuate and this week we have Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) in that position over Michelle Pfeiffer’s work in French Exit.
Best Actor brings the first mention of Mads Mikkelsen’s role in Another Round at slot #8 with Ben Affleck (The Way Back) out of the top 10.
Adapted Screenplay sees its first look at First Cow in the projected cut and that takes out News of the World.
You can read all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions for the calendar year up next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 14)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 10)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demonslayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 3)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
76 Days
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
8. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlatan
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. The United vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. The Prom (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Mank (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 8)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Emma (PR: 6)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Greyhound
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 6)
7. Mank (PR: 7)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.
My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.
There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Prom (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Supernova
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lupin III: The First
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 5)
3. Time (PR: 2)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. Boys State (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
8. Collective (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. 76 Days (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Charlatan (PR: 9)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Minari (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 3)
7. Mulan (PR: 8)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Prom (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 5)
7. Mank (PR: 9)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
I took a little Turkey Day hiatus from my Oscar estimates, but I’m back at it today with fresh predictions! The major categories have stayed the same (albeit with some ranking movement) with one notable exception. In Best Actress, I have moved both Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) out of the top five in favor of Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Meryl Streep (The Prom).
We also have changes in both Screenplay races. In Original, Promising Young Woman (which seems to be gaining steam) is elevated over Da 5 Bloods. In Adapted, I’m Thinking of Ending Things gets the 5 spot and replaces News of the World.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Prom (PR: 14)
14. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
5. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 8)
10. Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. Connected (PR: 5)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
4. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 7)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. 76 Days (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
MLK/FBI
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Charlatan (PR: 10)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
The Disciple
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
7. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 2)
5. Emma (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
3. Tenet (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 3)
8. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Greyhound
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 7)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
9. Mank (PR: 10)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, I’m No Longer Here, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Prom, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
HBO Max (which is certainly in the news today for other reasons involving Warner Bros) has teamed with Steven Soderbergh and Meryl Streep for the streaming debut of Let Them All Talk on December 10th. The dramedy casts 21-time Oscar nominee Streep as an author taking a cruise with friends including Candice Bergen and Dianne Wiest. Lucas Hedge and Gemma Chan round out the supporting cast.
The review embargo is up today and based on a dozen write-ups, it actually sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, its Oscar chances seem iffy and that’s probably being generous. While some critics are quite positive, many of their takes do not indicate this will be any sort of awards hopeful. In fact, Streep’s 22nd nod is more likely to be in Netflix’s The Prom, which debuts just one day after Talk.
Soderbergh and Streep had another collaboration in 2019 with The Laundromat. It was long thought of as a potential Academy player until mixed reviews sunk its prospects. With this teaming, it was never really thought of as a contender and that should hold true. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Prior to its December 11th bow on Netflix, the musical romantic comedy The Prom has screened for critics and the general consensus is that it’s a crowd pleaser that should see plenty of streams in a few days. An adaptation of the 2018 Broadway musical, super producer Ryan Murphy handles directorial duties with an impressive cast including Meryl Streep, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Keegan-Michael Key, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, and Jo Ellen Pellman.
The current Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 75%. Plenty of reviews praise its feel good vibes and that could be especially welcome in this thing we call 2020. On the other hand, the negative reaction is quite negative and that includes some pretty high profile publications that include EW and The AV Club. Netflix has plenty of major Oscar contenders this year and I wonder how hard they’ll press for inclusion here. While it should nab some Golden Globe nods (including the Musical/Comedy Picture race), the Academy’s love is far less certain.
If audiences sing its praises and it’s a runaway hit, I believe The Prom has an outside shot at Picture. As for its performers, Streep should never be counted out and this would mark her 22nd nomination. I feel her chances in the final five are better than they were a couple weeks back, but I’m currently reluctant having her make the cut. Same goes for Nicole Kidman in Supporting Actress or anyone else.
The best shot could be in down the line categories such as Costume Design, Sound, or one of its songs (though the recently released “Wear Your Crown” with Streep rapping has drawn plenty of eye rolls). Bottom line: don’t discount The Prom‘s ability to make it into the dance in Picture or Actress, but it’ll need lots of goodwill to get there.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 