Tag: Melissa Villaseñor

Oscar Predictions: Toy Story 5

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story franchise has had a storied history at the Oscars and it would be more impressive had the Best Animated Feature category existed prior to 2001. The original from 1995 and its 1999 sequel would have been near certainties for that statue (even with part two facing serious competition from The Iron Giant, South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut, and Princess Mononoke). In 2010, Toy Story 3 not only won the animated race, but was up for Best Picture. Nine years later, the fourth feature didn’t nab a BP slot but did take the animation prize.

That brings us to Toy Story 5, out this weekend. Andrew Stanton, who’s already taken Best Animated Feature twice for Finding Nemo and Wall-E, finally takes over directorial duties after co-creating the series over 30 years ago. Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing the iconic characters of Woody and Buzz along with returnees Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Ernie Hudson, Bad Bunny, and Alan Cumming.

Unsurprisingly, reviews for Toy Story 5 are just fine… with a caveat. While the Rotten Tomatoes meter is 94%, Metacritic is at 74. That’s easily the lowest of the quintet with second lowest being #4 at 84. For that matter, that RT score is the “lowest” as well with the next being the fourth again at 97%.

Why is this important? I think it tells us that, like #4, a Best Picture nomination isn’t happening. Nor is this in the mix for Adapted Screenplay where #3 competed. It also opens the door to #5 not being a shoo-in to win Animated Feature though we’ll see what competition arises in the months to come. Recent examples of Mouse House sequels not taking that trophy are Incredibles 2, Inside Out 2 and Zootopia 2.

Every previous Toy Story flick has seen an Original Song nominated with Randy Newman’s “We Belong Together” victorious for #3. It’s hard to imagine Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” not getting one of the five spots. It’s already a radio mainstay and would mark the pop star’s first Oscar nod. This is a golden opportunity for the Academy to have her perform at the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction

30 plus years after kicking off the Pixar craze for parent company Disney, Woody and Buzz are back in theaters with Toy Story 5 on June 19th. The beloved franchise arrives seven years after the fourth entry which set a series best in terms of domestic earnings at $434 million. Andrew Stanton, maker of Pixar smashes Finding Nemo and Wall-E, directs his first Toy tale (he had screenwriter or story credit on the previous ones). Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing their iconic characters as are Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Bad Bunny, Ernie Hudson, and Alan Cumming.

Each Story since 1995 has topped the grosses of its predecessor (non adjusted for inflation). Toy Story 4 also had the largest opening of the quartet at $120 million (the third did $110 million). Early word-of-mouth suggests this is an improvement over part 4. That should mean this has no trouble setting a new series debut record. It it doesn’t, that would be considered a letdown.

I think the floor is $130 million. While not out of the question that this could surpass it, Pixar’s all-time largest premiere held by Incredibles 2 at $182 million should stay intact. Toy Story 5 should, however, challenge Inside Out 2 at #2 and its $154 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that for the highest 2026 start, besting The Super Mario Galaxy Movie‘s $131 million.

Toy Story 5 opening weekend prediction: $166.8 million

For my The Death of Robin Hood prediction, click here:

The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

Hoppers Box Office Prediction

On March 6th, Hoppers looks to jumpstart Disney/Pixar’s fortunes after the underwhelming Elio and before the anticipated summer juggernaut Toy Story 5. The animated sci-fi comedy marks the feature-length directorial debut from Daniel Chong. Voiceover contributors include Piper Curda, Bobby Moynihan, Jon Hamm, Kathy Najimy, Dave Franco, Eduardo Franco, Aparna Nancherla, Sam Richardson, Melissa Villaseñor, Isiah Whitlock Jr., Ego Nwodim, Vanessa Bayer, and Meryl Streep.

Two of the last three Pixar big screen offerings failed to reach $30 million in their opening weekends. While 2024’s Inside Out 2 surpassed $150 million in its premiere, original material struggled. 2023’s Elemental kicked off with $29 million though it legged out impressively with $154 million domestically overall. That was not the case with last summer’s Elio. It only earned $20 million initially and $72 million when all was said and done stateside.

Projections for Hoopers are all over the place. Depending on who you read, it could fail to launch in the low 20s or get to $50 million. With decent word-of-mouth, I am forecasting it gets to mid 40s.

Hoppers opening weekend prediction: $43.6 million

For my The Bride! prediction, click here:

The Bride! Box Office Prediction

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction

Based on the popular Netflix kids show that began in 2021, Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie hopes to welcome family audiences beginning September 26th. The fantasy comedy mix of live-action and animation is directed by Ryan Crego with Laila Lockhart Kraner reprising her leading role from the series. Costars include Gloria Estefan, Ego Nwodim, Kyle Mooney, Melissa Villaseñor, Fortune Feimster, and Kristen Wiig (lots of SNL alum). Thomas Lennon and Jason Mantzoukas provide voice work contributions.

Dollhouse could benefit by catering to a young female audience and the lack of competition from kid centric features. The rosiest of projections have this approaching $30 million and that could put it in contention for 1st place over One Battle After Another. I doubt it gets that high and I’ll say high teens low 20s is the likelier scenario.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million

For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction

For my The Strangers – Chapter 2 prediction, click here:

The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction