Sony Pictures is hoping ADog’sWayHome will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made DolphinTale and its sequel, directs.
When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, ADog’sPurpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, MeganLeavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, DogDays managed just $2.5 million.
My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.
ADog’sWayHome opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
This should be one interesting weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debut: Pixar sequel Cars 3, Scarlett Johansson bachelorette comedy Rough Night, Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me, and shark attack thriller 47 Meters Down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Cars 3 should easily take its place atop the charts (as pretty much all Pixar features do). However, my estimate for it puts it below both of its predecessors.
Wonder Woman displayed a remarkable hold in its sophomore frame (more on that below) and should hold the #2 spot over the influx of newbies.
If there’s one picture with breakout potential, it’s All Eyez on Me. Just two summers ago, we saw Straight Outta Compton greatly exceed all expectations when it grossed over $60 million out of the gate. Eyez doesn’t seem to have that kind of buzz going for it, but I’m predicting a sturdy third place showing.
That puts Rough Night in fourth with a rather ho-hum debut. It seems to be sliding down considerably from its original $25 million projections.
The Mummy stumbled in its premiere (more on that below as well) and I foresee a hefty dip in weekend #2 for fifth place.
Maybe it’s not wise to bet against audience love for sharks (The Shallows proved that last summer), but I’ve got 47 Meters Down earning the least among the fresh quartet for a sixth place showing.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the bustling weekend ahead:
1. Cars 3
Predicted Gross: $57.8 million
2. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $32.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. All Eyez on Me
Predicted Gross: $24.4 million
4. Rough Night
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
5. The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 58%)
6. 47 Meters Down
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 9-11)
As mentioned, Wonder Woman continued its terrific run by dropping only 43% (a noteworthy hold for its genre) to $58.5 million. This topped my $49.5M projection and brought its ten-day total to $206 million. The superhero flick stands a decent shot at overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 as the season’s hottest ticket.
Tom Cruise’s The Mummy was hindered by poor reviews and word of mouth with a second place opening at $31.6 million (a bit under my $34.7M forecast). While it’s doing better overseas, this will undoubtedly be a major disappointment stateside.
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12.1 million, under my $14.1M projection for a so-so overall gross of $44M.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $10.2M) to bring its tally to $135M.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $6.3 million and has earned $366M total.
That’s because critically acclaimed horror pic It Comes at Night had a soft showing with just $5.9 million in sixth (I said $9.5M). While reviews were strong, audience reaction has been negative and look for this to fade very quickly.
Finally, the combo of military themes and dogs gave Megan Leavey an 8th place debut with $3.7 million (I said $3.3M).
Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is WonderWoman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic TheMummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick ItComesatNight and military themed biopic MeganLeavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee WonderWoman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.
CaptainUnderpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between PiratesoftheCaribbean in its third frame and ItComesatNight. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.
As for MeganLeavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Predicted Gross: $34.7 million
3. CaptainUnderpants: TheFirstEpicMovie
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. PiratesoftheCaribbean: DeadMenTellNoTales
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as WonderWoman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.
CaptainUnderpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars3 and DespicableMe3 this month.
PiratesoftheCaribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.
GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.
Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.
This weekend sees the release of MeganLeavey, a tale of a real life wondrous woman. It stars Kate Mara in the title role of a US Marine corporal and her combat dog Rex. The Bleecker Street production costars Edie Falco, Common, Tom Felton, and Bradley Whitford.
It’s not easy to bet against a picture with military themes that could also appeal to dog lovers, but Leavey seems to be flying under the radar. Female audiences could also still be distracted by the sophomore frame of WonderWoman. I’ve yet to see a theater count at press time and that could alter my estimate. For now, I’ll say it falls below $4 million for a muted debut.
MeganLeavey opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million