Oscar Predictions: Obsession

Curry Barker’s Obsession is out this weekend and exceeding expectations at the box office along with its glowing reviews. The horror flick about a granted wish gone horribly awry stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 77 Metacritic. Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette headline with Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter in the supporting cast.

This is not a genre that has historically performed well with awards voters. However, the Academy has shown a willingness to embrace it under the right circumstances. Obsession sports an A- Cinemascore grade. That’s very high for a scary movie and the first to do so since Zach Cregger’s Weapons. I bring it up because that movie ended up being Amy Madigan’s Oscar-winning Supporting Actress turn just two months ago. I suspect it also came close to an Original Screenplay nomination.

If Focus Features mounts a genuine campaign, I wouldn’t totally discount Navarrette’s chances in Best Actress. Her fatally attracted performance is receiving plenty of kudos as is Barker’s original screenplay. Obsession will not reach the financial heights of Cregger’s work even if it plays well throughout the summer. I wouldn’t count on it ultimately being an awards contender, but Weapons proved it’s a possibility at the previous ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Obsession Box Office Prediction

Focus Features looks for genre fans to lock in on Obsession when it debuts May 15th. From writer/director Curry Barker, who will soon be taking over The Texas Chainsaw Massacre franchise, the horror flick originally premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Michael Johnston, Inde Navarrette, Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter lead the cast.

With a teensy budget of around $1 million, Obsession captured the attention of patrons at TIFF during midnight showings. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Focus reportedly bought the rights for $15 million with hopes of a sleeper hit.

The optimistic projections have this managing $10 million to low teens. I’m not sure the awareness factor will allow for that so I’ll go just under double digits.

Obsession opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

For my In the Grey prediction, click here: