Blogger’s Update II (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
**Blogger’s Update (11/07): It turns out Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is indeed staying in theaters and I’m putting it in second with an anticipated drop in the mid 30s
The Marvel Cinematic Universe should have no trouble hitting #1 again with The Marvels, but the premiere is expected to be well on the low end of the now 33 pics in the franchise. We also have the faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem and the wide expansion of Oscar hopeful The Holdovers out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
As of now, I have The Marvels having the third lowest MCU opening in its decade and a half run. It could possibly have the smallest of them all if it debuts below the $55 million that The Incredible Hulk (the second feature of the bunch) started with in 2008. **Keep an eye on this post through Thursday to see if my projection dwindles.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, should slide to second. Its sophomore frame saw a gigantic plummet (more on that below). The third weekend shouldn’t be as dramatic a fall, but the 60-65% range is certainly possible.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, per a previous announcement, is allegedly finished with its box office run after amassing $166 million domestically and easily setting concert pic records. That’s why you won’t find it in my projected five. If that dynamic changes, I’d place it in third or probably even second.
The 3-5 spots, therefore, should be a mix of Killers of the Flower Moon, Journey to Bethlehem, and The Holdovers and you could make decent arguments for the order. I’ve got it close.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $46.3 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
3. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
4. Journey to Bethlehem
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. The Holdovers
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (November 3-5)
November began with a whimper with the worst frame of 2023 thus far. As you may recall, this was the weekend Dune: Part Two was supposed to come out before its pushback to spring 2024.
That left Five Nights at Freddy’s in first place despite a gargantuan 76% drop to $19 million. I was more generous at $27.6 million. Even with its clearly front loaded business, the PG-13 horror flick (which is also available on Peacock) has delivered $113 million in its first ten days of release.
With scant competition in the marketplace, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour eased just 12% for second place with $13.5 million. That remarkable hold placed it well above my $8.3 million take. As mentioned, it has finished (?) its run at $166 million as streamers mount a bidding war for the rights.
Killers of the Flower Moon also held better than I figured for third in its third weekend with $6.8 million. I went with $5.8 million. The Oscar contender has taken in $52 million.
Priscilla performed respectably in fourth with $5 million, besting my $3.9 million call. The biopic had a similar per theater average to Ms. Swift’s fourth frame gross. The performance represents earnings at the top end of its anticipated range.
I incorrectly didn’t make a call for Radical, the well-reviewed dramedy with Eugenio Derbez. It rounded out the top five with $2.6 million on just over 400 screens. That gave it the highest average of any movie in the top ten.
My #5 pick was After Death at $3.2 million. Yet it was all the way down in 8th (behind The Exorcist: Believer and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie) with $2 million after its 60% slide.
Finally, I had the Meg Ryan rom com What Happens Later (a phrase not used in many years) making $1.7 million. It came in slightly below that at $1.5 million for ninth position.
Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.
The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.
Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.
I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.
The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million
For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
We will see if it struggles at the box office (which is expected) or exceeds projections, but Blue Beetle is topping expectations with its reviews. The 14th pic in the DC Universe currently has the 4th best Rotten Tomatoes score (81%) behind Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and The Suicide Squad. Ángel Manuel Soto directs the origin story with Xolo Maridueña as the title hero.
The MCU has racked up plenty of Visual Effects nods (though no victories) in addition to a BP nod for Black Panther five years ago. The DCU’s awards exposure has been far more limited. 2016’s Suicide Squad (not the stronger reviewed 2021 reboot The Suicide Squad) won for Makeup and Hairstyling. And that, my friends, is the extent of the DCU Oscar mentions.
It is worth noting that Visual Effects this year looks kind of thin. The unseen Dune: Part Two is probably the easy frontrunner while the other four slots are up for grabs. Beetle is getting some praise for its visuals and it likely stands a better chance than earlier ’23 DCU titles Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. If it can make the shortlist, maybe it gets in. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.
We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.
David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).
Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).
The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.
Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.
I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.
For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.
Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.
All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).
Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.
So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 marches to the beat of the writer-director James Gunn’s carefully curated playlist of the mawkish blended with the macabre. The actual needle drops are plentiful from Radiohead to Florence and the Machine and Earth, Wind & Fire and Spacehog (there’s actually CG swine in space in case you were wondering). Storyline A inflicts enough grotesque violence on cute furry creatures that I anticipated Sarah McLachlan piping up with a syrupy ballad, but it isn’t to be.
Team captain Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) is far from over the death of Gamora (Zoe Saldaña) in Avengers: Infinity War as we begin. Since it’s the MCU, she didn’t perish in the traditional way. The character was back as a different version of herself and with amnesia of her primary franchise’s activities in Avengers: Endgame. Now the leader of the thieving Ravagers, Gamora reunites with the old gang when Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) is attacked and left critically wounded. As a reminder, the team also consists of Gamora’s half sister Nebula (Karen Gillan), charmingly dense warrior Drax (Dave Bautista), empath Mantis (Pom Klementieff), and Bob Ross favorite Groot with Vin Diesel grumbling his limited dialogue.
The highly intelligent raccoon Rocket is given the full flashback origin treatment in the third volume. His demented creator is Orgocorp CEO High Evolutionary (a scenery devouring Chukwudi Iwuji) who specializes in developing hybrid creatures and discarding them if they don’t meet his standards. Spoiler: the vast majority do not. Rocket is one of his most prized subjects from his dozens of batches at Orgocorp. It is only at the corporate headquarters that his life can be saved so the Guardians set course.
Along the way there’s stops at other galaxies including the bizarro Counter-Earth with its populace of human/animal hybrids. That extended sequence is an example of Gunn at his best with the grimly comedic gumbo. It works well on that planet and in plenty of other moments. Rocket’s backstory does manage to pull the heartstrings fairly successfully.
All other subplots are given the short shrift. Drax and Mantis have a few humorous bits though they’re truly secondary characters this time (as is Groot). Even the presence of Gamora, while giving the gifted Saldaña basically a fresh character to play, takes a backseat to Rocket’s launch in the plot. I’ll note that it’s taken this long to mention Adam Warlock (Will Poulter). He was teased at the end of volume 2 as a nemesis to the title heroes. Adam is responsible for Rocket’s wounds and then the script doesn’t really know what the heck to do with him. He could’ve been written out the script entirely and it would’ve made zero difference. Pratt’s work as Peter Quill/Star-Lord is still a treat. It’s an MCU casting decision that ranks almost as high as Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man. He manages not to be overshadowed by his omnivorous costar.
Of the various sub-franchises in the Marvel Cinematic Universe containing three entries or more, Guardians is surprisingly the first where quality flows in order of release. That’s not to say the quality is missing. It’s that the mix has more lowlights than the previous two and definitely runs longer than necessary. Gunn still manages to make the sentimental and sometimes sadistic concoction worthwhile and it’s a cut above most MCU material post Endgame.
Just as “Nuking the Fridge” has become shorthand for introducing unwanted material in a beloved franchise (courtesy of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull) – “Waving the Baby” may enter the lexicon thanks to The Flash. You’ll see what I mean in the opening scene of the DCEU adventure. There’s shoddy visual effects accompanying the term that may produce unintended laughter. That said, I kind of warmed up to this initial action sequence with Ezra Miller’s title character given a save the day assignment from Alfred the Butler (Jeremy Irons, reprising his role from Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Justice League). Like much of the first half, it’s light and quirky and (despite their offscreen troubles) Miller shines in a dual role. There’s genuine moments of intended laughter too. The second half is where this becomes overbaked and the frequent surprise cameos don’t save it. It’s a countdown to continued mediocrity after a sturdy start.
The Flash’s alter ego is Barry Allen and he’s assisting Ben Affleck’s version of the Caped Crusader (and others) as we begin. He’s doing a bit of the grunt work while his Justice League teammates handle cooler assignments. Barry’s mom (Maribel Verdú) was murdered when he was a youngster. His dad (Ron Livingston) was wrongly convicted of the crime and is imprisoned with an appeal on deck. The possibility of time travel is introduced giving Barry a potential green light to undo the childhood trauma and save his family. We know through countless features that going back to alter the future never works as intended. By the way, there’s some enjoyable reference to Back to the Future and additional 80s classics.
Before we know it, Barry/The Flash is stuck in a multiverse situation with a younger and not as scientifically gifted version of himself. In this world, Affleck doesn’t don the Batsuit. Instead we are given the chance to witness Michael Keaton back in the role for the first time in over 30 years. His Bruce Wayne is long out of the limelight, but the Barry’s visit to his Manor might get him to repeat iconic line readings once again.
There’s less memorable character reappearances in the alternate reality. Michael Shannon reprises his turn as General Zod from Man of Steel as does Antje Traue as his second-in-command. If you weren’t clamoring for that bad guy’s comeback, I get it. He was a weak nemesis a decade ago and he is again. This isn’t really Shannon’s fault, who’s a gifted performer in plenty of other films. He simply doesn’t have much of a role to flesh out. If comic book movies are as solid as the villains, The Flash is offtrack.
Of course, weak villains have been a staple of the DCEU and MCU and other factors often rescue them. For awhile, that’s the situation. Miller excels with the comedic timing and dramatic beats. Given that the initial hour plus focuses on the older and socially awkward Barry teaching dumber but happier Barry how to become a superhero, there’s plenty of entertainment value. Then it goes and clocks in at nearly two and half hours. Keaton’s return is welcome at first. Gimmicky? Sure. Sasha Calle’s debut as Supergirl is underwritten though her performance is promising if she’s given screen time in future entries.
The latter portions of The Flash are interchangeable from about every other genre experience. We’re talking loud, messy, and dull battles. By then, it doesn’t much matter that Keaton is in uniform or Miller’s performance is impressive. They’re drowned out by effects. The multiverse happenings (and we do see plenty of alternate realities with familiar faces) are becoming standard procedure thanks to Doctor Strange and Spider-Men. Barry’s familial dynamics are also well covered territory.
I’d have no trouble recommending The Flash if it stopped after about 75 minutes. Unfortunately it keeps running and the time remaining alters a universe in which it is ultimately satisfying.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.
That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.
Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $58.4 million
2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million
3. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
5. The Boogeyman
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (June 2-4)
Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).
The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.
PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.
Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes for a highly likely first place debut while The Boogeyman lurks for a start in third position. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Spidey is the follow-up to 2018’s Oscar-winning animated adventure Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. In addition to plenty of awards, it had an A+ Cinemascore grade and nearly $200 million in domestic sales. Anticipation should be elevated for the sequel (with part 3 coming next year). That’s why some estimates have this as lofty as $100 million. I’m a tad more conservative, but I’ll say it clears $90 million.
The Boogeyman should take advantage of its PG-13 rating, the connection to Stephen King for the source material, and that there’s been a slight lull between horror flicks. Heck – it probably helps that it’s called The Boogeyman. I could see this opening similarly to The Black Phone and Smile. That would mean high teens or low 20s for a solid third place showing.
Memorial Day weekend champ The Little Mermaid should drop to second after a mixed bag of a debut (more on that below). A mid 50s dip (similar to the live-action Aladdin four years ago) would mean a number slightly north of $40 million.
The 4-5 slots should belong to sequel holdovers Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It could be a close race between the two as they each may earn a tad over $10 million.
Here’s how I see it looking:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $96.4 million
2. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $40.5 million
3. The Boogeyman
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
4. Fast X
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
Box Office Results (May 26-29)
As expected, Disney’s The Little Mermaid (updating the 1989 classic) swam to the top of the charts. It did so on the lower end of its expected range. Over the four-day holiday, the total was $118.8 million. That’s below my take of $132.1 million. While nowhere near the starts of Beauty and the Beast or The Lion King from 2017 and 2019, it is on pace with what Aladdin accomplished over Memorial Day four years back.
Fast X slipped to second with $28.5 million and that managed to exceed my $25.4 million estimate. Vin Diesel and company have seen the beginning to the end of their two-decade long franchise earn $113 million thus far.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was third with $26.8 million, on target with my $26 million call. The MCU threequel stands at $306 million.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie took fourth place with $8.2 million (I said $7.6 million) to bring its massive haul to $560 million.
Spots 5-7, as anticipated, went to three newcomers. I didn’t correctly call their placements. The Machine with popular standup and podcaster Bert Kreischer was fifth with $5.8 million, ahead of my $3.7 million forecast. While not spectacular, it’s on the better end of its predicted range.
About My Father, featuring another popular standup Sebastian Maniscalco alongside Robert De Niro, was on the lesser end of the range. The family comedy was sixth with $5.3 million. I said a touch more at $6.2 million.
Finally, Gerard Butler’s action pic Kandahar bombed in seventh with only $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I discuss all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you like to stream. Until next time…
For about the first hour of Shazam! Fury of the Gods, the stakes feel about as high as ordering a cheesesteak. I guess given the setting of Philly, maybe that’s something to be taken seriously. In the second half, the Phillies Stadium and I assume the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall are in danger of being decimated Independence Day style (or countless comic book action flicks).
With nearly the entire team returning including director David F. Sandberg, part 2 of the DC Comics property is unwieldy in its tone. The happy-go-lucky vibe of Shazam! and Zachary Levi’s enjoyable performance made it worth a view. It was also, to be fair, mostly forgettable and clearly worked better as a one-off.
You may recall (or not) that high schooler Billy Batson (Asher Angel) received the abilities of Shazam from Djimon Hounsou’s wizard in the 2019 original. This gave him the form of Levi’s red caped superhero yet it did not grant him wisdom beyond his teenage mind. Billy/Shazam still managed to outwit Mark Strong’s mad scientist with the help of his foster care siblings who were also soon bestowed with superhuman strengths. That includes brother Freddy Freeman (Jack Dylan Grazer as younger and Adam Brody in grownup spandex form) and he has a unique love interest
Anne (Rachel Zegler from West Side Story) is the new girl at school who looks amazing for her age. She’s actually Anthea, the centuries old daughter of Greek god Atlas. Her other sisters are Hespera (Helen Mirren) and Kalypso (Lucy Liu) and they are determined to reclaim powers taken from them ages ago. The Daughters of Atlas look far apart in age. Lucy Liu’s middle child is the Jan Brady of this bunch as she’s got the most up her sleeve. Young Anne (she’s only 6000 it’s revealed) is the sweet one who might not be bent on world destruction after all. And despite Mirren’s presence, the trio’s motivations aren’t particularly spellbinding. Once again we have a comic book adaptation where the villains are a weakness. The MCU and this DCEU are frequent offenders.
Four years ago, it was easier to root for Levi’s charming underdog of a title character. Gods just never clicks and average CG and action sequences keep the mediocrity intact. Standard wizardry is ordered in this follow-up. The result is that I could have done witout it (spelling error intended, Philadelphians).
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 