It was exclusively revealed today by The Hollywood Reporter that My Mom Jayne is eligible for Oscar consideration in the Documentary Feature competition. Marking the directorial debut of Mariska Hargitay (of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit fame), the actress explores the life of her mother who passed away when she was just three years old. That mom would be Hollywood starlet Jayne Mansfield.
The doc premiered at Cannes and was released on Max (or HBO Max or whatever they’re calling it this week) in late June. The Reporter‘s reporting reveals that it was given a low-key theatrical run which puts it in awards contention.
Reviews for Jayne give it 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. The article makes it clear that Hargitay and Max will give it a spirited campaign. That said, the doc branch at the Academy has been reluctant and arguably allergic to nominating works centered on notable celebs. Recent snubs include Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Val (focused on the late Val Kilmer), and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. And that’s just scratching the surface when it comes to omissions.
Therefore this faces an uphill climb to enter voter consciousness. We may find out just how effective Max is at campaigning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.
Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.
Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $83.6 million
2. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.
Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.
Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.
Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.
Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.
Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.
Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.
At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.
I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.
Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million
In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.
The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.
Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.
Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.
Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Fireworks and hot dogs may be predictable on July 4th weekend, but 2015’s box office for the holiday is anything but. There are four pictures that all have legitimate shots at being #1 and they include newcomers Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL. You can read my detailed predictions on each of them here:
Both face heavy competition from Jurassic World, which has been spent three weeks on its record breaking #1 run and Pixar’s Inside Out, which has itself set records while perched at second for the last two weeks.
As I see it, I believe there will be a photo finish between Terminator, Jurassic, and Inside Out with Magic Mike taking fourth place due to a projected front loaded five day gross when its hardcore female fans may rush to watch it Wednesday and Thursday. Genisys also opens Wednesday.
Ted 2 came in well below expectations this past weekend (more on that below) and looks to place fifth.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. Terminator Genisys
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $48.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $30.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
3. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Magic Mike XXL
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. Ted 2
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
As mentioned, Jurassic World continued its history making stampede and placed #1 for the third frame in a row with $54.5 million (ahead of my $51.1M estimate). The three week total stands at an amazing $500 million and looks to place third, if not second, on all time domestic earners.
Pixar’s Inside Out maintained its runner-up status with $52.3 million, in line with my $53.4M projection. Its two week total is $185 million and it should pass the $350M mark with relative ease.
Seth MacFarlane’s comedy sequel Ted 2 posted lackluster results that were well below expectations with $33.5 million, far below my $50.8M prediction. This is a far cry from the $54M earned by the original three summers ago.
The family dog drama Max debuted fourth to an OK $12.2 million, under my $13.9M prediction and Melissa McCarthy’s Spy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million – on pace with my $7.6M estimate for a total of $88M.
It’s been a record breaking June 2015 so far and this upcoming weekend looks to keep up the torrid box office pace as three films look to each earn $50M or more. There are two newcomers out: comedy sequel Ted 2 and military dog family drama Max. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
The real question is what comes out on top this weekend? It could be Ted 2, which I have making slightly less than its 2012 predecessor out of the gate (though it could certainly earn more). It could be Jurassic World for the third weekend in a row as it looks to extend its record breaking box office pace. Or it could be Pixar’s Inside Out, which I anticipate having a smaller second weekend decline than Jurassic‘s third weekend drop off. As you’ll see below, I expect it to be a photo finish among all three.
Max should place a distant fourth with Spy rounding out the top five.
And with that, my predictions the weekend’s top five:
1. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $53.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)
2. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $51.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Ted 2
Predicted Gross: $50.8 million
4. Max
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
5. Spy
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
Box Office Results (June 19-21)
Several records once again fell by the wayside this weekend as Jurassic World remained #1 with $106.5 million to bring its total to $402M in just ten days. The dino reboot soared past my $88.3M projection and accomplished the largest second weekend in domestic history. World is well on its way to becoming the biggest grosser of summer 2015.
It may have come in second, but Pixar has much to celebrate with its amazing $90.4 million debut for Inside Out, well above my $71.4M prediction. The critically acclaimed animated feature had the highest opening for a story based on original material, outpacing Avatar‘s $77M previous record breaker. Additionally it scored the second largest debut for a Pixar property after only 2010’s Toy Story 3. It also set the record for biggest debut not to come in at #1 (previously held by the $68M earned by 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow). The only downside is it’s the first Pixar feature not to open on top, but don’t look for Disney to cry into their piles of money too much. Look for Inside Out to continue its impressive run in subsequent weekends.
Holdovers held up better than my estimates as Spy was third with $11.2 million (above my $9.1M estimate). San Andreas took fourth with $8.7 million (ahead of my $5.2M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $75M and $132M.
The only other newcomer, Dope, had a middling premiere with $6.1 million, under my $7.7M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Warner Bros family feature Max, out Friday, has quite a bit working against it when you consider its competition. It won’t be the movie most kids are going to see next weekend factoring in Jurassic World and Inside Out. It won’t be the highest grosser with an animal with Ted 2 opening the same day. It won’t even be the biggest summer grosser with the word Max in it when factoring in that mad one from May.
The studio’s best hope is that critics like it and it becomes a word of mouth sleeper hit, which is an uphill climb. Max tells the story of a military working dog who returns home from Afghanistan and Remember the Titans director Boaz Yakin is behind the camera. Thomas Haden Church, Lauren Graham and Jay Hernandez are among the human costars.
Unless Max succeeds in bringing in a sizable military contingent, the pic seems destined for a premiere in the low to mid teens for a probable fourth place showing next weekend.
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