My first Oscar predictions for November sees the contenders in Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remaining the same. In the supporting fields, there are two changes to report. In Supporting Actress, I’m putting Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) in over Olivia Colman (Elsinore). However, in Supporting Actor, The Odyssey‘s John Leguizamo falls out in favor of Edward Norton (The Invite).
While Best Actor still has the same quintet, I’m putting John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) back in the top spot and that takes Andrew Scott (Elsinore) down to second. Andrew Garfield (Artificial) makes his inaugural appearance in first in Supporting Actor with longtime #1 Paul Giamatti (The Debut) sliding to the runner-up slot.
There’s a notable development in Original Song. As discussed on the blog previously, Diane Warren is a mainstay in this competition with 17 nominations and zero victories. This year, it was assumed that her title track from the Mark Wahlberg crime drama By Any Means would be her tune in contention. Now another song from Warren has entered the chat via “One Right Here” from another crime drama Maserati: The Brothers. Andrea Bocelli and Jennifer Hudson provide the vocals and that star power has me thinking it’ll be the one nominated.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Debut (PR: 8) (E)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (E)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Elsinore (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Artificial (PR: 13) (E)
14. Digger (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Luca Guadagnino, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marion Bailey, Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 6) (-2)
9. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. REDACTED, You Can See Everything (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate O’Flynn, Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (E)
8. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guy Pearce, Ink
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+3)
7. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Elsinore (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ink
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everytime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Tangles (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hoppers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. In Waves (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. You Can See Everything (PR: 1) (E)
2. NAZA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 6) (E)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (+1)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 14th (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. You Can See Everything (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Debut (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Artificial
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wicker (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Clayface (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wildwood (PR: 7) (E)
8. You Can See Everything (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “The City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (E)
4. “One Right Here” from Maserati: The Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
5. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “The Saddest Song” from Artificial (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“By Any Means” from By Any Means
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Werwulf (PR: 9) (E)
10. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Whalefall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wildwood (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The End of Oak Street (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Disclosure Day
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
8 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, The Invite
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, You Can See Everything
3 Nominations
Digger, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Godzilla Minus Zero, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Behemoth!, Being Heumann, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Fjord, Iron Boy, Maserati: The Brothers, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Werwulf, Wicker
