Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 7th Edition

As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.

Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).

Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.

So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Post

3. Darkest Hour

4. Mudbound

5. Call Me by Your Name

6. Battle of the Sexes

7. The Shape of Water

8. Downsizing

9. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

10. Last Flag Flying

11. Phantom Thread

12. Wonder Wheel

13. mother!

14. Detroit

15. Blade Runner 2049

16. Goodbye Christopher Robin

17. Wonderstruck

18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

19. Coco

20. Get Out

21. Wind River

22. Lady Bird

23. Wonder Woman

24. Molly’s Game

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post

3. Dee Rees, Mudbound

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman

15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

4. Tom Hanks, The Post

5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

10. Matt Damon, Downsizing

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe

12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River

15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade

13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan

13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle

14. Will Poulter, Detroit

15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

2. Hong Chau, Downsizing

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post

2. Mudbound

3. Call Me by Your Name

4. Last Flag Flying

5. Molly’s Game

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. You Were Never Really Here

8. Victoria and Abdul

9. The Beguiled

10. The Disaster Artist

11. Blade Runner 2049

12. Stronger

13. Wonder

14. My Cousin Rachel

15. Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Battle of the Sexes

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonder Wheel

5. Downsizing

Other Possibilities:

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

7. Get Out

8. Phantom Thread

9. Dunkirk

10. The Big Sick

11. Lady Bird

12. The Florida Project

13. mother!

14. The Greatest Showman

15. Goodbye Christopher Robin

And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

And so it begins!

Fall season is upon us and that means my Oscar prediction posts will be ramping up on this here blog. I will be following the same formula as I did last year. Six “early” prediction posts on Picture, Director, and the four acting races. It’s my goal to have all of these posted by Monday, if not earlier.

From there, every Thursday I’ll bring you my weekly prediction posts all the way to the nominations next year. In both these initial posts covering the six categories and for the weekly posts starting next week, I’ll list my predicted nominees for Best Picture as well as 25 pictures total as possibilities. For the other races (the two Screenplay categories will be included with the weekly posts), I’ll list my five predicted nominees along with ten other ranked possibilities. From week to week, you’ll be able to track the up and down movement of my predictions, who and what have dropped out, and who and what have joined the mix.

We begin today with Best Supporting Actress and just like any category at this juncture (just as festival season is beginning), everything is up in the air. I would say Hong Chau’s work in Downsizing is pretty darn close to a sure thing with Melissa Leo’s role in Novitiate close as well (as long as her campaign doesn’t switch to Lead Actress).

As far as history with my previous year’s earliest predictions in Supporting Actress, 2014 and 2016 yielded two of the eventual five nominees while 2015 gave us three.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Melissa Leo, Novitiate

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Samantha Isler, Molly’s Game

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up shortly…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xopkvg8Xyjw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXCTMGYUg9A

Oscar Watch: Mudbound

As the Sundance Film Festival rolls along, expect at least a handful of Oscar Watch posts for 2017 as we await the 2016 Oscar nominations come Tuesday. I’ve already covered A Ghost Story with Casey Affleck. Now we move to a film said to have received a thunderous ovation over the weekend – Mudbound from director Dee Rees.

The period drama is set post World War II and focuses on the plights of two farming families (one black, one white) in Mississippi. It is based on an acclaimed 2008 novel by Hillary Jordan. The cast includes Carey Mulligan, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Clarke, Jason Mitchell, Mary J. Blige, and Jonathan Banks. Mudbound is not expected to be released wide until fall.

Based on critical and festival audience buzz over the weekend, this could have what it takes to keep momentum over the next year when it comes to Academy potential. The reaction is somewhat similar to last year’s Sundance entry The Birth of a Nation, which came out of the fest like a rocket. Of course, its Oscar chances dimmed when controversy surrounded its director and star.

If Mudbound can manage to stay relevant as many other heavy hitters make their way to screens this year, Rees could be the first African American female to receive a Directing nod. As for the actors, both Mitchell (who played Eazy-E in Straight Outta Compton) and R&B legend Blige have gotten kudos and could compete in their respective supporting races.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Top 90 Hip Hop Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 10-1

Well we started from the bottom, but now we’re here – at the top ten of my personal favorite hip hop singles of the 1990s decade! It’s been a lot of fun recounting the fabulous hits of the decade that saw hip hop move from what some thought was a fad to a phenomenon that is here to stay. If you missed any of my previous eight posts covering numbers 90-11, you can find ’em here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/23/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-90-81/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/24/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-80-71/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/25/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-70-61/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-60-51/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/27/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-50-41/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/28/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-40-31/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/30/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-30-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/31/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-20-11/

And now – the Top Ten!!

10. “My Name Is” by Eminem (1999)

Slim Shady burst onto the hip hop scene with his first amazing single with production work from Dr. Dre. He would dominate the following decade, but this is where it all started.

9. “Jump Around” by House of Pain (1992)

With production by DJ Muggs of Cypress Hill, Everlast and company had a smash hit with this party starter.

8. “O.P.P.” by Naughty by Nature (1991)

We still may not know what it really stands for, but Naughty by Nature gave us their true classic with their first single off their self-titled debut album.

7. “It Was a Good Day” by Ice Cube (1993)

Mr. Cube had a classic with this lyrically brilliant cut about a typical day in the life of a rapper.

6. “Juicy” by The Notorious B.I.G. (1994)

The debut single from his iconic Ready to Die debut album, “Juicy” announced the presence of a rap god that we lost too soon.

5. “California Love” by 2Pac featuring Dr. Dre and Roger Troutman (1996)

Much like Biggie, we also lost the unforgettable 2Pac soon. “California Love” was the smash hit first single off All Eyez on Me with production from Dre and a terrific Road Warrior inspired music video.

4. “Mama Said Knock You Out” by LL Cool J (1991)

He’d been here for years with some in the rap community doubting him, but LL Cool J gave us this hard hitting and magnificent cut that serves as his signature track.

3. “Mind Playing Tricks on Me” by Geto Boys (1991)

The highest charting single from this innovative Houston rap group, “Mind Playing Tricks on Me” is flat out brilliant.

2. “I’ll Be There for You/You’re All I Need To Get By (Razor Sharp Mix)” by Method Man featuring Mary J. Blige (1995)

A remix of a track off his Tical album, Wu-Tang member Method Man teamed with Mary J. Blige and producer RZA to come up with an unforgettable take on the Marvin Gaye/Tammi Terrell 1968 hit.

1. “‘Nuthin but a ‘G’ Thang” by Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg (1992)

The 1990s decade was in many ways dominated by Death Row and Dr. Dre. This first single off The Chronic (the album of the 1990s in hip hop) with Dre and Snoop trading rhymes earns its rightful place atop the best singles.

And there you have it, friends! My work is done here. Hopefully, at the least, this list gave you some iTunes fodder or reminded you just how great certain tracks were back in the day. Until next time…

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 10-1

This evening we arrive at the crème de la crème of 90s R&B musical greatness and the final edition of my Top 90 R&B Songs of that decade. I’ve had a tremendous amount of fun going over all these terrific songs and now we’ve arrived at the Top Ten!

To read over numbers 90-11, click on the Music tab of the blog and you’ll find them all there.

Here we go!

10. “Creep” by TLC (1994)

The lead single from TLC’s CrazySexyCool album is a Dallas Austin produced classic.

9. “All My Life” by K-Ci&JoJo (1998)

The duo who originated from the influential group Jodeci made this slow jam which stayed on the Billboard Hot 100 for 35 weeks.

8. “Remember the Time” by Michael Jackson (1992)

The omnipresent Teddy Riley, who’s produced many tracks on the list, made his best MJ contribution with this one.

7. “Hold On” by En Vogue (1990)

The girl group produced many fabulous singles, but their first is still their best.

6. “End of the Road” by Boyz II Men (1992)

The ballad of the decade spent an at the time record of 13 weeks at #1.

5. “Real Love” by Mary J. Blige (1992)

Queen Mary had her best track among many with this second single from her landmark What’s the 411? album.

4. “Pony” by Ginuwine

Ginuwine’s debut single is a masterwork from producer Timbaland. The track is still highly relevant today and most recently was featured in the hit Magic Mike.

3. “Are You That Somebody?” by Aaliyah

Timbaland strikes again and creates another classic with the late singer, which was featured on the Doctor Dolittle soundtrack.

2. “No Diggity” by Blackstreet (1996)

Teddy Riley once again as his group created this timeless classic featuring rap verses from hip hop genius Dr. Dre and Queen Pen.

1. “Poison” by Bell Biv DeVoe (1990)

Yes, it was #1 on VH1’s own list of 90s R&B grooves. They got it right. The spinoff group from New Edition created one of the catchiest and undeniable grooves in a track… ever. It still manages to turn the dance floor into a party.

And with that – my list, friends! I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I had writing it. At the least, I hope I gave you some songs for your iTunes collection. Signing off in the immortal words of BBD: “Never trust a big butt and a smile.” Until next time!

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 30-21

We are a week into my Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s and that means part seven and numbers 30-21!

Please click the Music category of the blog to review previous entries. Let’s get to it:

30. “Doo Wop” (That Thing) by Lauryn Hill (1998)

Hill left the Fugees to start a solo career and hit it big with her first album The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill and this great first single that marks her only #1 solo hit.

29. “You Make Me Wanna…” by Usher (1997)

The lead single from Usher’s My Way album is among his finest tracks with production from Jermaine Dupri.

28. “I’m So Into You” by SWV (1992)

The female trio had their first top ten hit with this terrific uptempo groove.

27. “Don’t Walk Away” by Jade (1993)

The New Jack swing club anthem gave this girl group their signature hit.

26. “Cream” by Prince (1991)

The Purple One has joked that he wrote this song in the mirror. At least I think he was joking.

**Blogger’s Note: Prince doesn’t allow his videos on YouTube

25. “Not Gon Cry” by Mary J. Blige (1996)

Ms. Mary’s ballad from the Waiting to Exhale soundtrack is among her top career highlights.

24. “Rub You the Right Way” by Johnny Gill (1990)

The New Edition singer had the biggest hit of his solo career with this banger from producers Jam and Lewis.

23. “Too Close” by Next (1997)

The male trio had a monster hit on their hands with its infectious beat and highly suggestive lyrical content.

22. “I Wanna Sex You Up” by Color Me Badd (1991)

The group’s biggest hit came from the New Jack City soundtrack and has certainly stood the test of time.

21. “Fantasy” by Mariah Carey (1995)

Carey’s lead single from her Daydream album is a classic among her staple of #1 hits. It also has an awesome Puff Daddy remix featuring Ol’ Dirty Bastard.

Tomorrow – we’ll get into the Top 20!

Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 80-71

We have arrived at Day 2 of my list of personal Top 90 R&B Songs of the 1990s and this means numbers 80-71 coming your way. In case you missed Part 1, you can find it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/03/top-90-rb-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-90-81/

Let’s go right to it:

80. “Set Adrift on Memory Bliss” by PM Dawn (1991)

The soul duo had their largest hit with this jam.

79. “I’m Going Down” by Mary J. Blige (1994)

Ms. Blige had a soulful hit with this cover of the Rose Royce 1970s song.

78. “Water Runs Dry” by Boyz II Men (1995)

The Boyz make their first appearance on the list with Babyface produced slow track.

77. “100% Pure Love” by Crystal Waters (1994)

Crystal Waters techno/R&B blend hit #1 on the dance chart.

76. “Keep On Walkin” by CeCe Peniston (1992)

CeCe has a number of hits and her signature song is considered “Finally”, but this one has always been my persona favorite.

75. “I Have Nothing” by Whitney Houston (1993)

Ms. Whitney makes her first list appearance with this David Foster produced ballad from The Bodyguard.

74. “Candy Rain” by Soul for Real (1994)

The boy band hit #1 on the R&B singles chart with this track produced by Poke&Tone and Heavy D.

73. “Tell Me” by Groove Theory (1995)

This male/female duo had their biggest hit with this jam.

72. “One In a Million” by Aaliyah (1996)

The late great singer makes her debut on here with the title track from her critically acclaimed second album which featured the beginning of her groundbreaking collaborations with Timbaland.

71. “The Best Things In Life are Free” by Luther Vandross and Janet Jackson

Featured on the soundtrack to the Damon Wayans comedy Mo’ Money, the Jam&Lewis produced track also features a rap cameo from Bell Biv Devoe.

And that’s all for today, my friends! Back again tomorrow with numbers 70-61!

Black Nativity Box Office Prediction

Two weekends ago, African American audiences catapulted The Best Man Holiday to an astonishing $30 million opening weekend. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, Fox Searchlight is hoping a similar result greets Black Nativity.

The musical drama features an all-star cast that includes Forest Whitaker, Jennifer Hudson, Angela Bassett, Tyrese Gibson, Mary J. Blige, and rapper Nas. The Christmas themed flick may well connect with its intended audience. While I don’t see it reaching Best Man Holiday numbers (even over the five-day Thanksgiving frame), I do see it posting a very solid opening that should make the studio quite happy.

Black Nativity opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $26.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)