Box Office Predictions: April 11-13

A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

3. Draft Day

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oculus

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Noah

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.

In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.

That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!

Box Office Predictions: April 4-6

There’s only one new movie opening this weekend and that’s no accident because it’s a massive one – Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 Marvel original. Steve Rogers and company should be poised to have the biggest opening of the year so far by a wide margin. You can read my detailed post predicting its debut here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/30/captain-america-the-winter-soldier-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, last weekend’s champ Noah got off to a strong start. However, its weak C Cinemascore grade indicates audiences weren’t exactly (ahem) swept away by it and it could suffer a precipitous decline in its sophomore frame. In its third weekend, Divergent is likely to lose around half it audience as it did in week two. Numbers 4-6 should be a close contest between Muppets Most Wanted, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

And with that – we’ll do top 6 predictions for this weekend:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $86.3 million

2. Noah

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

6. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

As mentioned before, Darren Aronofsky’s controversial Biblical epic Noah easily took the top spot with $43.7 million, surging a bit ahead of my $39.7M forecast. With Son of God and God’s Not Dead all posting big results, you can count on plenty of other Bible themed pictures over the next couple of years or so. Divergent held up slightly better than my prognosis in its second weekend with $25.6 million compared to my $23M estimate. Muppets Most Wanted also displayed a better hold the second time around than I figured with $11.2 million (my prediction: $9.6M). I incorrectly had Mr. Peabody & Sherman outside the top six in its fourth weekend but it held strong with $9 million. The aforementioned God’s Not Dead was fifth with $8.7 million – right above my $7.9M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel expanded its theater count and took sixth with $8.5 million, right on target with my $8.6M prediction.

Finally, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Sabotage suffered a disastrous debut with an awful $5.2 million for seventh place. I predicted $8.4M. Clearly Ah-nuld has completely lost his luster with moviegoers and this represents his third bomb in a row after The Last Stand and Escape Plan.

That’s all for now, folks!

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Studios gravy train keeps on rolling this Friday with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 original and most importantly – the continuation of The Avengers saga that broke box office records in 2012. Chris Evans returns as the title character alongside Scarlett Johannson as Black Widow and Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury with Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Shaw, and Robert Redford (!) joining the regulars.

Buzz on The Winter Soldier is red hot and it stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Marvel films have opened at significant bumps following The Avengers and the evidence is clear. The pre-Avengers sequel Iron Man 2 opened to $128 million while the post-Avengers entry Iron Man 3 premiered to $174 million. The pre-Avengers original Thor debuted to $65 million while its post-Avengers follow-up Thor: The Dark World came in at $85 million. Like the first Thor, the original Captain America opened at $65 million.

So it stands to reason that the sequel would make the $85 million that the second Thor achieved, right? Well… yeah, pretty much! An opening in that range seems like a safe bet. It could overachieve and approach $100 million, but I’m going by the numbers we have on file and predicting it’ll just outpace the Thor sequel.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opening weekend prediction: $86.3 million

This Day in Movie History: December 28

Twelve years ago today in Movie History was the release of Black Hawk Down for its Oscar qualifying run. Ridley Scott’s true life tale of the Battle of Mogadishu starred Josh Hartnett, Eric Bana, Tom Sizemore, Sam Shephard, and Ewan McGregor. It won Academy Awards for Sound and Editing and Scott was nominated for his direction, while the film itself did not receive a nod. Down was a box office success with $108 million domestic, providing Scott with his third $100M+ grosser in less than two years with Gladiator and Hannibal having been released prior.

As for birthdays, Denzel Washington is 59 today. He is an Oscar winner for 2001’s Training Day in the lead category and won Supporting Actor in 1989 for Glory. Other Academy Award nominations: Cry Freedom, Malcolm X, The Hurricane, and Flight. Beyond his nominated performances, he’s been one of the most consistent actors over the past 25 years with box office hits that include Philadelphia, The Pelican Brief, Crimson Tide, Remember the Titans, American Gangster, and Unstoppable.

He may only be known for cameos in films, but you could certainly argue that no one has been more important in the world of film over the past decade as Stan Lee. He turns 91 today. Lee is the creator of many comic books that have been adapted into hugely grossing Marvel adaptations, including Spider-Man, the Hulk, the Fantastic Four, X-Men, Iron Man, Thor, The Avengers, Captain America, and Daredevil. He has had cameos in nearly 20 of those pictures based on his works.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two birthdays boys:

Denzel Washington was in Inside Man with Willem Dafoe

Willem Dafoe was in Spider-Man with Stan Lee

And that’s today – December 28 – in Movie History!

Box Office Predictions: December 6-8

The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/01/out-of-the-furnace-box-office-prediction/

Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.

Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.

On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.

Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)

3. Out of the Furnance

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Box Office Predictions: November 15-17

Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/10/the-best-man-holiday-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

Thor: The Dark World Box Office Prediction

The second weekend of November should bring huge results as an Avenger returns in Thor: The Dark World, the sequel to the 2011 hit. Chris Hemsworth is back as the title character along with returnees Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, Rene Russo, and, of course, fan favorite Tom Hiddleston as villainous Loki. TV vet Alan Taylor takes over directing duties from Kenneth Branagh, who moved on to film Jack Ryan.

The original debuted to a strong $65.7 million two and a half years ago, but expectations are understandably higher this time around. Summer 2012 brought us a little movie called The Avengers that broke box office records and increased Thor’s visibility to an even wider audience. The question is: just how high can this pic open?

Conventional estimates are forecasting above $75 million and I would envision Thor easily grabbing that number. A debut in the mid-80s seems most likely though it may land a little lower and (more likely) around $90 million. Reviews have been pretty solid – not that it matters a whole lot. Thor: The Dark World is destined to be a gigantic hit and propel momentum for the next Avengers themed pic coming next spring, the Captain America sequel.

Thor: The Dark World opening weekend prediction: $85.6 million

For my About Time prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Iron Man 3 Movie Review

Iron Man 3 is essentially competing against two expectations from previous pictures. First, the general feeling (one I agree with) is that Iron Man 2 was a bit of a letdown. Second, the general feeling (which I also adhere to) is that last summer’s The Avengers was pretty frickin’ awesome.

So where does Tony Stark/Iron Man go from here? In Iron Man 3, the character goes into the hands of director/co-writer Shane Black. Jon Favreau directed the first two installments and he reprises his role as Tony’s former bodyguard Happy. But it’s Black who now inherits the franchise. For those who don’t know, Black is best known as the screenwriter of action extravaganzas such as Lethal Weapon and The Last Boy Scout. In 2005, he made his directorial debut with Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, a terrific action/comedy that starred… Robert Downey Jr.!

Shane Black’s contributions give Iron Man 3 a different feel than what we’ve seen previously. It’s darker in tone yet it also has a comedy spirit at times that works well. Black is a great writer and his work here shines. We also delve a bit deeper into Stark as a person. A lot of the action the character is involved in this time around is accomplished without Tony wearing the Iron Man suit. Furthermore, Gwyneth Paltow’s character Pepper is given more to do – she even gets to don the suit!

While Mickey Rourke ended up being a fairly blah villain in the second flick, this time around we have Sir Ben Kingsley as evil terrorist The Mandarin. It’s pretty much impossible to describe Kinglsey’s character without revealing major spoilers. I will say this: Kingsley is fantastic in the role and he will be the character you’ll probably talk about the most. Guy Pearce gives an effective performance as another villain… again, can’t talk too much about him due to spoilers.

I won’t get into the plot details of Iron Man 3 – I mean, you’re gonna see it anyway if you haven’t already. Bottom line: Iron Man 3 is not quite on the level of the first for me, but it’s a definite improvement over #2. Downey is brilliant as always in the title role and I particularly enjoyed his rapport with Harley (Ty Simpkins), a kid who Tony befriends.

The film doesn’t attempt to outdo the grandeur of The Avengers and that’s just fine. It feels like a smaller film – at least small compared to Avengers. It may not rank at the very top of the best superhero movies, but Iron Man 3 is well worth seeing and kicks off summer 2013 in good manner.

Iron Man 3 is solid enough that I certainly hope Downey doesn’t abandon the role. My guess is that he won’t. And I also hope Shane Black returns for a fourth installment. His presence is a welcome addition to the Marvel world.

*** (out of four)

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this: