Doctor Strange Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s mega billion dollar alliance with Disney rolls along as Doctor Strange opens in theaters next weekend. Based on the character created by Steve Ditko over a half century ago, this is the 14th entry in the MCU that began with Iron Man in 2008.

And that first Tony Stark pic over eight years ago is the film many critics are comparing the Doctor to. Benedict Cumberbatch is the title character with a stellar supporting cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rachel McAdams, Tilda Swinton, Benedict Wong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Benjamin Bratt, and Mads Mikkelsen. Scott Derrickson (most known for horror flicks such as The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister) directs. Advance word of mouth for the reported $165 million has been quite encouraging, with reviewers praising Cumberbatch’s performance, the striking visuals, and an origin story said to be satisfying in the way that Iron Man’s was. It stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is only the second MCU feature to open in the autumn season. 2013’s sequel Thor: The Dark World premiered to $85.7 million in early November. That’s probably the range that Strange is looking to debut at, but I’m not sure it’ll quite get there. I certainly don’t see it reaching the $94 million accomplished by Star Lord and his Guardians of the Galaxy or the $98 million that Robert Downey Jr.’s signature character got the first time out of the gate. Yet I see it outpacing the $65 million that Thor opened to in his first solo saga and $57 million from Ant-Man in summer 2015. The buzz for this one seems stronger.

Ultimately, I think this manages a mid to high 70s opening weekend. Low 80s is reachable. Regardless, this should be a new franchise for the Mouse Factory’s comic book division.

Doctor Strange opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million

For my Trolls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/trolls-box-office-prediction/

For my Hacksaw Ridge prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/hacksaw-ridge-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Doctor Strange

A movie from the Marvel Cinematic Universe getting its own Oscar Watch post, you say? Yes indeed as Doctor Strange has screened for critics and the advance word of mouth is quite encouraging. The superhero tale with Benedict Cumberbatch stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

While reviews have been positive and the box office should be potent when it debuts November 4, I’m not getting carried away enough to proclaim it’ll play in Best Picture. Let’s be real: if The Dark Knight couldn’t land a nod, it’s highly doubtful this would. Yet Strange has established itself in the Visual Effects race based on the buzz. Critics have gone out their way to praise the apparently Inception like special effects.

Before the reviews, Strange was a question mark as to whether it’d get recognized in that category. Now it looks like it should join The Jungle Book as a sure thing. There’s plenty of other contenders making their way to screens in the next two months plus: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Passengers, and A Monster Calls. There’s also Marvel’s other entry this year, Captain America: Civil War, which should find itself in the mix.

Today’s prognosis on the Doctor, though, proves room may be needed for it in this potentially crowded race.

Captain America: Civil War Movie Review

The Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to expand in often thrilling and impressive ways in Captain America: Civil War, which is by all intents and purposes a third Avengers pic where Hulk and Thor are apparently on a well-deserved vacation. It walks the tightrope of introducing new characters and finding new dynamics for the old ones without seeming gimmicky or overloading the audience with all its activity. To that end, director Joel and Anthony Russo are to be commended for mostly succeeding in this latest effort where our heroes are often unmasked and sometimes emasculated.

Civil War presents a chasm in the MCU that centers on Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) aka The Winter Solider from this trilogy’s slightly better second movie. His history with Captain America (Chris Evans) garners understandable sympathy from our title character. That isn’t the case with Tony Stark/Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) when it appears Bucky may be responsible for an attack on the United Nations.

There’s also the question of whether The Avengers actions across the globe are worth the collateral damage that sometimes comes with it. The U.S. government proposes to put some serious checks on their powers. Tony agrees. Cap does not. And the rest of the crew (minus Hulk/Thor sipping Mai tai’s somewhere) must choose which side to join. This include Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye (who comes out retirement from his boring home life Age of Ultron subplot), Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, and Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch. We also have Paul Rudd in the mix less than a year after his debut in Ant-Man, which was the other underwhelming MCU summer 2015 experience (along with Ultron). And then there’s the two newbies introduced who will soon have their own stand-alone features: Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man. Spidey is good for some solid one-liners and I enjoyed Holland’s take on Peter Parker. This budding franchise should hopefully eclipse what we saw the last time around with Andrew Garfield and company. That said, I actually found Black Panther’s plot line to be a bit more interesting here and I equally anticipate that solo pic.

Civil War also continues the tradition of rather forgettable central villains, with the exception of Tom Hiddleston’s Loki. Here it’s Daniel Bruhl as Zemo, whose motives are murky for most of the running time and who stands as just another baddie in a world where the heroes are the focal point. This entry isn’t really about a main villain, however. Rather it’s about deciding if you’re on Team Cap or Team Iron Man and the screenplay is smartly written enough that the answer isn’t automatic.

The MCU continues to build on itself and this one does so in the most entertaining way since Winter Soldier. By the time we get to the final Avengers pictures, Hulk and Thor will return. Guardians of Galaxies will be in the mix. And with the Mouse Factory behind this with their extensive array of characters, who knows who else we shall see? Will Rey and Finn cross star systems to appear? Which team will Mowgli align with? Will Kermit and Miss Piggy agree to follow Cap or Tony or split? As long as it’s satisfying like Civil War, I’m still curious to find out.

*** (out of four)

X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction

The Mutants are back in the multiplex as X-Men: Apocalypse hits screens this Memorial Day weekend. Bryan Singer (who directed the first two well-regarded entries in the original trilogy and 2014’s Days of Future Past) is back behind the camera with franchise regulars James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Nicholas Hoult, and Rose Byrne returning, in addition to Oscar Isaac and Olivia Munn.

The pic is likely to rule the holiday weekend, but it is worth noting that competition is fiercer than two years ago when Future Past debuted on the same weekend. In 2014, the only other newcomer was the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore dud Blended. This time around, it’s Alice Through the Looking Glass, another high-profile sequel.

This is the 8th X-Men franchise flick in the 21st century (counting the two stand-alone Wolverine features) and the best opening so far is ironically 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand. Despite being generally regarded as the worst of the X series, it premiered to $102 million over that year’s Memorial Day Weekend from Friday to Sunday with $122 million for the four-day holiday frame. Days of Future Past was second with a $90 million Friday to Sunday and $110 million Friday to Monday.

Apocalypse would love to match Last Stand‘s debut or exceed it and there’s another common bond between them. This is the third movie in the current trilogy that began with 2011’s X-Men: First Class and like Stand, it’s receiving the weakest reviews. First Class earned an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score. Future Past improved slightly with 91%. Apocalypse currently sits at just 53%. The somewhat negative word of mouth and more significant competition could cause this to gross under what Past managed. However, I don’t think it’ll be much under.

I look for Apocalypse to post a low to mid-80s start for the traditional three-day with a gross just eclipsing the century mark for the holiday weekend.

X-Men: Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Alice Through the Looking Glass prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/alice-through-the-looking-glass-box-office-prediction/

Captain America: Civil War Box Office Prediction

Summer 2016 kicks off in grand Disney/Marvel fashion when Captain America: Civil War debuts next Friday. It is the first weekend of May’s only wide release, as no other studio would dare try counter programming against this surefire juggernaut. This is the third entry in the Captain America franchise, but it is essentially a third Avengers feature as Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch, and the debuts of Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man all join Chris Evans’ Cap for this extravaganza. Sebastian Shaw, William Hurt, and Daniel Bruhl also appear. Essentially, only Thor and Hulk are missing here.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has been a multi-billion dollar bonanza for Disney and Marvel Studios. This 13th picture in the MCU has been greeted with terrific buzz and trailers and its critical response stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics have gone as far to call it the best MCU movie thus far and this has led to expectations for its opening being understandably sky-high.

How high are we talking? Civil War seems primed to have at least the fifth largest domestic debut of all time. To do so, it would need to top Iron Man 3 and its $174 million opening and $175M seems to be on the lower end of expectations. The current #4 record belongs to summer 2015’s first flick, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which made $191 million. #3 is the original Avengers at $207 million with last summer’s Jurassic World second at $208 million.

The only record I don’t see this competing for is the big daddy – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $247 million in December. I believe Civil War, with buzz hotter than Ultron, will manage have a larger start and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it does indeed top $200 million. I’m going to peg it at just below what 2012’s Avengers accomplished to make it the second largest MCU debut and fourth highest all-time opening.

Captain America: Civil War opening weekend prediction: $205.6 million

Deadpool Movie Review

I love it when a plan comes together and Ryan Reynolds’ plan to bring a proper version of Deadpool to moviegoers pans out in a big and raunchy way. It marks the actor’s fourth appearance in a comic book based picture after Blade: Trinity, Green Lantern, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, where he also played Mr. Pool. Those entries weren’t too memorable. The fourth time turns out to be the charm.

What sets Deadpool apart from Spideys and Avengers and Caped Crusaders is the level of R rated debauchery, amped up violence, and profanity not often found in the Marvel or DC universes. Yes, we see it in Iron Man and the Guardians of the Galaxy, but not quite like this. The alter ego here is Wade Wilson, a former special forces operative who makes his dough as a mercenary. He doesn’t see himself as a good guy and he isn’t, though most of the jobs he takes have whiffs of virtue. Early on, Wade fools around and falls in love with escort Vanessa (Morena Baccarin) and life is going well until a dire cancer diagnosis. Choosing to undergo experimental treatment for his illness, he leaves his girl and soon figures out that he’s been duped and is subjected to torturous experiments by a shadowy group led by British mutant Ajax (Ed Skrein). It leaves our antihero badly deformed and indestructible, hence the need for his superhero costume. Additionally, it leaves him pining for sweet and bloody revenge. Deadpool is soon joined in his journey by two X-Men – Colussus (Stefan Kapicic) and the entertaingly named Negasonic Teenage Warhead (Brianna Hildebrand).

Along the way, Reynolds frequently breaks the fourth wall and talks to us in the audience. The screenplay fluctuates between his origin story and the here and now. It is a pic with its wicked tongue planted in its cheek. Much of what comes out of his mouth is hilarious and un-PC in a genre where a sense of sameness (see Avengers: Age of Ultron) has creeped in. Even the lead performer’s previous failures in spandex are slyly addressed. From the 80s inspired synth score coupled with Wham! and Salt n Pepa to a sex scene montage that shows our lead lovers freaky holiday progression, Deadpool isn’t afraid to be way out there. The gamble usually pays off.

Truth be told, Skrein’s villain and sidekick (Gina Carano) are forgettable. And there is the occasional joke that falls flat. Most, however, land. Reynolds has been working hard to get this character his own explicit feature for some time and it’s clear that he and screenwriters Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick and first time director Tim Miller have their hearts in the proceedings. For an actor whose performances are a mixed bag, Reynolds’ sarcastic wit is absolutely perfect for this part, similar to what we’ve seen with Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Pratt in their franchises.

Deadpool shakes up the comic book worlds we are now accustomed to seeing every three months or so and gives Mr. Reynolds some nice retribution on screen and in a genre where his previous efforts weren’t too fun. This one is tremendous fun.

***1/2 (out of four)

Deadpool Box Office Prediction

Ryan Reynolds has appeared in two superhero flicks before and neither (2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine and 2011’s Green Lantern) are exactly considered genre classics, to be kind. However, the times could be a-changin’ as Deadpool hits theaters next weekend amidst a wave of positive buzz.

Based on the Marvel Comics character, Reynolds plays the title role with Morena Baccarin, Ed Skrein, T.J. Miller, and Gina Carano in the supporting cast with first timer Tim Miller directing. Deadpool has been graced with some terrific trailers (especially the red band ones) that have assisted in generating big audience interest. In case you couldn’t tell from the red band mention, Deadpool is the rare hard R rated comic book pic. One could say that could limit its audience (and this certainly has no shot of achieving the kind of grosses that Avengers or Batman manage), but this should at least meet or very likely exceed expectations.

Somewhat ironically, this may open right in the $53 million range of Reynolds’ critically derided Green Lantern, which then sputtered to a $116M overall take. The difference? That gross for Lantern was disappointing, but it would be just fine for Deadpool. I’ll predict this manages to get a bit beyond that.

Deadpool opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million

**Please note this gross is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, not the full President’s Day Weekend.

For my Zoolander No. 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

For my How to Be Single prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

Ant-Man Movie Review

Since 2008, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has continually exceeded expectations with the product they’ve put out. This was true no more so than in 2008 with the first entry Iron Man, which turned a superhero considered on the B list to A level material. The casting of one Robert Downey Jr. certainly helped. It held true in 2014 when Guardians of the Galaxy, considered the studio’s biggest risk to date, was a comedically charged thrill ride that turned Chris Pratt into a superstar.

We arrive at Ant-Man, directed by Peyton Reed, with some of the same skepticism that surrounded those pictures. This time expectations are not necessarily exceeded. They are merely mostly met and the choice to cast the supremely talented Paul Rudd in the title role doesn’t pay off as much as hoped for.

Rudd is Scott Lang, an expert burglar and safecracker who just got out of prison for some Robin Hood like corporate thefts. His felon status can’t get him a steady job and this estranges him from his beloved little daughter. He reluctantly accepts a theft job “one last time” but all it yields is a strange looking outfit that he believes to be motorcycle gear. It turns out the suit belongs to former S.H.I.E.L.D. scientist Hank Pym (Michael Douglas), who purposely had him lift it. Scott learns the suit is that of the Ant-Man and it has the ability to shrink him to a tiny size. This breakthrough technology was discovered by Pym, who has kept it secret for many years because of the potential danger it could wreak. Pym’s daughter Hope (Evangeline Lilly) works at Pym’s old company along with his former colleague Cross (Corey Stoll). It’s Cross who wishes to use the scientific breakthrough for nefarious warfare purposes and Pym enlists Scott (someone expendable with nothing to lose) to make sure he can’t.

This entails the Ant-Man to learn how to be the Ant-Man and that means getting to work with the actual insects who become his team. It means a number of super cool visual effects as he shrinks to minuscule size. A bathtub being drawn is The Perfect Storm to our hero. And as we also see in the MCU now, they are references to what’s occurred in other films and we get some Avengers exposure, however limited.

As with Iron Man and Thor and Captain America and the Guardians of Marvel’s past, this is the obligatory and needed origin story. The doubts that were expressed upon the film’s announcement centered on whether Ant-Man was a strong enough character to base a movie and hoped for franchise on. I can say the jury, for me, is still deliberating.

Ant-Man is not a straight out comedy yet dabbles into that genre in the same manner Guardians did. The latter did it better. Rudd is a gifted comedic and dramatic performer as we’ve seen time and again yet he never quite makes the instantly gratifying impression that Downey’s Tony Stark or Pratt’s Star Lord did. Douglas seems to be the one actually having the most fun. Lilly isn’t given a whole lot to work with other than her daddy/daughter issues with Pym. Stoll is a serviceable villain at best. Scott’s team of thieving buddies that include Michael Pena and T.I. are given a couple humorous bits.

The whole affair seems to pick up steam in the third act, especially with a delightfully amusing climactic train sequence. Ant-Man is not on the grand scale of what we typically expect from the MCU and that’s ok. Often, however, it can mean its thrills feel minimized. One also wonders how interesting this material may have been had its original director, the highly creative Edgar Wright, not dropped out due to reported creative differences. Having said that, here’s to hoping this sometimes workmanlike production will improve with its sequel like the Captain America and Thor franchises did.

**1/2 (out of four)

Avengers: Age of Ultron Movie Review

Avengers: Age of Ultron moves the Marvel Cinematic Universe onwards while answering the questions we’ve been pondering for years. How is the romantic relationship going between Hulk and Black Widow? What’s going on with Hawkeye’s wife and children out on their family farm?

Wait, what?

These two out of nowhere subplots are emblematic of a pervasive problem with the sequel to the 2012 mega blockbuster. When Joss Whedon made the original three years ago, it was hard to imagine him combining Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Black Widow and Hawkeye into a cohesive and satisfactory experience. Did he ever though and it resulted in one of the greatest superhero tales to reach the screen. With Ultron, many of the fears that were assuaged the first time are present. Here, the struggle is real and Whedon can’t manage to recapture the magic the second time around.

The pic dives headfirst into Avengers action in Eastern Europe with our protagonists obtaining Loki’s old scepter and Tony Stark (Robert Downey Jr.) discovering its artificial intelligence capabilities. This results in the creation of Ultron (voiced by James Spader), a robotic monster hell bent on ending the world… you know, like all MCU villains. We’re also introduced to Quicksilver (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) and Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), characters played by different actors in last year’s in X-Men: Days of Future Past. Incidentally, Quicksilver was used much more effectively in the latter.

Of course, we have most of the Marvel crew back. Scarlett Johannson’s Black Widow, who’s turned into one of the more interesting characters even though her aforementioned romance with Dr. Bruce Banner aka Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) seems to be a forced concoction to earn them more screen time. Same goes for Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, who isn’t one of the more interesting players and his previously unseen family history doesn’t help. And there’s Chris Hemsworth’s Thor and Chris Evans’s Captain America, both coming off sequels that improved upon their predecessors. Not the case here. Samuel L. Jackson’s Nick Fury, Don Cheadle’s War Machine and Anthony Mackie’s Falcon appear in more limited fashion. The girlfriends of Iron Man and Thor (Oscar winners Gwyneth Paltrow and Natalie Portman, respectively) are missing.

Where Ultron serviceably succeeds is its action sequences, including a humdinger battle between Hulk and Iron Man. The Marvel team obviously know how to make these glorious battle sequences and they acquit themselves fine here, though nothing matches the brilliance of the 2012 edition’s breathtaking climactic sequence. The issues I had are several and not just the needless subplots. Ultron is not an especially compelling villain. Many of the humorous quips fall flatter than normal. Even Downey Jr. (truly an example of the perfect actor in the perfect role) isn’t as fun this time around.

In a way, I found Age of Ultron comparable to the third Hunger Games entry, Mockingjay – Part 1. It’s necessary to view it so we can move on to the rest. With the MCU, that includes two more Avengers pics and forthcoming Thor and Captain America threequels. Ultron is “must see” viewing for that reason and that reason alone. Yet I hope what comes next elevates beyond the material we are given this time.

**1/2 (out of four)

Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction

Chronicle director Josh Trank spearheads 20th Century Fox’s reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, some eight years after the last entry in the series. The big question is: how much of a clamoring is there for these heroes return to the silver screen?

Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara and Jamie Bell headline the cast in this reported $122 million tentpole that marks the third and final superhero flick of the summer, after Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron and Ant-Man. Fantastic Four has no hope of reaching Ultron numbers and may be lucky to even be in Ant-Man’s territory.

2005’s original Fantastic Four debuted to $56 million on its way to a $154 million domestic gross while its 2007 sequel Rise of the Silver Surfer opened slightly higher with $58 million. The follow-up did end up earning less overall with $134 million. Both premieres are right in line with Ant-Man’s $57 million first take some three weeks ago.

While any major league comic book film should have no problem making over $40 million out of the gate, this one’s ceiling may not be significantly higher. I’m not convinced audiences are overly eager for this series to come back and early word of mouth has been mixed, at best. I don’t see this making what Ant-Man or the first two Four pics made and a debut in the high 40s seems likely.

Fantastic Four opening weekend prediction: $47.7 million