Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.
Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.
Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. Thatcould mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $92.4 million
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. The Garfield Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. IF
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. The Watchers
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (June 7-9)
Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.
The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.
IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.
The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.
Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.
Sony Pictures and theater owners are desperately looking for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die to inject some life into the box office this weekend. We also have The Watchers, the horror debut from Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
While I don’t have Ride revving up to the same numbers that predecessor Bad Boys for Life managed in January 2020, my mid to high 40s projection puts it in line with its somewhat muted expectations.
As I’ve been mentioning frequently in 2024, scary movies have struggled even managing $10M+ as of late for their starts. I do believe The Watchers gets there, but not by a lot for a so-so second place showing.
After rising to #1 (more on that below), The Garfield Movie should drop to third while IF appears poised for a one spot slide to fourth. That’s because Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is bound to see a larger percentage decline. It may even fall from second to sixth depending on how Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes holds up.
And with that, my top 6 take on the frame ahead:
1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $47.3 million
2. The Watchers
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. The Garfield Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. IF
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (May 31-June 2)
The woes continued at multiplexes with no major new releases even sniffing $5 million. It’s a bit of a cinematic litter box right now and The Garfield Movie elevated to first with $14 million. That’s ahead of my $12 million projection for its sophomore outing as it’s up to $51 million.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted 59%, as I figured, to second with $10.7 million. That’s on target with my $11.3 million take as the prequel has amassed a mere $49 million in its two weeks.
IF held up nicely in third with $10.5 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week gross of $80 million.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $8.9 million, in range with my $8.5 million call. After four weeks, the sequel is perched at $140 million.
I incorrectly didn’t have estimates for The Fall Guy or The Strangers: Chapter 1. The former was fifth with $4.1 million for $80 million after five frames while the latter took in $3.7 million in sixth for $28 million after three weeks.
That’s because I had Japan’s animated Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle in fifth place, but it was seventh with $3.6 million. I was darn close for the forecast with $3.9 million.
Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.
And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.
So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).
Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.
I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million
As I do every summer on the blog, I am looking back at the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago and recounting the top ten hits, other notable pics, and some misfires. A week ago, I covered the summer of 1990 (when we all were “ghosted”). If you missed it, you can peruse it here:
Today brings us to the dawn of the new century. What struck me is that there weren’t a whole lot of outright flops, but the ones that were are rather significant bombs. Let’s take a trip down memory lane of 2000 and were we not entertained?!?!
10. The Patriot
Domestic Gross: $113 million
Mel Gibson and Heath Ledger teamed up with disaster flick specialist Roland Emmerich for this Revolutionary War era drama that managed to just achieve blockbuster status and barely top its reported $110 million budget stateside.
9. Big Momma’s House
Domestic Gross: $117 million
Negative reviews couldn’t prevent this Martin Lawrence comedy from nearly quadrupling its $30 million budget and spawning two eventual sequels. 30% also happens to be its Rotten Tomatoes score.
8. Nutty Professor II: The Klumps
Domestic Gross: $123 million
Eddie Murphy’s sequel to his 1996 hit certainly didn’t get the reviews of its predecessor, but it fell only $5 million short of the domestic gross of part 1 and introduced superstar Janet Jackson as his new love interest. Part 2 also greatly expanded Eddie’s work as other members of the Klump brood. As you can see from numbers 8 and 9, it was a big summer for comedians in fat suits.
7. Dinosaur
Domestic Gross: $137 million
The prehistoric Disney animated adventure is not one of their most talked about titles in recent decades, but it was still a profitable venture that grossed nearly $350 million worldwide.
6. What Lies Beneath
Domestic Gross: $155 million
Despite mixed reviews, Robert Zemeckis’s Hitchcockian thriller starring Harrison Ford and Michelle Pfeiffer landed big with audiences. Its filming schedule is a memorable one. Zemeckis was shooting Cast Away with Tom Hanks and there was a long break in filming so its star could shed weight and grow his long beard. It was enough time for the director to fit in Beneath.
5. Scary Movie
Domestic Gross: $157 million
The summer’s biggest comedy was a Scream spoof from filmmaker Keenan Ivory Wayans. Shot for less than $20 million, it spawned four sequels and became its own franchise.
4. X-Men
Domestic Gross: $157 million
I recently wrote about the 20th anniversary of X-Men here:
That post talks about its significant impact on the comic book genre that has dominated the 21st century.
3. The Perfect Storm
Domestic Gross: $182 million
Wolfgang Peterson’s fact based disaster drama with George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg was not much of a hit with critics, but crowds were swept up in the waves.
2. Gladiator
Domestic Gross: $187 million
Ridley Scott’s historical action drama kicked off summer 2000 and made a global superstar out of Russell Crowe and provided a juicy supporting part for Joaquin Phoenix. The film became an Oscar darling – winning Best Picture and Crowe taking Best Actor. This is the rare summer popcorn pic that achieved awards glory.
1. Mission: Impossible 2
Domestic Gross: $215 million
This sequel cruised to the top spot of earners for the season. Now that there’s been six editions in the franchise, this John Woo directed experience is generally (and rightfully) considered the weakest of the bunch. Yet that didn’t prevent huge grosses.
And now for some other notable features:
Chicken Run
Domestic Gross: $106 million
This still stands as the highest grossing stop-motion animated feature of all time and it doubled its budget domestically. A sequel is in development, but it was recently announced that lead voice Mel Gibson will not be part of the proceedings.
Gone in 60 Seconds
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Despite poor reviews, Nicolas Cage and Angelina Jolie’s remake of the 1970s heist pic still zoomed (barely) past $100 million and was a solid performer overseas.
Me, Myself & Irene
Domestic Gross: $90 million
The Farrelly Brothers reunited with their Dumb and Dumber star Jim Carrey for this comedy that earned mixed reaction. This was nowhere near the hit that the brothers had two years earlier with their runaway success There’s Something About Mary, but it still made money.
Space Cowboys
Domestic Gross: $90 million
Clint Eastwood guided this “old guys in space” tale alongside Tommy Lee Jones to a very respectable gross and decent critical reaction.
Hollow Man
Domestic Gross: $73 million
Paul Verhoeven’s take on the H.G. Wells novel starred Kevin Bacon and earned a Visual Effects Oscar nomination (losing to Gladiator). While it didn’t make its budget back stateside, it ended up doubling its price tag when factoring in foreign markets. A direct to video sequel followed.
Shaft
Domestic Gross: $70 million
Samuel L. Jackson took over the iconic private dick role from Richard Roundtree (who costarred here) in this sequel from the late John Singleton. Christian Bale memorably plays a villain here. Another sequel followed in 2019 and it was an outright flop.
Bring It On
Domestic Gross: $68 million
Made for only $11 million, this teen cheerleading comedy was an unexpected hit that gave Kirsten Dunst and Gabrielle Union a boost in their careers. Five direct to video sequels followed as well as a stage musical.
The Cell
Domestic Gross: $61 million
Despite so-so reviews, this twisty supernatural thriller with Jennifer Lopez easily topped its $33 million budget. It has continued to have ardent admirers including the late Roger Ebert, who awarded it four stars.
Coyote Ugly
Domestic Gross: $60 million
This tale about saloon life with Piper Perabo and John Goodman managed to take in over $100 million worldwide against a $45 million budget and has become a cult favorite since.
The Original Kings of Comedy
Domestic Gross: $38 million
A stand-up comedy pic grossing this much in theaters is notable. Spike Lee directed Bernie Mac, Steve Harvey, D.L. Hughley, and Cedric the Entertainer and audiences turned out.
As I mentioned, the total bombs aren’t plentiful here. However, they’re notable:
The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle
Domestic Gross: $26 million
A pet project of Robert De Niro, this loose take on the 1960s animated series grossed a third of its budget domestically and was quickly forgotten.
Titan A.E.
Domestic Gross: $22 million
20th Century Fox had a big failure here at the start of the 21st century with this animated sci-fi tale with Matt Damon as a leading voice. The price tag was reportedly around $90 million and it made just $36 million worldwide.
Battlefield Earth
Domestic Gross: $21 million
Based on a work from Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard, audiences and critics savaged this sci-fi tale with John Travolta. It won a then record 7 Golden Raspberry Awards and was mocked relentlessly for its poor quality.
And that does it, folks! I’ll have 2010 recounted on the blog in the coming days…
Blogger’s Update (01/16): Better than expected reviews are pushing my estimate from $38.6 million to $45.6 million
A quarter century after the original made Will Smith an action hero, he teams again with Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys for Life next weekend. This is the duo’s third collaboration playing cops battling European baddies and Michael Bay (who made the first two) is away from the director’s chair with Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah taking over. Franchise players Joe Pantoliano and Theresa Randle are back and newcomers include Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Charles Melton, and Paola Nunez.
The MLK holiday frame caps off a busy few months for the Artist Formerly Known as Fresh Prince. Last summer, he had a huge hit with Aladdin. In the fall, he experienced a flop with Gemini Man and voiced the lead character in the decently performing family pic Spies in Disguise.
Back in the spring of 1995, the original Boys took in $15 million for its start with an eventual $65 million gross. Eight years later, Bad Boys II tripled that debut with $46 million with an overall tally of $138 million.
Seventeen years is a long break between entries and 2019 showed us that franchise fatigue was real in many cases. One example was Men in Black: International, which Mr. Smith steered clear from.
Mu guess is that part 3 won’t match its predecessor’s earnings and that’s even with the extra Monday due to the holiday. A decent comp could be Ride Along 2, which made $41 million over MLK four years back. That was under the $48 million that the first Ride hauled in. I’ll say Smith and Lawrence’s reported last ride hovers around the $40 million mark.
Bad Boys for Life opening weekend prediction: $45.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Director Harmony Korine brings his drug fueled comedic sensibilities to the screen next weekend with the release of TheBeachBum. The Kids and SpringBreakers maker’s latest casts Matthew McConaughey as a stoner poet named Moondog. The supporting cast includes Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg, Jonah Hill, Zac Efron, and Martin Lawrence.
There’s a niche market for Korine’s product and more solid reviews may have assisted. However, when Bum debuted at the South by Southwest Festival, it did so to mixed reaction. It currently has a 55% Rotten Tomatoes score.
It was only recently announced that this is being rolled out in wide fashion on Friday. A screen count could change my estimate, but as of now I’ll say it’ll be lucky to reach $2 million.
TheBeachBum opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
Eight years ago Today in Movie History – as if you didn’t know – Martin Lawrence returned in Big Momma’s House 2, which easily topped the box office chart with a $27.7 million premiere. The sequel would end up with $70M domestic. It did not reach the heights of its 2000 predecessor which took in $117 million, but that didn’t prevent a third Momma helping in 2011 which managed only $37 million stateside. Lawrence’s creation predated Madea but was clearly influenced by Eddie Murphy’s success in The Nutty Professor which had opened a few years before.
As for birthdays, Alan Cumming is 49 today. Many may know him for his role on TV’s “The Good Wife”, but comic book fans know him as Nightcrawler in X2: X-Men United. Other notable appearances: GoldenEye, Eyes Wide Shut, and the Spy Kids and Smurfs franchises.
Rosamund Pike is 35 today. She also costarred in a Pierce Brosnan Bond film, 2002’s Die Another Day. Since then she’s appeared in Pride&Prejudice, An Education, Wrath of the Titans, Jack Reacher, and The World’s End. Ms. Pike will become much more high-profile when she costars alongside Ben Affleck in this fall’s eagerly awaited David Fincher thriller Gone Girl.
As for Six Degrees of Separation between them – well, they both were in Bond films with Pierce Brosnan. And Cumming was in Eyes Wide Shut with Tom Cruise who was in Jack Reacher with Pike.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 