Tag: Marc Forster

Best Picture 2004: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.

Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.

That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.

Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.

While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.

In previous posts covering 2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.

That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.

Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.

For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.

This means my expanded ten consists of:

The Aviator

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Finding Neverland

Hotel Rwanda

The Incredibles

Million Dollar Baby

The Motorcycle Diaries

Ray

Sideways

Vera Drake

I’ll have 2003 up next in this series!

White Bird Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

White Bird at last flies into theaters after significant delays on October 4th. The period drama is a prequel to 2017’s blockbuster Wonder. Like that hit, it’s based on source material from R.J. Palacio. Marc Forster directs and the cast includes Ariella Glaser, Orlando Schwerdt, Bryce Gheisar, Gillian Anderson, and Helen Mirren.

Lionsgate originally was slated to release Bird in September 2022 and then in summer 2023 before finally landing on this date. The distributor has seemingly been conducting a yard sale of flops over the past several weeks such as Borderlands, The Crow, The Killer’s Game, Never Let Go, and Megalopolis.

I don’t see White Bird reversing the trend. Wonder was seven years ago, but a bigger problem might be that audiences aren’t aware of the prequel’s existence. Like the aforementioned features, hitting $5 million out of the gate might be a challenge.

White Bird opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million

For my Joker: Folie à Deux prediction, click here:

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction

A Man Called Otto Review

A Man Called Otto is metaphorically and actually about the title character eventually getting his power back. Otto Anderson (Tom Hanks) is a recent widower just retired. We’re introduced to him as he suspiciously and precisely purchases a length of rope at a local suburban Pittsburgh home improvement store. Otto is a curmudgeon and he would probably tell neighbors to remove themselves from his condominium lawn, but he’s also Tom Hanks so we’re softened to him. It’s a bummer when that length of rope turns out to be what we fear. Not happy about his current situation, he shuts his electricity off as a prelude to suicide.

Then he keeps getting interrupted. The first prevention comes unwittingly from new neighbors Marisol (Mariana Treviño, stealing the show) and Tommy (Manuel Garcia-Rulfo). They are parents of two adorable girls with a boy on the way. The husband is a kindly dim bulb. Marisol is not. She’s strong and caring and seems to drive every relationship she’s in even if she can’t drive a car. At first Otto is dismissive of her (though not her cooking).

Another attempt involving carbon monoxide poisoning is thwarted by Marisol. Slowly an odd friendship develops. Their interplay generates the real electricity in the screenplay from David Magee. It was, as many know, adapted from Fredrik Backman’s 2012 novel A Man Called Ove. It was turned into an Oscar nominated 2015 Swedish film.

The genuine emotional connection between Otto and Marisol helps mask that other characters are broad caricatures. There’s silly Jimmy (Cameron Britton), who’s always doing his comically awkward walks nearby. Or the hip hop blaring Real Estate Agent (comedian Mike Birbiglia), who is trying to evict Otto’s long-time friends with health problems. Minimal nuance is involved with these folks – “Real Estate Agent” isn’t even granted a name. I forget if Bratty Dog Walker (her pooch is treated like royalty) has one. There is a cat who is easily more memorable as Otto increasingly seems to have nine lives. Also on the plus side, flashback sequences that show his marriage to Sonya (Rachel Keller) help inform Otto’s condition. His younger self is portrayed by the actor’s real son Truman Hanks.

Marc Forster is behind the camera and what a fascinating filmography he’s had. From directing Halle Berry to an Oscar in Monster’s Ball to Daniel Craig’s weakest 007 outing Quantum of Solace to the effective adaptation of World War Z and Finding Neverland and Christopher Robin, he mixes it up. His main style might be that he doesn’t have much of one (whatever fits the occasion). A silhouetted and overly dramatic later suicide attempt tries to bite off more stylistically than its filmmaker can chew. Forster is mostly content to allow Hanks and Treviño steer the vehicle and that’s welcome. A Man Called Otto is far from perfect yet it has a lot of heart.

*** (out of four)

A Man Called Otto Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/09): Based on Otto‘s impressive performance on just over 600 screens the previous weekend, I am revising my estimate considerably up from $11.3 million $15.9 million for the four-day MLK haul.

One of the most beloved Everyman actors is a grumpy man in A Man Called Otto, opening wide on January 13th. Tom Hanks is the title character in this remake of the 2015 Swedish film which was adapted from a 2012 Fredrik Backman novel. Marc Forster directs with a supporting cast including Mariana Treviño, Rachel Keller, Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, Cameron Britton, and Mike Birbiglia.

Reviews are fairly decent with a current 66% Rotten Tomatoes score. Hanks is obviously a big name though he’s not the box office draw he once was. He did just recently appear in the summer hit Elvis. However, recent starring roles have either been streaming debuts (Greyhound, Finch) or under performers (News of the World).

Pics catering to adults have generally suffered at multiplexes lately. What might help is that the book was a huge bestseller. That said, even with a four-day MLK rollout, I question whether this gets to double digits. I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt. Otto does expand to over 600 venues on January 6th. Depending on how it rolls out this weekend, it could change the forecast below.

A Man Called Otto opening weekend prediction: $15.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Plane prediction, click here:

Plane Box Office Prediction

For my House Party prediction, click here:

House Party Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: A Man Called Otto

Marc Forster’s A Man Called Otto is the second cinematic rendering of Fredrik Backman’s 2012 Swedish dramedy novel titled A Man Called Ove. The first originated from that nation in 2015, drew wide critical praise, and was nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Makeup Hairstyling at the Oscars.

The American remake is out for an awards qualifying run on December 30th before a wide release on January 13th. I’m really wondering if Sony Pictures dropped the ball a bit with their campaign. Reviews are of the mixed variety with a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 74%. However, this sounds like a crowdpleaser that might win over audiences and rustle up decent business.

In a stronger year for lead, I might discount Hanks. The two-time recipient of the prize and six-time nominee plays against type as a widowed grumpy old man. Four slots in the Actor derby seem spoken for: Austin Butler for Elvis (in which Hanks costars), Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser in The Whale, and Bill Nighy for Living. The fifth seems wide open with Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Hugh Jackman (The Son), and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) among those in contention. If Otto had been allowed a little more runway for its buzz to build, I’d throw Hanks in that mix. Now it might simply be too late.

That same logic applies to Mariana Treviño and even more so. The Mexican actress is getting rave notices. More than any other of the acting competitions, Supporting Actress has lots of possibilities and perhaps no slam dunk nominees. Had Sony mounted a spirited drive for Treviño, her inclusion would have been feasible. It’s still doable though unlikely.

There is one category where Otto could hear its name called. Of the 15 announced shortlist tunes for Original Song, “Til You’re Home” is in. The track is performed by the star’s wife Rita Wilson and Sebastiān Yatra. It was a surprise entry in the field and I’d be surprised if it makes the eventual five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Long and Winding Bond

It’s amazing to think that The Beatles released their first single in 1962. This was also the first year that a Bond picture came out with Dr. No. Both entities are still extraordinarily relevant. Famously, Sean Connery’s Bond dissed the Fab Four in 1964’s Goldfinger. 

007 fans got some welcome news this week as Cary Fukunaga was announced as the director of the 25th (and as yet untitled) official James Bond film. By the time it comes out, Mr. Fukunaga will be the first American filmmaker to make a Bond pic in its 58 year history.

He brings an exciting resume to the fold. In addition to a filmography that includes varied directorial efforts like Sin Nombre, Jane Eyre, and Beasts of No Nation, his screenwriting credits include last year’s smash It and TV’s The Alienist. His work behind the camera for television also includes the critically lauded first season of HBO’s True Detective and Netflix’s Maniac with Emma Stone and Jonah Hill (which premieres today).

The pick was a surprise and it wasn’t just due to his U.S. heritage. The producers behind Bond had recently gone with a certain type… awards friendly directors branching out to the super spy series. After Martin Campbell successfully kicked off the Daniel Craig era (just as he did for Pierce Brosnan in Goldeneye), Marc Forster (maker of Monster’s Ball and Finding Neverland) did the disappointing Quantum of Solace. Then it was Academy Award winning Sam Mendes behind Skyfall and Spectre. 

When Danny Boyle was announced as director for Bond 25, it seemed to fit the mold. He’s an Oscar winner for Slumdog Millionaire. He’s also directed some other genre fare (including Trainspotting and 28 Days Later) that made him a fairly exciting pick. Yet it somehow seemed a little safe. After creative differences caused his exit, I figured someone like Joe Wright (who last directed Darkest Hour) could be the replacement.

Fukunaga is an intriguing selection and I’m curious to see how he handles what is very likely to be Craig’s final appearance as 007. And this brings us to Mr. Craig’s longevity. Sean Connery made six movies in the official canon (1983’s Never Say Never Again isn’t considered part of it). George Lazenby did the one-off On Her Majesty’s Secret Service. Roger Moore is the leader with seven. Timothy Dalton had two. Pierce Brosnan made four.

This will be Craig’s fifth 007 turn. Surprisingly, he will have actually portrayed the MI6 agent the longest by the time #25 is released in February 2020. His 14 year reign will eclipse the 12 years that Moore played him.

Attention will soon turn to the next Bond. If I had to guess, I figure the seventh actor to play him will debut onscreen in November 2022. There’s been rumors of Idris Elba taking over the role. Expect plenty of speculation over the next couple of years. By that time, the Bond franchise will be 60 years old. Like The Beatles music, it will never die and the long and winding road of the franchise continues to interest us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Au_QW5MJNI

Christopher Robin Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down a tad from $34 million to $29.6 million

Disney’s Christopher Robin hopes to make a pot of money when it’s released next weekend. The mix of live-action and CG brings back Winnie the Pooh, Tigger, Eeyore, Piglet, and other notable creatures that originated from the 1926 novel. Ewan McGregor plays an adult Christopher with Hayley Atwell as his wife. Jim Cummings, Brad Garrett, Toby Jones, Nick Mohammed, Peter Capaldi, and Sophie Okonedo provide voiceover work. Marc Forster directs. I’m guessing this is more in tone with his 2003 pic Finding Neverland and not Quantum of Solace and World War Z.

This is not to be confused with last year’s Goodbye Christopher Robin with Domhnall Gleeson and Margot Robbie. That biopic about Pooh’s author went nowhere at the box office.

That shouldn’t be the case here. The Mouse Factory is certainly astute at marketing their product and the familiarity with Winnie and friends won’t hurt. It may even succeed at tapping into adult moviegoers hungry for a nostalgic fix. Depending on how high Mission: Impossible – Fallout flies this coming weekend, a low to possibly mid 30s gross from Robin could put it in contention for the top spot. That seems reasonable for where this begins.

Christopher Robin opening weekend prediction: $29.6 million

For my The Spy Who Dumped Me prediction, click here:

The Spy Who Dumped Me Box Office Prediction

For my The Darkest Minds prediction, click here:

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction