Tag: Madea

Oscar Predictions: The Six Triple Eight

Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.

This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.

Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

Tyler Perry’s many cinematic undertakings get the spoof treatment with Not Another Church Movie on May 10th. Johnny Mack directs with Kevin Daniels as Taylor Pherry (in case there was any confusion) headlining. Jamie Foxx plays God with Mickey Rourke as the Devil. Other supporting players include Vivica A. Fox, Kyla Pratt, Lamorne Morris, Tisha Campbell, and Jasmine Guy.

I wonder if this parody might be arriving a little late as the Madea heyday was a few years back (though he’s still making them). This could still succeed in bringing in a decent sized African-American crowd. I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my estimate. Upper single digits would be an achievement. I’m not sure it gets that much, especially given the reported 1100 screen count.

Not Another Church Movie opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes prediction, click here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: A Jazzman’s Blues

Tyler Perry puts away that Madea smock for a love story spanning four decades in A Jazzman’s Blues, which streams on Netflix beginning September 23rd. The writer/director’s latest premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a cast of relative unknowns including Joshua Boone, Amirah Vann, Solea Pfeiffer, and Ryan Eggold.

Early critical reaction is mostly appreciative of Perry’s effort. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 80%. This doesn’t, however, appear to be his bid at awards kudos. The reviews are less raves and more claims that it’s serviceable. Don’t look for this to play with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral Box Office Prediction

Just so there’s zero confusion, it’s not Martin Scorsese’s A Madea Family Funeral debuting next weekend. No, this would be the latest Tyler Perry effort from the writer/director/star and it’s said to be the final pic with the Madea moniker.

Originally slated to open last fall, Funeral looks to bring in Perry’s consistent crowd one more time. It’s likely to succeed. Let’s take a trip down Madea memory lane with the premiere weekends of each one featuring that name:

Madea’s Family Reunion (2006) – $30 million

Madea Goes to Jail (2009) – $41 million

Madea’s Big Happy Family (2011) – $25 million

Madea’s Witness Protection (2012) – $25 million

A Madea Christmas (2013) – $16 million

Boo! A Madea Halloween (2016) – $28 million

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (2017) – $21 million

Christmas is a bit of an outlier since it came out in the bustling holiday frame when titles often open somewhat low and leg out. A common theme with this franchise is front loaded first weekends that frequently represent nearly half the overall domestic gross.

I see no reason why Funeral wouldn’t top $20 million out of the gate and I’ll put it in range with what Boo 2! achieved, going a tad higher.

Todd Thatcher’s A Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

For my Greta prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/25/greta-box-office-prediction/

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween Box Office Prediction

Tyler’s Perry Madea character looks to say hello to the #1 spot again next weekend when Boo 2! A Madea Halloween debuts. As is the case with these ventures, the star both directs and writes. Costars include Cassi Davis and Patrice Lovely.

On this same weekend last year, A Madea Halloween opened a bit above expectations with $28 million, ruling the box office for two weeks and grossing $73 million overall. The uptick was a bit of a surprise since the previous holiday themed pic A Madea Christmas earned the lowest opening ($16M) of the six flicks carrying the Madea moniker and lowest overall domestic gross ($52M). 

Last October proved audiences still had love for the character and I don’t see that subsiding much here. Sequelitis may come into small effect, but a smallish decline of close to 20% under its predecessor still gets this in the low to mid 20s and that should be good enough for the top spot.

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my Only the Brave prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/only-the-brave-box-office-prediction/

For my Geostorm prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/geostorm-box-office-prediction/

For my The Snowman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/the-snowman-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 13-15

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t manage to reach the heights of its predecessor last year as it opened to $73.6 million over the weekend, below my $77.9M prediction. In my post about Smaug, I opined that anything below $75M would likely be considered a letdown and it must be noted that Smaug earned over $10M less than An Unexpected Journey did last year. We’ll see how it holds up over the next couple of weeks.

With a smaller than expected decline in weekend #3, Disney’s Frozen was second with $22.1 million, above my $17.1M estimate. The animated tale has earned $164 million so far and should eventually surpass $250M mark.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was the disappointing performance of Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas. Audiences interest in the character is clearly waning as Christmas posted the lowest opening of any pic in the franchise with $16 million. This is less than half of my generous $33.7M prediction. No Madea flick had made less than $25 million in their openings until now so this is a considerably weak debut for Mr. Perry and company.

Rounding out the top five: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at four with $13.1 million (just above my $12.3M prediction) and Thor: The Dark World at five with $2.7 million (just above my $2.5M projection).

Be sure to check the blog today as my predictions will roll in on Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, and Walking with Dinosaurs.

Box Office Predictions: December 13-15

Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas Box Office Prediction

The wizards and dragons of The Hobbit film series aren’t the only popular franchise characters returning to theaters during the second weekend of December 2013. Madea and company are back with Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, the fifth entry in the cash cow of a series.

Let’s take a trip down the Madea franchise lane with the openings of each picture:

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion (2006) – $30 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (2009) – $41 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (2011) – $25 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection (2012) – $25.3 million

As you can see, the openings of the last two pics have not been as big as the first two entries (though $25 million is still a strong performance, especially since they only cost around $20M to produce). I think there’s a decent chance that A Madea Christmas outperforms its two predecessors due to the timely holiday theme. While I have doubts it will reach the low 40s opening of Madea Goes To Jail, it stands a shot of having the second highest opening of the franchise so far. The Madea flicks generally do about 40 some percent of its business during opening weekend and I anticipate the front loaded trend will continue with this one.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/