Oscar Predictions: Backrooms

Marking the directorial debut of Kane Parsons and based on his viral creepypasta phenomenon, horror pic Backrooms is expected to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell fill out the cast.

With 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 76 Metacritic, reviews are generally being kind. Unlike other recent genre titles (hello unexpected box office juggernaut and critical darling Obsession), this is not expected to be talked about for major awards. On the other hand, the plot revolves around the sets and that’s where Academy voters could consider this for a Production Design nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Backrooms Box Office Prediction

A24 looks to achieve its largest opening weekend yet when Backrooms arrives on May 29th. Based on his own highly popular web series, Kane Parsons directs the sci-fi horror flick. Chiwetel Ejiofor leads a cast that includes Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell.

With James Wan, Shawn Levy, and Osgood Perkins among the producers, this looks to capitalize on its YouTube source material which boasts nearly 80 millions views. In order to set a record premiere for its distributor, Backrooms would need to top the $27 million that last December’s Marty Supreme started with.

Even though its earnings might be front-loaded, my hunch is that this has a better shot at exceeding expectations than going under them. I think mid to high 50s is doable and that would give it the #1 spot over The Mandalorian and Grogu and Obsession.

Backrooms opening weekend prediction: $57 million

For my The Breadwinner prediction, click here:

For my Pressure prediction, click here:

AfrAId Box Office Prediction

Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.

At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.

AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.

AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)

For my Reagan prediction, click here: