Thanksgiving 2015 Box Office Predictions

The Turkey Day weekend box office is upon us and we have three new holiday offerings joining the fray: Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur, critically lauded Rocky spinoff Creed, and gothic horror tale Victor Frankenstein. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

Since the final Hunger Games pic opened to less than expected results (more on that below), I believe Dinosaur should roam to the top of the charts, though it could be somewhat close.

Solid buzz should put Creed solidly in third place, while I expect Frankenstein to struggle a bit in its opening. Holdovers like Spectre, The Peanuts Movie, and The Night Before should experience small declines as is typical over this holiday weekend.

And with that, I’ll do a top seven predictions that includes projections for both the traditional three day weekend and expanded Thanksgiving five day frame:

The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $48.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $75.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Creed

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $17.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $15.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Victor Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $8 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 20-22)

Katniss and company easily ruled the box office as Mockingjay – Part 2 debuted, but it undeniably came in with less than anticipated numbers. The fourth and final chapter of The Hunger Games franchise made $102.6 million compared to my $124.2M forecast. This is easily the lowest opener of the series and over $50M below the heights of what Catching Fire did two years ago. A nine-digit premiere is always pretty solid, but Lionsgate was likely hoping for a better result than this.

007 was second with Spectre taking in $15 million, on target with my $15.3M forecast. In three weeks, its total stands at $154M.

Snoopy and the gang were third with The Peanuts Movie making $13.2 million, in line with my $14.1M projection. Its three week tally is $99M.

Raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before had a lackluster beginning with just $9.8 million, well below my $16.6M projection. Its best hope is for smallish declines as the holiday it focuses on draws closer.

The weekend’s other newcomer, thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Julia Roberts, settled for fifth with a muted $6.6 million. It did manage to top my $5.1M prediction.

In sixth, another Christmas comedy Love the Coopers made just $3.9 million in its sophomore frame, below my $5.4M guesstimate.

Finally, Oscar hopeful Spotlight expanded its screen count and took in $3.5 million for 8th place. It couldn’t match my $4.7M projection, but did have the second highest per screen average of any film in the top ten after Mockingjay.

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 20-22

The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.

The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.

And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:

Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $124.2 million

2. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Secret in Their Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (November 13-15)

As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.

Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.

Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.

Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 13-15

Three new movies populate the marketplace this weekend: Christmas comedy Love the Coopers, true life Chilean mining disaster pic The 33, and football drama My All-American. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Love the Coopers Box Office Prediction

The 33 Box Office Prediction

My All-American Box Office Prediction

I find it highly unlikely that any of them will challenge the box office domination of Spectre or The Peanuts Movie, which will both be entering their sophomore frames. In fact, while I see Coopers and The 33 battling for the third spot and My All-American opening outside the top five, the real drama could be between Bond vs. Snoopy for the #1 position.

That’s because Spectre opened below most expectations, including my own. The last two Bond flicks (Quantum of Solace and Skyfall) experienced 60 and 53 percent second week drops, respectively, and I anticipate this one sliding somewhere in between those two figures.

The Peanuts Movie should not dip near as precipitously in its follow-up frame. I believe it will lose around a third of its audience and my prediction has it within very close striking distance to 007.

Ridley Scott’s The Martian should round out the top five. My $3.8 million estimate for My All-American will likely put it at the #8 spot behind Goosebumps and Bridge of Spies.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Spectre

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The 33

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (November 6-8)

While it’s been setting records overseas, Daniel Craig’s fourth Bond pic Spectre didn’t quite match expectations while still giving the franchise its second best start in history. With its mixed reviews, the film took in $70.4 million, well below my $91.3M forecast. The previous entry, the acclaimed Skyfall, still easily maintains its status as largest opener domestically with its $88M from three years. Spectre opened closer to 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which earned $67M.

The Peanuts Movie opened right in line with expectations with an encouraging $44.2 million, on pace with my $43.4M forecast. With its solid A Cinemascore grade, look for this to start a new family franchise and perform well in the coming weeks.

The rest of the top five was filled with holdovers as The Martian was third with $9 million (ahead of my $7.7M prediction) for a total of $196M. Goosebumps took fourth with $6.8 million (in line with my $6M projection) for an overall $66M gross. Bridge of Spies was fifth with $5.8 million (which is exactly what I predicted… pat on back). It’s made $54M so far.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Love the Coopers Box Office Prediction

The Christmas season hits the box office in mid November as the holiday themed Love the Coopers opens next Friday. With an all-star cast including John Goodman, Diane Keaton, Marisa Tomei, Olivia Wilde, Ed Helms, Anthony Mackie, June Squibb, Amanda Seyfried, and Alan Arkin, the family affair will look to cash in with audiences looking for some Xmas cheer.

Its prospects are a bit sketchy. Trailers and TV spots for Coopers have done little to make it look like another run of the mill big ensemble experience. Its best hope is to bring in a female audience looking for a diversion from James Bond, which should still be performing like gang busters in weekend #2.

That might be enough to help it reach double digits, though I don’t believe that’s guaranteed. I could actually see this debuting in line with The Family Stone, a similarly themed comedy which opened 10 years ago. Solid word of mouth could push it to perform in subsequent weekends yet that remains to be seen.

Love the Coopers opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million

For my The 33 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/06/the-33-box-office-prediction/

For my My All-American prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/07/my-all-american-box-office-prediction/

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