It’s been nearly 25 years since Liam Neeson received his one and only Oscar nomination for playing Oskar Schindler in 1993’s Schindler’sList. He’s had acclaimed roles since then (2004’s Kinsey being a notable one). To younger moviegoers, he may just be known as the brooding action hero from the Taken franchise and others. Yet MarkFelt: TheManWhoBroughtDowntheWhiteHouse had prognosticators like me take notice when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival.
The film casts Neeson as the title character, the real-life FBI man who was revealed decades later to be Deep Throat. Felt provided the invaluable intel that resulted in President Nixon’s resignation. Peter Landesman directs with a supporting cast that includes Diane Lane, Tony Goldwyn, Bruce Greenwood, Ike Barinholtz, and Michael C. Hall.
While reviews for Neeson’s work here have been solid, reaction to the picture itself has been rather lackluster. It stands at just 44% on Rotten Tomatoes. In other words, Neeson is the only possibility at all for Academy chatter. That appears to be a long shot. The film fest season of the past couple weeks has provided a couple names with better chances like Denzel Washington in RomanJ.Israel, Esq. and Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger. That’s in addition to the assured nomination of Gary Oldman in DarkestHour, not to mention plenty of other contenders whose movies haven’t screened.
As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.
Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).
Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.
So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. Darkest Hour
4. Mudbound
5. Call Me by Your Name
6. Battle of the Sexes
7. The Shape of Water
8. Downsizing
9. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
10. Last Flag Flying
11. Phantom Thread
12. Wonder Wheel
13. mother!
14. Detroit
15. Blade Runner 2049
16. Goodbye Christopher Robin
17. Wonderstruck
18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
19. Coco
20. Get Out
21. Wind River
22. Lady Bird
23. Wonder Woman
24. Molly’s Game
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post
3. Dee Rees, Mudbound
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
4. Tom Hanks, The Post
5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
10. Matt Damon, Downsizing
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker
13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River
15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
2. Meryl Streep, The Post
3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade
13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan
13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
14. Will Poulter, Detroit
15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post
2. Mudbound
3. Call Me by Your Name
4. Last Flag Flying
5. Molly’s Game
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. You Were Never Really Here
8. Victoria and Abdul
9. The Beguiled
10. The Disaster Artist
11. Blade Runner 2049
12. Stronger
13. Wonder
14. My Cousin Rachel
15. Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Battle of the Sexes
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonder Wheel
5. Downsizing
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Get Out
8. Phantom Thread
9. Dunkirk
10. The Big Sick
11. Lady Bird
12. The Florida Project
13. mother!
14. The Greatest Showman
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin
And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…
We have now arrived at Best Actor for my earliest 2017 Oscar predictions! At first glance, this appears to be potentially loaded with heavy hitters. This includes Gary Oldman going for his first Oscar as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, Daniel Day-Lewis going for his fourth (!) in Phantom Thread, and Tom Hanks going for #3 in The Papers. We also have Hugh Jackman in what could be a show stopping role as P.T. Barnum in The Greatest Showman and Joaquin Phoenix in his already screened and acclaimed performance for You Were Never Really Here.
This is addition to several other very recognizable names listed as possibilities. Bottom line: Best Actor looks packed in 2017 and here’s my initial projections:
TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Papers
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Other Possibilities:
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
J.A. Bayona’s AMonsterCalls finds creative ways to deal with familiar themes and it often does so quite effectively. Based on a novel by Patrick Ness (who also did the screenplay), it tells the coming of age tale of Conor O’Malley (Lewis MacDougall). Conor, as we’re told in the opening sequence, is too old to be a kid and too young to be a grown-up.
It’s at this delicate age in England that he must deal with some heart wrenching experiences. His mother (Felicity Jones) is terminally ill. Conor doesn’t particularly get along with his well-meaning grandmother (Sigourney Weaver) and his father (Toby Kebbell) resides in Los Angeles with his second family. He’s also bullied at school. The boy’s active imagination allows him to conjure up the title character. It arrives in the form of a giant tree come to life (voiced by Liam Neeson), who visits Conor promptly at 12:07. The Monster does not terrorize him, but rather tells him three tales. These are done in animated form. While they begin as fairy tale like yarns, its listener isn’t sure what to make of them as they divert into surprising endings.
We as an audience aren’t sure either and we along with Conor are told that the boy will tell the final fourth tale. AMonsterCalls may contain elements you’d find in many fantasy tales, including nifty creature design and impressive special effects. Yet it’s more concerned with themes of grief and how to find ways to cope with it.
A subpar child actor performance runs the risk of spoiling material, but MacDougall shows we needn’t worry about that. He delivers believable and touching work, as do Jones and Weaver in their supporting roles. Much credit is also due to Neeson’s voice over work (look for a cameo from the actor himself that becomes pivotal after the picture’s conclusion).
Bayona and Ness tug at the heartstrings mostly without being cloying and have a splendid visual landscape to go along with it. Is the story anything truly new? Not really, but they find rather inventive ways to tell it and it earns its emotional resonance.
Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.
One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.
Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.
The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.
When J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls debuted in September at the Toronto Film Festival, it did so to solid buzz and even some awards chatter. Much of that talk seems to have dissipated from nearly four months ago and the pic may struggle to find an audience when it opens wide next weekend.
Based on an acclaimed 2011 novel by Patrick Ness, Calls mixes science fiction elements with tearjerker family drama in this tale of a monstrous creature helping a young boy deal with his grief. Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Lewis MacDougall, and Liam Neeson (voicing the title character) star.
As mentioned, most reviews have been encouraging (it’s at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet I wonder what segment of the movie going public will turn out for this. The film was originally scheduled for an October stateside debut before being pushed back. Sci-fi genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately and Underworld: Blood Wars opens against it. A female crowd that might get drawn in by the family drama angle could be put off with the mystical elements. The early January release date doesn’t inspire much hope that Focus Features has tremendous confidence in it.
Festival word-of-mouth aside, I’ll predict A Monster Calls struggles to reach a mid single digits reception. At least director Bayona can take comfort that his next feature, 2018’s Jurassic World sequel, will likely gross at least 50 times what this might in its opening weekend.
A Monster Calls opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
Official reviews are at last out today for Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Focused on Jesuit priests being persecuted in Japan in the 17th century, the film has long been a passion project for the heralded director. It’s also long been thought of as a potential major Oscar contender and the buzz certainly confirms that notion. Early reviews are strong enough that Silence looks highly likely to be nominated for both Picture and Director.
In the 21st century, five of the six pictures that Scorsese directed scored Picture nods. The only one that didn’t was 2010’s ShutterIsland and that wasn’t really made for awards attention. Only TheDeparted won the big race along with Scorsese getting his only win ever in Director. Marty’s big competition is in the form of LaLaLand and its director Damien Chazelle, which still appears to be hold front runner status. In the Directing category, the work of Barry Jenkins in Moonlight is also garnering talk.
Screenwriter Jay Cocks looks assured for an Adapted Screenplay nomination. Silence could also score a number of down the line nods in Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, and Production Design.
The acting possibilities for recognition is a bit more complicated. Andrew Garfield is competing against himself in Actor and there’s a very good chance he’d be nominated instead for HacksawRidge (or not at all). Then there’s Supporting Actor with Liam Neeson, Adam Driver, and Issey Ogata in the mix. For months, it was presumed that Neeson would stand the best chance, but the Los Angeles Film Critics named Ogata their runner-up for his supporting work. Driver has gotten some ink for reportedly losing 50 pounds for his role here and the Academy loves stuff like that. Add that up and it’s more uncertainty in an already quite uncertain Supporting Actor derby.
Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!
It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.
Let us count them…
1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.
2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.
3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.
There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:
Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.
Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.
Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.
Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.
Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.
4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.
Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Fences (PR: 2)
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 8)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
11. Jackie (PR: 9)
12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)
13. Sully (PR: 15)
14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Live by Night (PR: 14)
18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
20. The Founder (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)
8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Moonlight (PR: 1)
3. La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. The Lobster (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
8. Sully (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 9)
10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Whew! And there you have it…
Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…
Happy Turkey Day all! And yes we all know it’s Thursday and that also means my weekly Oscar predictions are here for you to stuff yourself with. Over the last week, we have seen new developments as Allied opened, reviews came out, and its awards chances went buh bye.
Furthermore, both PatriotsDay and TheFounder (both out next month) had critical reaction come in. Patriots has established itself as a dark horse candidate for recognition with Founder popping up in the bottom of possibilities based on their reviews.
Added to that… Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally got a trailer release about a month before its premiere.
So there’s a bit of movement happening on the charts and here’s my Thanksgiving projections for the eight major categories:
BESTPICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. LaLaLand (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 9)
8. Arrival (PR: 7)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
11. HellorHighWater (PR: 11)
12. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 12)
13. PatriotsDay (PR: Not Ranked)
14. LivebyNight (PR: 13)
15. Sully (PR: 14)
16. HacksawRidge (PR: 15)
17. NocturnalAnimals (PR: 17)
18. TheJungleBook (PR: 16)
19. TheFounder (Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Allied
FlorenceFosterJenkins
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
BESTACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Keaton, TheFounder (PR: 7)
7. Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic (PR: 9)
8. Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
BESTACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, LaLaLand (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Jessica Chastain, MissSloane (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
7. Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
10. Taraji P. Henson, HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals (PR: 1)
4. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, HellorHighWater (PR: 10)
7. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: 9)
10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, HiddenFigures (PR: 8)
7. Octavia Spencer, HiddenFigures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, OtherPeople (PR: 6)
9. Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky (PR: 9)
10. Felicity Jones, AMonsterCalls (PR: 10)
BESTORIGINALSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 3)
3. LaLaLand (PR: 2)
4. HellorHighWater (PR: 5)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Loving (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 4)
8. TheLobster (PR: 8)
9. CaptainFantastic (PR: 9)
10. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, DanielBlake
BESTADAPTEDSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Arrival (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. HiddenFigures (PR: 6)
7. LivebyNight (PR: 7)
8. HacksawRidge (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 7)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
And that does it for your Thanksgiving edition of my Oscar predictions… Enjoy those leftovers!
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