Box Office Predictions: February 7-9

The Lego Movie should be poised to take the box office by storm next weekend and end the three week reign of Ride Along at the top spot. In fact, there are two other newbies entering the marketplace on Friday as George Clooney’s The Monuments Men and Vampire Academy both debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-lego-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/

My estimates reflect a belief that Lego will open with very healthy results while The Monuments Men will have a middling premiere with a rather weak opening for Vampire Academy. The new pictures should occupy the top three slots with holdovers Ride Along and Frozen in a tight race for fourth place.

And, with that, my predictions for the upcoming weekend’s top five:

1. The Lego Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.2 million

2. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

3. Vampire Academy

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

4. Ride Along

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

The Super Bowl weekend brought an expected quiet frame at multiplexes. As predicted, Ride Along held #1 for its third weekend with $12 million, just above my $11.3M estimate. Disney’s Frozen, with its new sing-along version, was second with $8.9 million – below my $10.7M projection.

The Zac Efron comedy That Awkward Moment took third with an OK $8.7 million for its debut, barely above my $8M projection. The Nut Job was fourth with $7.2 million, right in line with my $7.5M estimate. Lone Survivor took fifth with $7 million (I had it outside the top five).

Where I went wrong was giving Jason Reitman’s Labor Day too much credit. The Kate Winslet/Josh Brolin drama managed only a seventh place debut with $5.1 million, well below my $8.8M projection.

As always, I’ll have early updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Monday. And on Sunday – I’ll have projections for all four openings over Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend: Robocop, About Last Night, Endless Love, and Winter’s Tale. Until next time!

The Lego Movie Box Office Prediction

2013 was a huge year for animated pictures and now the first weekend in February brings The Lego Movie, a high-profile offering from Warner Bros. based on that line of toys that we all grew up and played with. Lego features the voices of plenty of actors we know including Will Ferrell, Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett, Charlie Day, Morgan Freeman, Liam Neeson, Channing Tatum, and Jonah Hill.

While The Lego Movie is unlikely to reach the heights of Despicable Me 2, Frozen, or Monsters University from last year, it’s reasonable to speculate than an opening similar to Wreck It Ralph is in the cards. That title opened to $49 million in November 2012. I believe the widespread familiarity of the pic’s subject matter and its robust marketing campaign may actually propel it a bit higher and over the $50M mark. This is the type of animated flick that parents probably won’t mind taking the kiddos to and I’m predicting stellar results.

The Lego Movie opening weekend prediction: $54.2 million

For my prediction on The Monuments Men, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Vampire Academy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/