The performance of Lakeith Stanfield in Shaka King’s Judas and the Black Messiah is last up in my Case Of posts for Supporting Actor hopefuls. For the previous four write-ups, you can find them here:
The past couple of years has brought Stanfield exposure in acclaimed projects ranging from Sorry to Bother You to Knives Out and Uncut Gems. His work here brought career best reviews in his burgeoning career.
The Case Against Lakeith Stanfield:
His nomination came as a total surprise. For starters, Warner Bros campaigned for him in lead actor, but Academy voters went ahead and ignored that. Then there’s the matter of his costar Daniel Kaluuya (they were also in Get Out together).Kaluuya’s win seems assured next weekend as he’s had a clean sweep at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and BAFTA.
The Verdict
According to his own Twitter feed, Stanfield even seemed blindsided by his nod. Judas will probably only get one Oscar and it will be in this race. That will be for Stanfield’s costar.
My Case Of posts have concluded! Thanks to all who have perused all 33 of them. The next matter of business… final Oscar predictions and they’re coming your way very shortly!
The second contest in the Supporting Actor field is up next in my Case Of posts for the Oscars and that’s Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. If you missed my first post covering Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7, it can be read here:
Ever since the trailer came out months ago for Judas, it was clear that Kaluuya’s performance as Black Panther Chairman Fred Hampton could be something special. When it was confirmed that he would compete in Supporting Actor, it was pretty much assumed he was an automatic hopeful. That buzz has only grown louder as Kaluuya (a previous nominee in Best Actor for 2017’s Get Out) has swept this race in the major precursors: Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Daniel Kaluuya
Perhaps the biggest surprise on Oscar nomination morning was Kaluuya’s costar Lakeith Stanfield garnering a nod here (especially since Warner Bros campaigned for him in the lead competition). So there’s always the chance that the two could cancel some of each other’s votes.
The Verdict
The vote splitting dilemma certainly didn’t hurt Sam Rockwell three years ago alongside Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. It’s highly unlikely to hurt Kaluuya either as he feels like the safest pick in the four acting derbies.
My Case Of posts will continue with David Fincher’s direction of Mank…
My Case Of posts for the eight Best Picture players arrives at alphabetical entry #2 and that’s Judas and the Black Messiah. If you missed my entry for The Father, you can find it here:
Like The Father, this Warner Bros/HBO Max drama performed quite well on nomination morning with 6 mentions. In addition to the big race, Judas has two nods in Supporting Actor with Daniel Kaluuya (garnering his second nom after Get Out) and Lakeith Stanfield. Kaluuya is considered the frontrunner. It also got an Original Screenplay slot, which is usually key to serious BP contention. This was one of the later entries in the expanded Oscar calendar (arriving in mid February in theaters and streaming). Voters clearly like what they saw.
The Case Against Judas and the Black Messiah
Also like The Father, Judas missed in some races that usually coincide with a BP victory. Most notable is Best Director (where first timer Shaka King was left out) and Best Film Editing. It also failed to nab a Drama nomination at the Golden Globes.
The Verdict
Judas clearly came on strong late with the Academy, but its misses in significant races and previous precursors make Judas a long shot to win it all.
To Oscar prognosticators like yours truly, today was like Christmas morning as nominations were unwrapped early for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards, airing April 25th. Some things never change with the prediction game. There were categories where I was perfect (3 of them) and, as has become tradition, a dreaded race where I whiffed at 2/5.
As was the most likely scenario, Mank led all films with 10 nominations. Yet it did so by missing some key races that are usually needed to nab a Best Picture victory. This was followed by six pictures garnering six mentions: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Some of those over performed. Others – not so much.
Overall this blogger went 80/104 on estimates and in this topsy turvy year, I’ll take it. Let’s break it down race by race, shall we?
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 7/9
The magic number of nominees ended up being 8 and I projected 9. I’ll say again… I’m very happy that the Academy is going with a set 10 again beginning in 2022. This means it was Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami that missed and The Father (which had a solid showing) in. Judas, Minari and Sound of Metal proved their anticipated status as late bloomers making the cut.
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
How I Did: 4/5
The Academy made history today when they nominated two women in Director for the first time. This was expected, but it is worth noting that Regina King (One Night in Miami) was a contender who missed the cut. That’s not where I went wrong as Vinterberg came out of nowhere to get a spot. While Another Round is expected to emerge victorious in International Feature Film, its director became the rare nominee to get in without a Best Picture slot. And despite being nominated for his writing, Aaron Sorkin (Trial) couldn’t get into this one.
Best Actress
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I can’t put myself on the back too much here. This was widely seen as the most probable quintet and it remained true to form. Potential surprise picks like Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Golden Globe Musical/Comedy winner Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) didn’t materialize.
Best Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Again, no shockers here. Any late momentum by Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) was squashed and Boseman stands tall as the major frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
How I Did: 4/5
For the past couple of weeks, there have been six likely nominees and only five spots. I went with Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) over Seyfried. Fun fact: Foster is the first Globe winner from this category in 44 years to not land an Oscar mention. This is a wide open acting race (more so than the others by far).
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
How I Did: 4/5
The morning’s biggest surprise is the inclusion of Stanfield with his Judas costar Kaluuya. That has nothing to do with performance itself as Warner Bros. actually campaigned for Stanfield in Best Actor. The Academy simply ignored that and chose to put him here. In other words, this is the nomination that nobody saw coming. His inclusion prevented Boseman from being a double nominee for Da 5 Bloods (which had an almost nonexistent showing).
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
No Mank is the headline here as Sound of Metal grabbed the spot. This omission is what makes a Mank BP victory highly doubtful.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger
How I Did: 3/5
Ma Rainey‘s bleaker than expected morning continued with no love here. Same goes for The Mauritanian (which goose egged today). In their place? Borat and The White Tiger.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
How I Did: 4/5
It was Sheep over The Croods: A New Age in a competition where Disney/Pixar’s Soul should dominate.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
How I Did: 3/5
This category (unpredictable usually) was a real head scratcher in 2020. I had Dick Johnson Is Dead and Welcome to Chechnya in over Crip Camp and The Mole Agent. This is a toughie to project, but I’ll say Time might have an edge.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?
How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)
The dreaded 2/5 came here with Better Days, double nominee Collective, and the charmingly titled The Man Who Sold His Skin in over my picks of Dear Comrades!, La Llorona, and Two of Us. This looks like Round‘s race to lose at press time.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
Judas over Minari was where I went wrong, but not shocking considering the former’s very good day. You may have noticed this is the first mention of News of the World, which picked up four tech nods but got zilch in the big derbies.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
How I Did: 4/5
Not many were saying Pinocchio would play here, but it nosed out my Ammonite selection.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
This is another high profile miss for Mank as The Father was selected instead. Of its six nods, this and Original Screenplay is where Trial has the best shot at gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
How I Did: 4/5
And here’s a scenario where I was saying Mank would miss. It didn’t as it edged out Birds of Prey, which was called out zero times this morning.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
How I Did: 4/5
Here marks the sole mention for Bloods in a race where it wasn’t anticipated. It got in over my pick of The Midnight Sky. Like Animated Feature, expect Soul to reign supreme here.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo Si” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
How I Did: 4/5
The chances of Will Ferrell and Rachel McAdams belting out their ballad from the Netflix comedy Eurovision became a reality! It makes the cut over “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (which also missed Documentary Feature).
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
How I Did: 3/5
This is where Mank stands its greatest chance at a victory among the ten nods. The Father and Tenet (both kind of unexpected here) get in over The Midnight Sky and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll take it and the winner will probably be the one with the category name in its title.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
How I Did: 3/5
The One and Only Ivan was my runner-up. Love and Monsters, on the other hand, was not expected. They get in over Mank and Welcome to Chechnya.
To recap, the following pictures nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Mank
6 Nominations
The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Better Days, Crip Camp, Da 5 Bloods, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Love and Monsters, The Man Who Sold His Skin, The Midnight Sky, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Time, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, The White Tiger, Wolfwalkers
Quick tidbits:
12 of the 20 acting nominees are first-timers (Day, Kirby, Ahmed, Boseman, Yeun, Bakalova, Seyfried, Youn, Cohen, Odom, Raci, Stanfield)
3 are previous nominees (Mulligan, Close, Kaluuya)
5 are previous winners (Davis, McDormand, Hopkins, Oldman, Colman)
Of the five directors, only Fincher has been nominated before and none have won
So this begins the next phase of my Oscar predicting as I will do a “Case Of” post individually for all the Picture, Director, and acting nominees. Yes, that means 33 posts in the next several weeks where I outline the pros and cons of each nominee taking the gold or coming up cold. Stay tuned!
My latest round of Oscar estimates keeps my predicted number of Best Picture nominees at the full 10 – with a change. It’s News of the World back in and Promising Young Woman on the outside looking in.
In the other major categories, my picks remain the same with some movement in the rankings. Most notably, in the Supporting Actress field, I am putting Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank back at #1 over Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. The Father (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 7)
10. News of the World (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 13)
13. Soul (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 10)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 10)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (formerly Connected)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 7)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. A Sun (PR: 6)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 8)
9. Two of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Never Gonna Snow Again
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Malcolm & Marie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
10. Greyhound (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 5)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. Mank (PR: 8)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
For the past several years, the magic number has traditionally been nine when it comes to Best Picture nominees. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10 according to the rules, unlike every other category. This changes to a finite 10 starting in 2022. And since August when I began these (mostly) weekly estimates, I’ve kept it at 9.
However, I am expanding it to ten this week as I believe Judas and the Black Messiah could easily make the cut and I just couldn’t take any of the other nine films out. Obviously this may change as we move closer to nomination morning, but that’s where I stand today.
In the major categories, other changes are Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) entering the Best Director mix for the first time and that takes out George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In Supporting Actor, I have yet again switched the 5 spot with Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) in and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) out.
Zendaya’s work in Malcolm & Marie goes from unranked status all the way to #5 and this displaces Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. News of the World (PR: 11)
12. Soul (PR: 13)
13. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robin Wright, Land
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 9)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Minari (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 2)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 9)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. Collective (PR: 7)
5. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Sun (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. Mulan (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 7)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
10. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Emma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, Mulan, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Collective, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Night of the Kings, Onward, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
I continue with my Oscar Watch posts for pictures sending screeners late in the season and we arrive at one with real potential – Shaka King’s Judas and the Black Messiah. The Warner Bros production hits theaters and HBO Max simultaneously on February 12. It stars Lakeith Stanfield as an undercover FBI informant tasked to take down Black Panther head Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya).
While the review embargo is still intact, social media reactions are available today. They point to a feeling many had when the first trailer debuted months ago in that Judas could nab several nominations come Oscar morning. In particular, Kaluuya’s performance (being campaigned for in Supporting Actor) is being highly praised. This would be his second nomination behind his lead work in 2017’s Get Out. His inclusion in the supporting field appears not only likely, but he could win. I could foresee a narrative in which Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Kaluuya vie for the prize and this storyline could play out until April.
Stanfield is in the Best Actor mix, but his final five status is much more questionable. Like Best Actress in 2020, lead actor may already have four performances that are “in”. That would be Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), and Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods). The fifth slot could be a toss-up between several performers including Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Gary Oldman (Mank), and Steven Yeun (Minari). Today’s buzz suggests adding Stanfield to that list is warranted.
Same goes for Supporting Actress with Dominique Fishback as several posts are highlighting her work. This year’s lineup appears in flux and there’s room for last minute surprises in that particular field. She will be one to keep an eye on.
As for Best Picture, Judas has been kept out of my predicted nine until word of mouth was available. When my estimates are updated on Thursday, it could well make its initial appearance. King’s direction is also on the table for final five status. Several down the line races are possible including Cinematography (also being mentioned a lot), Editing, Production Design, and Original Song (with a composition by H.E.R.). Warner Bros seems to know it has a real hopeful on its hands as this has been added to the Sundance schedule later this month.
Bottom line: the social media reaction indicates critics aren’t betrayed by Judas and it has officially announced its way into Academy consideration. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.
In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul.
You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 15)
15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah(PR: 8)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
5. A Sun (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
7. Collective (PR: 5)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
5. Emma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Soul (PR: 7)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Mulan
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 9)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mank
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
My final Oscars forecast for 2020 sees no changes in my nine Best Picture nominees (which has remained consistent for weeks), but some movement in other key races.
In Best Director, I have had David Fincher (Mank) listed at #1 for months, but that switches today as he falls to second with Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) taking the top spot. If she manages to take gold in April, Zhao would be just the second female to win the award behind Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker in 2009. Additionally, Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) is in my final five for the first time, replacing Regina King for One Night in Miami.
While there are no changes in the lead acting competitions, the supporting players are a different story. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari sees her first appearance in my five Supporting Actress hopefuls and that takes out Helena Zengel in News of the World. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor for Sound of Metal and that’s to the detriment of Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7.
You can peruse all the rest of the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 11)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 3)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
8. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 8)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
9. A Sun (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 6)
7. The Prom (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 3)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 8)
8. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 9)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 10)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 7)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Minari
4 Nominations
News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Sound of Metal, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The pre Christmas Oscar estimates are in! While my nine predicted Best Picture nominees remains the same (as they have for weeks), pay attention to Sound of Metal rising as it now ranks 10th and just on the outside looking in. Additionally, supporting players Paul Raci and Olivia Cooke are also looking like serious possibilities in those categories even if they’re not (yet) in the final five.
In Supporting Actor, Chadwick Boseman is back in (over Bill Murray in On the Rocks) as I’m feeling more confident of a double nomination for the late performer.
The fifth spot in Best Actress continues to fluctuate and this week we have Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) in that position over Michelle Pfeiffer’s work in French Exit.
Best Actor brings the first mention of Mads Mikkelsen’s role in Another Round at slot #8 with Ben Affleck (The Way Back) out of the top 10.
Adapted Screenplay sees its first look at First Cow in the projected cut and that takes out News of the World.
You can read all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions for the calendar year up next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 14)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 10)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demonslayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 3)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
76 Days
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
8. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlatan
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. The United vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. The Prom (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Mank (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 8)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Emma (PR: 6)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Greyhound
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 6)
7. Mank (PR: 7)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 