French director Olivier Assayas has flirted with Oscar attention before in titles such as CloudsofSilsMaria and PersonalShopper. Some of that awards chatter for both of them focused on the work of Kristen Stewart, but it never came to fruition.
His latest is the Stewart free WaspNetwork which follows a group of Cuban spies in 1990s Miami. The cast includes Penelope Cruz, Edgar Ramirez, Gael Garcia Bernal, and Ana de Armas. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend to mixed results with IndieWire deeming it a misfire.
Assayas is certainly a filmmaker with a critical following, but it appears Wasp will not fly onto the radar screen of Academy voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Kristen Stewart seems to have found another acclaimed indie role with the premiere of Seberg today at the Venice Film Festival. From director Benedict Andrews (best known for Una), the pic casts Stewart as actress Jean Seberg (best known for 1960’s Breathless), whose career was put in jeopardy by her association with an African-American activist played by Anthony Mackie. Costars include Jack O’Connel, Margaret Qualley, and Vince Vaughn.
Reviews for the film itself are a bit shaky. Yet it’s Stewart once again being singled out for her strong work. The Twilight performer has had a run of applauded roles in titles such as Cloudsof SilsMaria and PersonalShopper. The Academy has yet to take notice and I’m skeptical they will here considering competitors in higher profile material. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Welcome to my first edition of my weekly Oscar predictions where I’ll be ranking my top 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 contenders in the directing, acting, and screenplay categories!
The dawn of my rankings coincides with the start of film festival season as Venice is in full swing with Telluride and Toronto on deck. Noah Baumbach’s MarriageStory has already screened in Italy and solidified its status as a serious contender in numerous races. There’s a whole bunch of movies premiering in the coming days so expect the picture to become a wee bit clearer. That said, I’ve learned a lot of things from years of past predicting when it comes to this time of the year:
Movies thought to be contenders will fail to live up to their buzz
Movies will be pushed back to 2020 and render them ineligible
Leading actor and actress candidates will be moved to supporting and vice versa
Screenplays considered Adapted will become Original and vice versa
Sleepers not currently on the radar will rise up… think last year’s Best Picture winner GreenBook
With all those caveats, let’s get to it! And expect updates every Thursday on the blog…
Today on the blog, we continue with initial Oscar predictions in the six major categories. The supporting races were covered yesterday and if you missed them, you can find the posts right here:
This brings us to Best Actress with a snapshot of the contenders before festival season kicks into high gear later this week. When I did my inaugural projections for this race in August 2018, it yielded two of the eventual nominees – Lady Gaga for AStarIsBorn and Glenn Close as TheWife. In the other possibilities portion naming ten others, winner Olivia Colman for TheFavourite and Melissa McCarthy in CanYouEverForgiveMe? were named.
Non–Fiction is the latest release from writer/director Olivier Assayas and it’s my latest Oscar Watch post coming from the Venice Film Festival. The pic is said to be a departure from the French filmmaker’s recent fare like CloudsofSilsMaria and PersonalShopper. More of a comedic effort, Guillaume Canet and Juliette Binoche star and reviews from Italy indicate another critical darling for Assayas.
However, strong critical reaction hasn’t translated into Oscar nominations previously for the auteur and that is likely to be the case here. Kristen Stewart received career best reviews for Clouds and Shopper and Academy voters didn’t notice. This will need to break out in a huge way stateside for any chance at recognition.
Bottom line: Non–Fiction is probably a non-starter in the biggest awards derby.
A mashup of ghost story, exploration of grief, and psychological thriller, Olivier Assayas’s PersonalShopper ultimately achieves the word that doubles as its overall theme. It’s haunting and features a showcase performance for Kristen Stewart, who inhabits every nearly every frame of this experience.
She plays Maureen, who spends her hours picking up designer clothing and jewelry in Paris and other locales for her famous boss Kyra (Nora von Waldstätten), a royal pain in the rear who seems to be famous for just being famous. Maureen doesn’t like her occupation, but she’s also occupied by another storyline that makes her stay. Her twin brother Lewis has recently died from a heart defect that she shares. Brother Lewis was a medium and she fancies herself as somewhat of one too. Maureen stays in his expansive old house as she waits for a sign from him that he promised would materialize.
There is supernatural activity, but it’s not exactly what Maureen anticipates. And just when you think Shopper might go full ghost tale, it switches into something else. Our central character begins receiving mysterious texts from an unknown caller that are flirty, threatening, and exhilarating to her. It provides Maureen with a bizarrely exciting way to think of something other than her miserable job and grief over Lewis.
An entire middle section of PersonalShopper is solely focused on these texts. I didn’t know until now that such activity could be as thrilling as it is here. Those three little dots cause Maureen and the audience to go through a range of emotions as we await this person’s (or is it a ghost?) next move.
Shopper is mostly unpredictable as it shifts genres with little warning. The thriller aspect contains some elements you may see coming as far as certain character’s motivations, but it’s always followed by the unexpected. The ending leaves room for interpretation and I found myself happily going through its possibilities in my head.
The picture wouldn’t succeed without Stewart’s fine performance. She has to carry it considering her constant screentime. If an actor can convincingly convey an array of feelings in a brief period of time when her primary acting partner is an iPhone, that’s good work. And PersonalShopper is stylish, spooky, and sexy.
The French psychologist thriller PersonalShopper from director Olivier Assayas has hit domestic theaters in limited release this weekend. It was nearly a year ago that eyeballs first saw it at the Cannes Film Festival in 2016. Assayas was honored with the Best Director Award, which he shared with another filmmaker.
Now that stateside audiences are getting a look at it, the buzz for its star Kristen Stewart is increasing. Many critics are calling it her finest work. She plays the title character – an American working for a celebrity in Paris in this pic said to have supernatural overtones. Shopper stands at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Stewart has worked with Assayas before in CloudsofSilsMaria, which also whipped up some chatter for an Academy nod for the actress. It didn’t pan out then and may not here, but look for her name to be in the mix as the months roll along.
Blogger’s Update (11/21): Final box office numbers for the film put it at just a $901,000 opening, adding more insult to injury.
When I began writing my Oscar Watch posts several weeks ago, the general consensus was this: Damien Chazelle’s LaLaLand (based on its festival screenings) was the front runner for Best Picture. It still is. Furthermore, there was a trio of unseen contenders to upset that notion: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk.
Silence has still yet to land any eyeballs on it and remains a mystery. Fences has held industry screenings and established itself as a player in Picture and several other races. Yet for Billy, the narrative has gone in a significantly different direction.
The war drama, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, looked to be a serious awards force on paper. After all, Lee has won the Best Director statue twice for 2005’s BrokebackMountain and 2012’s LifeofPi. Both of those films were nominated for the grand prize but came up short. Two of his other efforts – 1995’s SenseandSensibility and 2000’s CrouchingTiger, HiddenDragon also nabbed Pic nods. Walk features an eclectic cast surrounding unknown Joe Alwyn in the title role that includes Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund.
And it was being touted as a potential visual marvel as Lee and his effects crew were shooting it at 120 frames per second (think super duper HD). Then something happened on the march to Academy glory… people actually saw it.
The result? Many critics were not kind to it (it’s at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes). Following its first festival exposure in New York, the Oscar fortunes took a tumble. Yet even after that, I still managed to keep it in my top 20 possibilities for a Picture nomination until yesterday. Why? On the chance that audiences would respond positively enough to it to keep it viable.
Well… that viability just took a nose dive this afternoon. Walk opened wide today and forecasts for the weekend have it grossing just $2-$3 million dollars. Let me translate: it’s bombing very, very badly.
One month ago, before anyone had seen it, Billy Lynn looked like it could receive multiple nominations come Oscar time. As of today, the highest likelihood is that it will walk away with zero.
Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk makes its way to theaters next weekend in wide release and expectations for it have been tampered down a bit. The film, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, had been looked at as a major awards contender for the bulk of 2016. After all, Lee has won the Best Director prize at the Oscars twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and it just looked the kind of picture that the Academy might take a liking to. Newcomer Joe Alwyn stars in the title role alongside a stellar supporting cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin.
Walk has also received significant publicity to the manner in which it was shot at 120 frames per second (translate that to very high definition). Yet something unexpected happened when this screened at the New York Film Festival nearly a month ago. Critics were sharply divided as to both its dramatic and visual quality. In fact, it stands at just 50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Any chances of it being an Oscar force pretty much fell along the wayside.
So where does that leave its box office prospects? Quite simply, shakier than before the buzz unfolded. If this had the aura of an Academy hopeful, it could certainly boost its grosses. Then there’s even the matter of another more critically lauded war drama having opened just two weeks prior – Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge.
The film is reportedly rolling out on a low 800 screens which would limits its prospects. Add all that up and I believe Halftime will see a debut below $10 million for just a so-so start.
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
For my Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them prediction, click here:
Thursday has arrived and that means a fresh round of Oscar predictions in the 8 biggest categories! The major development this week? The announcement that Viola Davis will compete in Supporting Actress for Fences instead of lead. I’ve had Davis firmly at #3 for weeks on my Best Actress board, but this news puts her at #1 in the supporting race. I’m also growing more confident that both Moonlight (which had a scorching debut in limited release) and Loving will make it into Best Picture and they both rise up in this week’s rankings.
Please note – this will be the final week of predicting 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 predictions in the other races. Starting next week as November arrives, it’ll be whittled down to 20 in Picture and 10 in the others.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Jackie (PR: 5)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 10)
9. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 18)
14. Sully (PR: 14)
15. Live by Night (PR: 13)
16. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 15)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
19. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
20. Allied (PR: 21)
21. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Passengers (PR: 24)
23. Gold (PR: 22)
24. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 23)
25. 13th (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 10)
13. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 12)
15. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ana DuVernay, 13th
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 10)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 14)
13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 9)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
12. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
14. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Fences (competing in Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 7)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: Not Ranked, listed in Lead Actress)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
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