The Venice Film Festival is officially underway so you better get used to reading my Oscar Predictions posts for quite a few features. The Italian fest opened with a Spanish picture – Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers.
Early word-of-mouth is strong with critics saying this is one of the auteur’s most serious and satisfying offerings. The film stars Penelope Cruz in a tale of the trials and tribulations for two expectant women (the other being the teenaged Milena Smit).
Almodovar is no stranger to Oscar attention. Three of his efforts (1988’s Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, 1999’s All About My Mother, 2019’s Pain and Glory) all received nods in Best International Feature film. Mother won.
As for Cruz, three of her performances have been recognized by the Academy: her supporting turns in 2008’s Vicky Christina Barcelona (which she took gold for) and 2009’s Nine. Her sole lead nod was in 2006’s Volver, which was made by Almodovar.
The question is: will a fourth nomination come for the director and his star? I’m assuming Spain will make Mothers their selection and it stands an excellent chance at inclusion in the foreign field (I highly doubt Best Picture will happen). Original Screenplay is also a major possibility.
With Cruz, it’s murkier. Two years ago, the filmmaker’s lead Antonio Banderas picked up a Best Actor spot for Pain and Glory. My hunch is that Cruz’s opportunity for #4 will be dependent on what follows at Venice, other festivals, and forthcoming pictures in the next four months. Competition is expected to be steep. Jennifer Hudson in the already out Respect could make the cut. And there’s a bunch of hopefuls waiting in the wings, including but certainly not limited to Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).
Bottom line: Parallel Mothers could be expecting some attention at Oscar time, but other competitors will determine its chances beyond the international race. My Oscar Prediction posts for 2021 titles will continue…
For those who don’t follow the Oscar game and film festivals like I do (which is understandably most of you), this post looks to be a helpful primer on why such festivals are so important when doing predictions.
The 2021 Venice Film Festival kicks off tomorrow and you can anticipate plenty of Oscar speculation chatter on the blog in the next several days. You may ask – why is this Italian extravaganza so key in determining how this year’s awards landscape may look?
Let’s look at just the past five years as prologue. Of the 43 features nominated for Best Picture from 2016-2020, 31 were originally screened at the various high-profile festivals. There were six from Sundance and four each premiered at Telluride, Toronto and Cannes (with one emanating from the New York Film Festival). Eleven had their start in Venice. That’s right. Essentially one in four. That means that, lately, the average year has seen two to three BP nominees coming from this one event.
Of the last five Best Picture winners, all of them kicked off at a festival. 1 from Telluride (Moonlight). 1 from Toronto (Green Book). 1 from Cannes (Parasite). Two from Venice: The Shape of Water and last year’s Nomadland.
How about the acting derbies? Of the 20 winners in Actor, Actress, and the supporting fields from 2016-2020, only two were performances that did not come from a festival screened film. There’s 1 from Cannes. Three each from Telluride and Toronto. Four from Sundance. And seven from Venice.
This is why the titles hitting Venice in 2021 currently hold lofty positions with prediction makers like myself. It’s why Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog took over House of Gucci (not currently slated for a fest) at the #1 slot in my BP rankings. This explains why I’m keeping a close eye on pics like Dune, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Spencer, and Last Night in Soho. Maybe Spencer won’t win Best Picture, but it could nab Kristen Stewart her first nomination and victory.
Of course, only the screenings themselves will demonstrate the viable contenders. Yet there’s a recent history proving that Venice has become the most important festival of all. Ask the makers of Nomadland and The Shape of Water. Or Emma Stone (La La Land), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), or Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) to name just some.
My coverage of the Venice Film Festival begins tomorrow!
The Venice Film Festival kicks off on Wednesday this week. For this blogger, it means my Oscar speculation will kick into overdrive. You can anticipate a flurry of Oscar Watch posts starting September 1st and continuing throughout the month as the Telluride fest transpires over Labor Day weekend. Toronto is right behind beginning September 9th.
To put it all in perspective, the eventual Best Picture winner has premiered at this trio of festivals more often than not lately. Nomadland (last year’s victor) started off in Venice and won the Golden Lion, which is the equivalent to BP. The same narrative holds true for 2017’s The Shape of Water. 2018’s Green Book debuted at Toronto. 2016’s Moonlight premiered at Telluride. 2015’s Spotlight rolled out at Venice and 2014’s Birdman opened that festival. You get the idea.
So what are the highest profile titles jockeying for position? What are the movies that could become instant hopefuls for the Academy’s attention? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look, shall we?
The Power of the Dog
In 1993, director Jane Campion had her last major Oscar contender with The Piano. It won Best Actress for Holly Hunter, Supporting Actress for Anna Paquin, and Original Screenplay for Campion. She became the first female ever to be nominated for Best Director (losing that race and Picture to Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List).
Her latest is The Power of the Dog and it will be a mainstay on the festival circuit before its theatrical release in November that’s followed by an early December Netflix bow. Dog is, on paper, the film that prognosticators like me are looking at as an early favorite.
In my previous weekly rankings, I have Dog listed at #1 in Picture, Director, Actor (Cumberbatch), and Adapted Screenplay. Dunst and Plemons are, respectively, ranked second in Supporting Actress and Actor.
We will know quite soon whether it lives up to the hype.
Parallel Mothers
Pedro Almodovar’s latest will open the proceedings on Tuesday. The Spanish language drama stars Penelope Cruz and she could be a factor in what appears to be a potentially crowded Best Actress derby. Original Screenplay and Best International Feature Film could also be races where it contends. Just two years back, the auteur’s previous work Pain and Glory was nominated in the international competition and it nabbed Antonio Banderas a Best Actor nod.
Additionally, Cruz and Banderas star in the comedy Official Competition, which is also premiering here. It may also be one to keep an eye on.
Spencer
Speaking of that Best Actress race which features numerous players, that holds true with Spencer. Pablo Larrain’s biopic about Princess Diana may propel Kristen Stewart to her first nomination. Larrain directed Natalie Portman and she made the final five as Jackie from 2016. Will Stewart break through on the awards front after a series of post Twilight acclaimed roles? The answer is coming.
The Hand of God
Another Netflix property is this Italian drama from Paolo Sorrentino, whose 2013 effort The Great Beauty dominated the foreign language races at the Oscars and Globes. His latest could be another contender and I will be keeping an eye on whether it could branch out to Best Picture (like Roma and Parasite recently did).
The Card Counter
Paul Schrader’s last pic First Reformed received an Original Screenplay nod for its filmmaker. His latest crime drama features Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, and Willem Dafoe. I haven’t had this featured at all in my weekly predictions, but a splashy Venice rollout could alter that.
Dune
The Card Counter cannot claim the title of being Oscar Isaac’s most breathlessly awaited arrival. That would be Dune from Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi epic is debuting out of competition. Originally slated for 2020, Dune could be a major awards threat in lots of categories (especially the technical ones). Whether it is Best Picture material will soon be established.
The Lost Daughter
Maggie Gyllenhaal directs Olivia Colman in the Netflix drama slated for late December. Colman has been nominated in two out of the three years at the big show. She won in 2018 for The Favourite in Best Actress and got a mention in supporting last year for The Father.
Last Night in Soho
Edgar Wright psychological horror experience features Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy (coming off her heralded role on The Queen’s Gambit). The genre is not one usually geared to Oscar love, but you never know.
The Last Duel
Ridley Scott has not one, but two competitors seeking awards attention in 2021. The most obvious is House of Gucci. The other is this historical drama with Jodie Comer (another possibility in Actress), Matt Damon, Adam Driver, and Ben Affleck. We will soon know whether Scott has two pics in the mix.
And that’s just some of what I’m watching out for, folks! Get ready as the Oscar picture should become clearer in the coming days and I’ll be here to cover it…
My weekly Oscar predictions as we close out August have a bit of a Christmas Eve feel to them. Better yet, Film Festival Eve as Venice kicks off next week where cinematic presents will be laid out for consideration. The first 2021 Oscar predictions of September will come with reviews out for major contenders, most notably Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog which currently stands at #1 in Picture and Director.
That’s not all. When I post next Thursday, there should be buzz for Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers and Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho, Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God, Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune will follow shortly after that.
Same goes for Pablo Larrain’s Spencer. That could make Best Actress a little clearer due to Kristen Stewart’s work as Princess Diana. Miss Stewart makes her first appearance in my five hopefuls in that race. This is partly due to taking Kirsten Dunst from lead to supporting. It remains to be seen where Dunst ends up. That move and her inclusion in Supporting Actress knocks out Toni Collette in Nightmare Alley.
There are other changes:
In Best Picture, I continue to tinker with the 10 spot. This week, I have vaulted Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God up 12 spots to get in the mix. Falling out is Stephen Karam’s The Humans. The switch-up also puts God in Original Screenplay over A Hero.
We have changes at #1 in both Actor and Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog tops lead and that slides Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) to 2nd. Bradley Cooper returns to first position in supporting for Soggy Bottom over Dog’s Jesse Plemons.
You can peruse all the activity below as Venice looms!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
7. Dune (PR: 6)
8. West Side Story (PR: 9)
9. CODA (PR: 8)
10. The Hand of God (PR: 22)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Humans (PR: 10)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Mass (PR: 11)
14. Belfast (PR: 14)
15. A Hero (PR: 12)
16. Flee (PR: 15)
17. Spencer (PR: 17)
18. Last Night in Soho (PR: 19)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
20. The Last Duel (PR: 25)
21. King Richard (PR: 18)
22. Parallel Mothers (PR: 21)
23. Passing (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Fran Kranz, Mass
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 14)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10)
10. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 9)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
14. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 13)
15. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 3)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
7. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
10. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
12. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
13. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
Salma Hayek, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 7)
7. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
9. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9)
11. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 13)
12. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 10)
13. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 12)
14. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
We are a mere two weeks away from the Venice Film Festival and that will be followed up in short order by Telluride and Toronto. It is then that a number of titles mentioned below will receive their first critical reactions. That will translate into whether their Oscar buzz is real or fleeting.
As for this week, there are some changes in the rankings and projections as follows:
We have ourselves a new #1 in Best Picture and Director and that is Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, supplanting Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci. The film is a mainstay on the upcoming festival circuit and it could well be Netflix’s prime contender.
The 10 spot in Best Picture has a change. I’ve soured a bit on Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. While I strongly feel it will contend in Best International Feature Film, I’m changing it out for Stephen Karam’s The Humans – the cinematic version of his acclaimed play. It jumps 11 spots to get into the BP derby. The Humans also is now forecasted for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of CODA.
Amir Jadidi’s performance in A Hero is removed from the top five in Best Actor with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) taking the slot.
After viewing CODA, I believe Troy Kotsur (playing Marlee Matlin’s randy husband) could find a way into Supporting Actor. I don’t have him in the five, but Kotsur makes his first appearance in the race at #9.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Dune (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 8)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. The Humans (PR: 21)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 11)
12. A Hero (PR: 10)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Belfast (PR: 13)
15. Flee (PR: 19)
16. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
17. Spencer (PR: 15)
18. King Richard (PR: 14)
19. Last Night in Soho (PR: 22)
20. Passing (PR: 20)
21. Parallel Mothers (PR: 17)
22. The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: 24)
24. Cyrano (PR: 18)
25. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blue Bayou
In the Heights
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 10)
12. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 11)
13. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
10. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12)
11. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
14. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
9. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 12)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
12. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 14)
13. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 10)
14. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
9. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 6)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 13)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 10)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
15. Salma Hayek, House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3)
3. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
7. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 11)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 12)
12. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 8)
13. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 15)
14. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Film festival season is approaching with Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and more. The early days of September will assist in answering plenty of questions as to the Oscar viability of several pictures.
As for this mid August timeframe, we mostly wait. However, one contender’s chances are clearer than last week. The Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, as I suspected, will not play in Best Picture. Yet the raves for Jennifer Hudson keep me believing she could make the final five in what looks to be a crowded field. Hudson remains in the four spot. The many performances left to witness will eventually answer whether she remains.
There is some movement in the other categories:
CODA was one of the acclaimed titles at Sundance and it releases on Apple TV tomorrow. Widely regarded as a crowdpleaser, I’m feeling more hopeful that it makes the top ten in BP. To make room, I’ve removed another buzzed about Sundance effort – Mass. I’ll confess that Mass is a head scratcher for me at press time. The four main leads (Jason Isaacs, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney, Martha Plimpton) will apparently all be campaigned for in the supporting fields. Dowd seems the most assured to make it, but they all could. However, both Isaacs and Plimpton are being taken out of my predicted five.
That means Toni Collette for Nightmare Alley is in over Plimpton in Supporting Actress. It felt strange not to have at least one actor from Guillermo del Toro’s upcoming pic in the mix. That could also be Rooney Mara in the same race.
In Supporting Actor, taking out Isaacs puts Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth) in. I’ve also made a switch in the #1 position. Bradley Cooper has had it the first two weeks for Soggy Bottom and now it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog.
The lead actor and screenplay derbies reflect the same five as last week.
Check out all the movement below! I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
6. Dune (PR: 5)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 11)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. A Hero (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 8)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Belfast (PR: 12)
14. King Richard (PR: 16)
15. Spencer (PR: 14)
16. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 17)
17. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Cyrano (PR: 15)
19. Flee (PR: 18)
20. Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
21. The Humans (PR: 19)
22. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Blue Bayou (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. In the Heights (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Worst Person in the World
Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
4. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 12)
11. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 11)
13. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 10)
14. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joe Wright, Cyrano
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
12. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 12)
14. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 5)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 11)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 9)
12. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
13. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 10)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
10. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
When I did my first ranked Oscar predictions in the Best Actress race on August 27, 2020 – I had Jennifer Hudson’s portrayal of Aretha Franklin in Respect ranked fifth. The biopic ended up getting delayed due to COVID. Now it’s out on Friday (August 13). My initial two weeks of Academy rankings for 2021 has had Hudson pegged in fourth while not including the film itself in the 25 possibilities for Best Picture.
The review embargo lifted this evening and… well, I might be onto something. The prevalent theory has been that Respect could be a one race player in the major categories. This is similar to what we saw two years ago when Renee Zellweger took Best Actress as Judy Garland in Judy and last year when Andra Day was nominated for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Early critical reaction is mixed though Hudson is being widely praised. It was 15 years ago that the former American Idol singer won gold in Supporting Actress for her show stopping work in Dreamgirls. She hasn’t been on the Academy’s radar since. Respect, as anticipated, could easily change that. Nothing in the write-ups indicates this will a Picture hopeful. Same goes for the supporting cast. I have had Audra McDonald in the lower rungs of possibilities in supporting for the past two weeks. Don’t expect to see her name when I update my forecast on Thursday.
Costume Design is another possibility, but don’t be surprised at all to see Hudson as the lone representation here. And that’s far from guaranteed. There’s a lot of leading performances yet to be seen that could contend: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being theRicardos), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Kristen Stewart (Spencer), and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) are just some. Emilia Jones (CODA) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) represent two turns already seen that could find themselves in the mix.
Bottom line: Hudson is absolutely more than just a little bit of a factor in this race, but we have to see what transpires over festival season and the rest of the year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As we await film festivals that will shed light on many of the pictures mentioned below, today brings us my second weekly outlook on the major Oscar categories.
So what’s happened since last Thursday? That House of Gucci trailer came out and it didn’t do anything to dissuade my feeling that it’s a contender. In fact, while I shouldn’t use trailers to judge, it was enough for me to put Jared Leto in my final five (taking out Idris Elba for The Harder They Fall).
In other developments:
A Hero is in my top 10 for Best Picture over Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. The film also is in my projections for Original Screenplay to the detriment of Blue Bayou.
CODA (which I was very tempted this week to put in BP) makes the Adapted Screenplay cut over Dune.
The Director, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actress fields remain the same – with some movement in the rankings.
By this time next week, we should have a good idea of where Jennifer Hudson’s performance in Respect stands since it releases next week. It remains in my five at spot four.
Finally, I didn’t have Matt Damon in Stillwater listed in my top 15 possibilities last week. Based on the film’s subpar box office performance and some comments that landed Damon in hot water, I don’t anticipate him surfacing at any point.
Check out all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 5)
6. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
8. Mass (PR: 7)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. A Hero (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12)
12. Belfast (PR: 9)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
14. Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Cyrano (PR: 17)
16. King Richard (PR: 20)
17. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
18. Flee (PR: 13)
19. The Humans (PR: 18)
20. Blue Bayou (PR: 19)
21. The Last Duel (PR: 21)
22. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
24. In the Heights (PR: 23)
25. Annette (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Dear Evan Hansen
Last Night in Soho
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 11)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 8)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Joe Wright, Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 7)
7. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 12)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 7)
12. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
13. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 15)
14. Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 5)
5. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 14)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, The Harder They Fall
Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 5)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 9)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ben Mendelsohn, Cyrano (PR: 10)
13. Adam Driver, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
14. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mass (PR: 1)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4)
5. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
8. Spencer (PR: 7)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9)
11. Blue Bayou (PR: 5)
12. Belfast (PR: 6)
13. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted Screenplay)
I can’t help myself. I keep doing my Oscar predictions earlier and earlier each year. Today marks the first edition of my ranked forecasts in the 8 biggest races: Picture, Director, the four acting competitions, and the two screenplay contests.
It probably stands to reason that the sooner you do projections – the more inaccurate they might be. Oh but it’s so very fun to speculate! I do like to put my initial rankings up before the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals make the picture more clear and we are only about a month from that. Those events will bring us early buzz on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Spencer, The Last Duel, The Humans, Parallel Mothers, Belfast, Dear Evan Hansen, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Last Night in Soho, and more.
This post comes about three weeks ahead of when I did this in 2020. That year, to say the least, was hard to figure out. In fact, many of the pictures and performers I had in my 2020 inaugural rankings were moved back to 2021 due to COVID delays. Think Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Respect, C’Mon C’Mon, Annette, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
So how did my first ranked predictions from 2020 pan out? My Best Picture guesstimates yielded three of the eventual nominees: winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland started out of the gate at #2 (behind Mank). Three other contenders were listed under Other Possibilities – The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not mentioned.
2 of the 5 director nominees were correctly identified: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). None of the other hopefuls (Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, or Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg) were even in Other Possibilities.
In Best Actress, I initially identified 2 – winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were Other Possibilities while Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman didn’t score a listing.
As for Actor, winner Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Gary Oldman (Mank) made my first cut. I incorrectly had Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected here instead of Supporting Actor (which he won). **This is a good time to remind you all that some of the acting contenders thought to be in lead right now will switch to supporting and vice versa. As further evidence, I had Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey) predicted in supporting, but he contended here. I did not yet have Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) or Steven Yeun (Minari) on my radar.
Two Supporting Actress players were correctly called: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Olivia Colman (The Father) with Amanda Seyfried (Mank) in Other Possibilities. No mention for the winner Youn Yun-jung in Minari or Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Per above, Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas was slotted in lead, but he emerged victorious here. My Supporting Actor picks did get 2 of 5: Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and Sacha Baron Cohen for Chicago 7. The two others (Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Paul Raci in Sound of Metal) went unnoticed at the early stage.
Just one nominee in Original Screenplay got the initial mention – Chicago 7. I did have 3 others (winner Promising Young Woman, Judas, Minari) down for Other Possibilities while Sound of Metal wasn’t mentioned. And in Adapted Screenplay, I only rightly projected Nomadland. Winner The Father, One Night in Miami, and The White Tiger were other possibilities with no mention for Borat.
Whew. OK. I’m not going through all for 2019. However, I will say my results were better two years ago with my first picks (evidence of the uncertainty of last year). The quick rundown: I got 6 of the 9 nominees in Best Picture and identified the remaining three in other possibilities. In Director, it was 4 out of 5. For Actress – 4 for 5 with the other nominee listed sixth. Actor – 3 for 5 with the two others as possibilities. The weak spot was Supporting Actress – just 1 out of 5 with 2 others as possibilities. 2 for 5 in Supporting Actor with 2 others as possibilities. 3 for 5 initially in both screenplay races.
And now we come to 2021. Will I look back next year and be happy with the accuracy or shake my head? Hopefully a mix (that’s probably the best case scenario). In about two months, I will start predictions for all categories covering feature films and whittle BP from 25 to 15 hopefuls with all others going from a projected 15 to 10.
There already was some news from when I penned my early and unranked predictions last week. David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass, with an all star cast led by Christian Bale and Margot Robbie, has reportedly moved to 2022. It was mentioned in numerous categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor – John David Washington) and it now waits its turn until next year. Same story for Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins and Blonde from Andrew Dominik.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Dune
6. Soggy Bottom
7. Mass
8. West Side Story
9. Belfast
10. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
11. A Hero
12. CODA
13. Flee
14. The French Dispatch
15. Spencer
16. Tick Tick… Boom!
17. Cyrano
18. The Humans
19. Blue Bayou
20. King Richard
21. The Last Duel
22. Dear Evan Hansen
23. In the Heights
24. Last Night in Soho
25. Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
8. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
11. Fran Kranz, Mass
12. Sian Heder, CODA
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Emilia Jones, CODA
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
12. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Will Smith, King Richard
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
12. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
13. Adam Driver, Annette
14. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
15. Nicolas Cage, Pig
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Martha Plimpton, Mass
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
5. Marlee Matlin, CODA
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing
7. Olga Merediz, In the Heights
8. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
10. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
11. Judi Dench, Belfast
12. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
13. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
14. Audra McDonald, Respect
15. Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
Last year’s Best Actress race was one of the most unpredictable and competitive in ages. Five different performers took the Oscar, Golden Globes (since they split between Drama and Musical/Comedy), SAG, and Critics Choice Award.
And, while it’s very early, 2021 appears that it could be a humdinger of a contest yet again. This is the final acting derby I am doing projections on in these initial forecasts. By far, Best Actress was the hardest one to whittle down and there were even potential contenders beyond the 15 listed that I believe could easily get into the mix.
Speaking of those earlier posts, you can peruse them here if you didn’t catch them:
When I did my inaugural 2020 posts in Actress, I correctly identified 2 of the 5 eventual nominees: winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Carey Mulligan was named in Other Possibilities while I did not yet call out Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) or Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman).
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