A Star Is Born Box Office Prediction

Riding a wave of serious Oscar buzz, A Star Is Born is unveiled in theaters next weekend. The musical romance is the third remake of the 1937 film (the last was from 1976 with Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson). It marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who also stars as an alcoholic country singer who discovers and falls for a budding superstar (Lady Gaga). Costars include Sam Elliot, Dave Chappelle, Andrew Dice Clay, and Rafi Gavron.

After premiering at the Venice Film Festival weeks ago, Star immediately garnered awards attention. With great reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), this is seen as a serious contender in a number of races including Best Picture. The performances of Cooper and Gaga have been met with raves. While she’s one of music’s biggest names, Gaga’s filmography has been limited to FX’s “American Horror Story” and Machete Kills. She seems destined to pick up an Oscar nod.

The likelihood is that Star will ride its awards chatter to solid grosses throughout the fall. How high it opens is more of a mystery. While it will almost certainly place second to Venom, the range is significant. I believe a gross of over $40 million is achievable.

A Star Is Born opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million

For my Venom prediction, click here:

Venom Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: A Star Is Born

One of the most eagerly awaited pictures has debuted at Venice today with A Star Is Born. The film is the third remake of a tale that began onscreen over 80 years ago. The 1937 version starred Janet Gaynor and Fredric March. The 1954 Star featured Judy Garland and James Mason. The 1976 version featured Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson. All three of them received multiple Oscar nominations. None of them were featured in the Best Picture race.

That is probably about to change. The 2018 Star is directed, co-written, and starring Bradley Cooper in his debut behind the camera. His acting counterpart is Lady Gaga. Early reviews have praised both of their performances and it appears very likely both will be honored in their respective lead acting races. This would obviously be Gaga’s first nomination and Cooper’s fourth after Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. Cooper may well find himself honored for his direction and Adapted Screenplay alongside Eric Roth and Will Fetters.

As for supporting players, the Academy may take notice of Sam Elliot’s work as Cooper’s older brother. Critics have also pointed out the performance of Rafi Gavron as the manager of Cooper’s troubled music superstar character.

Several down the line categories could in the mix including Cinematography, Editing, both Sound races, and Gaga’s original songs that are expected to be part of the soundtrack.

Bottom line: Another contender was born today in Venice – one with serious star power.

A Star Is Born opens domestically on October 5. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Star Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping family and faith-based audiences make the journey to The Star next weekend. The animated tale is centered around some talking animals and their adventures as the first Christmas is occurring. Some familiar faces in both the film and music world provide voices including Steven Yeun, Gina Rodriguez, Keegan-Michael Key, Tyler Perry, Kristin Chenoweth, Zachary Levi, Tracy Morgan, Anthony Anderson, Mariah Carey, Kelly Clarkson, Kris Kristofferson, Christopher Plummer, Ving Rhames, Gabriel Iglesias, Patricia Heaton, and even Oprah Winfrey.

Made for a small reported budget of just $18 million, The Star will hope to shine brightly with its intended audience before Pixar’s Coco arrives just five days later for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Prognosticating for this one is a little tricky. I could certainly see it exceeding expectations with a gross high in the teens. However, I believe a more likely scenario is an opening weekend in the lower double digits to maybe lower teens with hope that it holds over well the following holiday weekend (even with the Coco competition).

The Star opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Justice League prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/07/justice-league-box-office-prediction/

For my Wonder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/wonder-box-office-prediction/

Dolphin Tale 2 Box Office Prediction

Three years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Dolphin Tale 2 swims into theaters this Friday and will attempt a #1 opening. It’s got a very good shot. Actor turned director Charles Martin Smith is behind the camera once again and stars of Dolphin Tale Harry Connick Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman all return.

In September of 2011, the original debuted to $19.1 million on its way to a $72 million domestic gross. Those earnings were enough for Warner Bros. to green light a sequel. The big question is whether or not Dolphin Tale 2 grosses more than its predecessor and on that one, I’m skeptical. I simply don’t believe the first is beloved enough for audiences to flock to it. That being said, Dolphin Tale 2 should earn enough to get it to the #1 spot in a currently weak marketplace.

Dolphin Tale 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my No Good Deed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/no-good-deed-box-office-prediction/