Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.

2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.

James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.

Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.

Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.

A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.

With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.

Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.

Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.

I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).

That means my expanded 2005 ten consists of:

A History of Violence

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Cinderella Man

The Constant Gardner

Crash

Good Night, and Good Luck

Memoirs of a Geisha

Munich

Walk the Line

I’ll have 2004 up in short order!

Godzilla vs. Kong Review

Adam Wingard’s Godzilla vs. Kong is lighter than its MonsterVerse predecessor Godzilla: King of the Monsters from 2019. I don’t just mean lighter in tone (which it is), but actually lighter where it counts. When the two title character titans clash, we can actually see it. That’s an improvement over what transpired two years ago when Godzilla’s battles were too dimly lit or obscured by pounding rain. That’s a major plus, but not every aspect of this franchise has leveled up. The human characters are still an uninteresting and bland group. We have fine actors whose primary responsibility is to talk about the massive CGI combatants and react to what they’re doing. Their character development is a secondary consideration. That said – we’re not here for that, are we? This is the culmination of three pictures leading to a movie being named Godzilla vs. Kong and it frequently manages to deliver.

We last left King Kong in the 1970s during Kong: Skull Island and Godzilla in the aforementioned Monsters when he successfully warded off King Ghidorah and others. The fourth franchise entry picks up five years after Monsters as Kong is being monitored by Monarch on his native island. His human contact is mostly with linguist Dr. Andrews (Rebecca Hall) and her deaf adopted daughter Jia (Kaylee Hottle), who’s a native of the island. A magazine cover identifies the doctor as the “Kong Whisperer”, but it’s clearly Jia who’s found the most sincere connection with the massive ape. Also on Kong patrol is geologist Dr. Lind (Alexander Skarsgard).

While Kong is living a pretty chill existence on Skull Island, Godzilla’s fiery temper unexpectedly flares up. The not so jolly green giant has resurfaced to do lots of property destruction. His inexplicable attitude adjustment causes the CEO of APEX (Demian Bichir) to recruit Kong to solve this dilemma. APEX is a big shadowy corporation that sells itself as trying to solve the Titans problem. That doesn’t gel with conspiracy theorist Bernie (Brian Tyree Henry) and he’s got sympathizers with Madison Russell (Millie Bobby Brown, returning from Monsters) and her nerdy buddy Josh (Julian Dennison). Madison’s dad, played by Kyle Chandler, also reprises his Monsters role.

Enough with the plot which also involves specialized vehicles zooming through gravity fields. All of this is a prelude to watching Godzilla and Kong fight. It happens early (no shades of the slow buildup of 2014’s Godzilla) and round 1 transpires on water and is gloriously lighted for our entertainment.

The main event is in Hong Kong and that’s when we learn why Godzilla is being so irritable (hint: corporate greed is a factor). The climactic matchup is preceded by some fairly dull scenes with humans. No performance is bad. They’re just inconsequential with the exception of Hottle’s Jia in a winning performance. As long as we’re able to ignore the poor people in the buildings that are demolished with Kong and Godzilla’s every twitch and stumble, these skirmishes are expertly staged and enjoyable. I’d put it a notch below 2014’s Godzilla stand-alone from Gareth Edwards, but a hair above Kong: Skull Island and certainly ahead of Monsters. This delivers on its title well enough and is lit properly.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Godzilla vs. Kong

While domestic audiences (via the theater or HBO Max) are about to find out who wins the epic showdown titled Godzilla vs. Kong, there is no doubt which creature holds the advantage with Oscar voters. It opens Wednesday and the review embargo is up as of today. The Adam Wingard directed monster mash currently holds an 81% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That’s currently above the three other titles in the MonsterVerse franchise: 2014’s Godzilla (76%), 2017’s Kong: Skull Island (75%), and 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters (42%).

Now you may be thinking that no movie with Godzilla or Kong in the title has been nominated for Best Picture and it won’t start now. You would be 100% correct. The real question is whether this shows up in the 2021 derby for Best Visual Effects. In that space, our massive gorilla holds a distinct advantage. The 1976 remake of King Kong won a special Academy Award for its visuals and the 2005 remake won Visual Effects outright when it became its own category. In the current MonsterVerse, Kong: Skull Island landed a nomination in the race (losing to Blade Runner 2049). As for Godzilla, the last three American produced iterations (1998 and 2014’s Godzilla and its 2019 sequel) garnered a grand total of zero nods for its effects.

There are likely to be a number of spectacles this year that could contend in VE (several of them pushed back from 2020) so competition will be fierce. Yet Kong has shown his prowess in getting Academy members to notice him and perhaps he can bring his nemesis along for the ride. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Godzilla vs. Kong Box Office Prediction

The fourth film in the MonsterVerse franchise stomps into theaters and HBO Max on Wednesday (March 31) with Godzilla vs. Kong. Adam Wingard takes the directorial reigns with a cast including Alexander Skarsgard, Millie Bobby Brown, Rebecca Hall, Brian Tyree Henry, Eiza Gonzalez, Kyle Chandler, and Demian Bichir. Of course, the real stars are the giant green monster (from 2014’s Godzilla and 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters) and massive gorilla (of 2017’s Kong: Skull Island) who will duke it out in the production with a budget reportedly in the $200 million range.

This awaited matchup was originally set for viewing last spring before going through the now familiar myriad of delays due to COVID-19. It’s the latest example of Warner Bros. unveiling their pics simultaneously in multiplexes and HBO’s streaming service. With theaters in New York and Los Angeles now operating (albeit in diminished capacity) and with vaccinations rising, Godzilla vs. Kong is being seen as a major test for the industry. The previous COVID era highest opening weekend belongs to Wonder Woman 1984 (another WB/HBO Max venture) at $16.7 million over this past Christmas. That number exceeded expectations and the thought is that Kong will outpace it.

I tend to agree. It is worth noting that the last MonsterVerse title, King of the Monsters, was a box office disappointment. Due partly to poor reviews, it premiered in late May 2019 to a subpar $47 million with an eventual domestic gross just north of $100 million. By comparison, 2014’s Godzilla took in $200 million while Kong: Skull Island made $168 million. A $47 million debut here would be beyond even the wildest expectations in these Coronavirus times.

Godzilla vs. Kong has the benefit of bringing these two iconic creatures together and that’s a significant selling point. It’s also the kind of epic production that many may wish to see on a giant screen as opposed to on their couch via HBO Max (though I’m sure plenty of moviegoers will go that route).

With a five-day rollout, I believe a Friday to Sunday haul in the $20 million range is possible with mid to high 20s overall for the entire frame.

Godzilla vs. Kong opening weekend prediction: $21.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Unholy prediction, click here:

The Unholy Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: Mortal Engines

The big-budget dystopian adventure Mortal Engines is out next weekend and signs are pointing to a sub par performance at the box office. While it’s directed by first timer Christian Rivers, it comes from the writing team of Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens. This is the trio behind the Lord of the Rings and Hobbit franchises, as well as 2005’s King Kong remake.

Those pictures have a slew of technical Oscar nominations and wins to their credit. So it’s worth wondering if Engines could compete in some of those races. Unlike most of the aforementioned pics, reviews are not strong here with a current rating of 38% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Visual Effects and the two sound categories could potentially be in play.

My feeling is that only Visual Effects is possible and that could be a stretch. MCU titles Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther likely have their spots reserved with a third (AntMan and the Wasp) in the mix. Disney also has Mary Poppins Returns and Solo: A Star Wars Story competing. Other serious contenders include First Man and Ready Player One.

Bottom line: I wouldn’t completely dismiss Engines as a contender for Visual accolades, but don’t count on it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Ready Player One Movie Review

In a time when much of our popular entertainment is now made by 1980s kids who worshipped at the altar of Steven Spielberg and others, Ready Player One often feels like a loving homage to the product he made. Except it’s made by Spielberg himself and based on a 2011 Ernest Cline novel that also placed Spielberg’s works among its many cultural references. Such an experience runs the considerable risk of collapsing upon itself in a meta avalanche. Yet there’s a reason Spielberg is considered the best in the blockbuster game and he mostly avoids the potential self congratulating pitfalls here. It doesn’t belong in the same stratosphere as his most delicious popcorn offerings, but it contains enough sweetness and eye-popping visuals to be reasonably filling.

We begin in the dystopian future of 2045 where the majority of the Earth’s populace lives in slum conditions. Wade Watts (Tye Sheridan) is among them. He’s an 18-year-old in Columbus, Ohio with deceased parents and a sad life living with his trashy aunt. Wade’s existence matches that of many and their only refuge from squalor is The OASIS. That’s a virtual reality world created by the late James Halliday (Mark Rylance), an eccentric developer whose nostalgic tastes inform his fantasy universe. Those preferences include a whole slew of 80s flicks and tunes and more. Players can select alternate identities when they slap on the VR goggles. Wade takes on the persona of Parzival and he cruises around in the iconic DeLorean from Back to the Future. Wade/Parzival isn’t just a run of the mill player. He’s a good one. And he’s among a small group of high level participants known as Gunters.

Following Halliday’s death, it’s revealed he hid an Easter egg in the OASIS and the first player to find it will inherit control of the whole shebang. Wade has noble intentions should he win. So does Art3mis (Olivia Cooke), an expert gamer who attracts Wade’s admiration and his heart. There’s also those who want control of this trillion-dollar game for more devious purposes. That includes Sorrento (Ben Mendelsohn), corporate overlord of IOI (Innovative Online Industries). That conglomerate envisions total control of this product and go to dangerous lengths to prevent ace players like Parzival and Art3mis from succeeding.

Ready Player One quickly establishes this dense new world to us without making it seem too complicated. We quickly accept the dual nature of these heroes and villains in the depressed looking capital of Ohio and the shimmering alternate reality of the OASIS. In the latter, players can become whoever they want and the programmers can insert anyone in. That allows a lot of references to characters we’ve seen elsewhere. If you have ever imagined King Kong, The Iron Giant, and the murderous Chucky doll in the same feature, your wish is granted.

Much of this is an excuse for dazzling adventure sequences and many of them truly are. There’s a notable horror pic that is the centerpiece of a key scene. Going much more into it would feel like spoiler territory, but I’ll say it’s a pretty amazing highlight. Some of the battles take on a sameness vibe eventually, but the OASIS is consistently a visual wonder to behold.

Leads Sheridan and Cooke are both stellar. Rylance and Simon Pegg as Halliday’s former business partner are memorable. Mendelsohn (as he did in Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) brings a satisfying  sinister turn as the bad guy.

Spielberg’s classics have become so because of their heart. Ready Player One is not a classic, but there are moments when the beats of them are well replicated. The picture may be best appreciated by an audience whose nostalgia glasses are usually half full. I’m among them. While you might be watching closely for pop culture references, there’s an overall message of balance between adoration of the past and appreciating the present. The director behind the camera here is deservedly revered for his great past, but he can still provide the goods presently.

*** (out of four)

Kong: Skull Island Box Office Prediction

The most famous ape in movie history in back on screen for the first time in over a decade when Kong: Skull Island debuts next weekend. With a reported $190 million budget, Warner Bros. is hoping to keep their monster franchise reaping big grosses as they move toward a planned Godzilla/Kong pic.

Jordan Vogt-Roberts directs and he’s certainly an interesting choice as his only feature was the low-budget indie The Kings of Summer in 2013. The director may not be high-profile, but the cast is. Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman, John C. Reilly, Jing Tian, Toby Kebbell, Corey Hawkins, and Jason Mitchell headline. Even with those recognizable names, the real star is that giant CG creature that first graced the screen almost 85 years ago.

Kong is not expected to match the earnings of the Godzilla reboot three years ago. It had a plum summer release date and made over $90 million out of the gate. Competition from the second weekend of the acclaimed Logan could also hinder this a bit.

I expect this will hover right above or below $50 million and word of mouth will determine how it goes from there.

Kong: Skull Island opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million