The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.
Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Manchester by the Sea
Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or Hacksaw Ridge to get in.
BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
20th Century Women
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
Potential Surprise: Captain Fantastic managing to get recognized.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences
Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.
Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for The Founder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson
Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial
Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Susan Sarandon, The Meddler
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Alternate: Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded The Edge of Seventeen.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Issey Ogata, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or Bleed for This.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Alternate: Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in Other People making the cut.
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…