Marking the directorial debut of Kane Parsons and based on his viral creepypasta phenomenon, horror pic Backrooms is expected to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell fill out the cast.
With 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 76 Metacritic, reviews are generally being kind. Unlike other recent genre titles (hello unexpected box office juggernaut and critical darling Obsession), this is not expected to be talked about for major awards. On the other hand, the plot revolves around the sets and that’s where Academy voters could consider this for a Production Design nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions asweekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.
Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.
That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.
Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.
As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.
Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:
1. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $57 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
4. Michael
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. The Breadwinner
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
Box Office Results (May 22-25)
The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.
Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.
Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.
The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.
Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.
Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.
Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.
A24 looks to achieve its largest opening weekend yet when Backrooms arrives on May 29th. Based on his own highly popular web series, Kane Parsons directs the sci-fi horror flick. Chiwetel Ejiofor leads a cast that includes Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell.
With James Wan, Shawn Levy, and Osgood Perkins among the producers, this looks to capitalize on its YouTube source material which boasts nearly 80 millions views. In order to set a record premiere for its distributor, Backrooms would need to top the $27 million that last December’s Marty Supreme started with.
Even though its earnings might be front-loaded, my hunch is that this has a better shot at exceeding expectations than going under them. I think mid to high 50s is doable and that would give it the #1 spot over The Mandalorian and Grogu and Obsession.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 