Oscar Predictions: Resident Evil

Before this week, the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among the seven Resident Evil pictures belonged to 2016’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter at a whopping 37%. Of course, it was not the final chapter for the video game based franchise. Zach Cregger’s reboot opens this weekend where Evil is expected to post good grosses. Austin Abrams stars with a supporting cast including Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, and Paul Walter Hauser.

To say the Tomato record is broken is understatement as it sports 96% with Metacritic at 80 (Final Chapter also held the MC best at 49). Cregger’s predecessor Weapons was an unexpected summer smash in 2025 that won Amy Madigan a Supporting Actress Oscar as the witchy Aunt Gladys. The pic itself likely came close to nabbing Best Picture and Original Screenplay mentions.

Evil is not your typical awards player though Makeup & Hairstyling and Visual Effects are at least worthy of bringing up. Weapons might’ve come close to getting in for the latter. Despite the much better than expected critical reaction, I doubt this gets in those tech competitions but the shortlists will be worth monitoring down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Resident Evil Box Office Prediction

Adapted from the video games that kicked off 30 years ago, Resident Evil is rebooted for the second time on the big screen starting September 18th. It has the advantage of being directed by Zach Cregger. His Barbarian was a critical favorite in 2022 followed by the massive box office success ($150 million) of Weapons last year. Austin Abrams (who memorably appeared in Weapons) stars alongside Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, and Paul Walter Hauser.

Starting in 2002, Milla Jovovich headlined six Evil entries. The top opener was #4, Resident Evil: Afterlife and it took in $26 million for starters. Three others (parts 2, 3, 5) managed $20M+ out of the gate. However, audiences weren’t checking in by part 6 (The Final Chapter) which premiered with $13 million.

2021’s reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City brought the pics to new lows with a debut just north of $5 million and $17 million overall stateside (both easy franchise lows). The tide should turn here in major fashion for the action horror series.

In a best case scenario, Cregger’s participation and a hunger from genre fans for fresh product could not only set an Evil best for opening weekends. That shouldn’t be an issue. This has the possibility of grossing $60M+ from Friday to Sunday and that would be more in three days than any Evil movie has made domestically in total. I think mid 50s is where it lands but don’t be too afraid to consider the over.

Resident Evil opening weekend prediction: $55.8 million

Oscar Predictions: Mercy

Out this weekend, Chris Pratt is a cop on trial for murder with Rebecca Ferguson as his AI judge in Timur Bekmambetov’s sci-fi thriller Mercy. The Amazon MGM offering hopes to be the first 2026 title to debut at #1. Costars include Kali Reis, Annabelle Wallis, Chris Sullivan, and Kylie Rogers.

With Oscar nominations due tomorrow morning, January usually provides some titles that won’t be in contention for the next ceremony. This appears to be no exception with a troubling 21% on Rotten Tomatoes and 35 Metacritic. The only category worth mentioning is Visual Effects where Pratt has had a presence with the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise. Same goes for Ferguson with the two Dune‘s and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning. The subpar reviews indicate that isn’t realistic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mercy Box Office Prediction

Originally slated for release last summer, Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson headline Amazon MGM’s sci-fi action pic Mercy on January 23rd. Directed by Timur Bekmambetov (Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, the recently lambasted Ice Cube version of War of the Worlds), costars include Annabelle Wallis, Kylie Rogers, Kali Reis, and Chris Sullivan.

Despite their combined participation in mega-franchises Guardians of the Galaxy, Jurassic World, Mission: Impossible, and Dune, this pairing of Pratt and Ferguson seems like it just as easily could have premiered on a streaming service. Pratt has gone that route recently with The Tomorrow War and The Electric State. Buzz is far from electric. Forecasts have this in the low double digits and I’m not confident it even gets there.

Mercy opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million

Oscar Predictions: Rebuilding

Josh O’Connor is already an Emmy winner as a young Prince Charles from Netflix’s The Crown. He’s recently had acclaimed roles in La Chimera and Challengers and probably isn’t far away from his first silver screen awards bait role. Could that be Rebuilding?

Max Walker-Silverman’s drama casts O’Connor as a rancher displaced by wildfires. Costars include Meghann Fahy, Kali Reis, Lily LaTorre, and Amy Madigan. Reviews out of Sundance screenings are positive at 94% on RT and 76 on Metacritic. Some notices are strong enough that I wonder whether this could be an awards player with the right campaign. The timely nature of the subject matter should additionally be taken into consideration.

That chatter could extend to O’Connor and the lauded cinematography (a similar combo to Train Dreams which was also unveiled in Park City). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…