97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 4th Edition

Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.

That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.

The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.

Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.

Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.

Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)

13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)

16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)

19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)

20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)

22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)

24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The End

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress

Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)

11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The End

Barry Keoghan, Bird

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)

9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

8. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Collaboration (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Here (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Actor

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 23rd Edition

It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.

Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?

I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).

As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?

Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two over McQueen.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)

17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)

18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)

21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)

24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bird

Kinds of Kindness

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Maria

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George MacKay, The End

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)

11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. The End (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Dídi (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Maria (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Queer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Fire Inside (PR: 10 (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Here (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Inside Out 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Actor (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Small Things like These

96th Academy Awards FINAL Nominations Predictions

Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.

And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.

The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Color Purple

2nd Alternate: Saltburn

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives

2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

1st Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

2nd Alternate: Julianne Moore, May December

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

1st Alternate: Maestro

2nd Alternate: Air

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Origin

Best International Feature

Fallen Leaves

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

Tótem

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Taste of Things

2nd Alternate: The Teachers’ Lounge

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Suzume

1st Alternate: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2nd Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

20 Days in Mariupol

Beyond Utopia

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

1st Alternate: American Symphony

2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

Best Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Barbie

2nd Alternate: El Conde

Best Costume Design

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Napoleon

2nd Alternate: Maestro

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Barbie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Society of the Snow

2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Best Original Score

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

Best Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Asteroid City

Best Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Best Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem

96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).

And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.

In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.

An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.

Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)

Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)

Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)

Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Suzume (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Peasants (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wish (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)

7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)

8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)

Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)

10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)

Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)

Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)

Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Past Lives

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

29th Critics Choice Awards Predictions

On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.

Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!

Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Actress

Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Acting Ensemble

Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)

PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Comedy

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: American Fiction

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish

PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Cinematography

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Editing

Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Makeup

Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla

PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Production Design

Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Score

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Song

Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

That works out to the following wins for these movies:

6 Wins

Barbie, Oppenheimer

3 Wins

The Holdovers

2 Wins

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Win

Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things

30th Annual SAG Awards: Nominations Reaction

A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.

I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

How I Did: 3/5

A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).

While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 4/5

Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/5

Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

How I Did: 3/5

This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

How I Did: 3/5

This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.

You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!

96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 6th Edition

We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.

As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.

You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.

You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)

2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Society of the Snow

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godland

The Monk and the Gun

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Suzume (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wish (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

American Fiction

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things

81st Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

In addition to moving to CBS, the 81st Golden Globe Awards also moves to six nominees in their cinematic races this Sunday. Jo Koy hosts the 81st annual telecast with what could be the Barbenheimer broadcast.

There’s a new category via Cinematic and Box Office Achievement with its eight contenders (the rest have the aforementioned six as opposed to a previous quintet).

Readers of the blog know that I spend a whole lot of space speculating on the Oscars. Not so much with the Globes, but I’ll make some quick observations before making my picks along with a runner-up selection.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s divide of Drama and Musical & Comedy indeed allows Oppenheimer and Barbie to both emerge as victors. The latter seems highly likely to take Musical/Comedy while Oppenheimer faces stiff competition from Killers of the Flower Moon.

In the acting categories, we could find out if certain performers begin a run of domination. This includes Bradley Cooper (Maestro) or Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) for Actor, Lily Gladstone (Killers) or Emma Stone (Poor Things) in Actress, Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) for Supporting Actor, and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) or Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in Supporting Actress.

Of course, we can always count on surprises from the Globes. Let’s get to the predictions and I’ll have a recap up after the show!

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Best Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)

PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

PREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Barbie

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Past Lives

Best Non-English Language Motion Picture

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: Past Lives

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish

PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

That means that I am picking a Barbenheimer heavy program with these movies winning these numbers of Globes:

5 Wins

Oppenheimer

4 Wins

Barbie

2 Wins

The Holdovers

1 Win

Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.

In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.

I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)

10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 17th Edition

My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.

In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.

Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.

You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Iron Claw

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fair Play

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

20 Days in Mariupol

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wish (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. American Symphony (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Every Body (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orlando, My Political Biography

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. El Conde (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Killer (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wonka (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nyad (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Golda (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)

8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire

Killers of the Flower Moon

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

May December

2 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka

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