Labor Day Box Office Prediction

After it played the film festival circuit last fall it became clear Jason Reitman’s Labor Day was not going to be the awards contender the studio hoped for. Starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin, the pic generated mostly positive but unspectacular reviews. It was given a late qualifying limited run for Oscar consideration and ignored.

Director Reitman is mostly known for comedic dramas like Juno, Up in the Air, and Young Adult. This one is on the more serious side and Paramount is hoping the romantic plot between its stars will bring females out. Labor Day may follow in the direction of another Winslet drama that the Academy mostly ignored five years ago – Revolutionary Road. That title only managed $22 million domestically in its entire run. And it had Kate’s Titanic costar Leonardo DiCaprio in it.

Labor Day is opening on over half as many screens as Road did so its opening weekend should top the $5 million that it managed. However, passing double digits seems unlikely to me though it should come close.

Labor Day opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million

For my prediction on That Awkward Moment, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/that-awkward-moment-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Oldboy Box Office Prediction

Unless I’m really missing something here, Spike Lee’s Oldboy starring Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson seems to be flying in way under the radar to an extent that I did not expect.

When this project was announced, this remake of a 2003 South Korean critically acclaimed cult favorite looked like it could be a high-profile fall release. However, Film District and Universal seem to have very little confidence in it. The marketing campaign has been muted and no mainstream reviews have been released at press time. If anything, its tepid marketing campaign reminds me of Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, another flick I thought would be more highly touted than it was. It ended up earning a paltry $7.8 million in its debut. Added to that, Oldboy is only being released on roughly 500 screens on Wednesday which will surely hinder its opening.

Add all that up and I’m not expecting a whole lot with Oldboy.

Oldboy opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $3.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Gangster Squad and Broken City Movie Reviews

January is typically seen as a dumping ground for films that studios have little confidence in. When a picture opens in the first month of the year with big stars, that can usually be seen as a red flag. And so it is with Gangster Squad and Broken City, which both opened in January to disappointing box office results. Audiences got it right here – they’re both forgettable titles that don’t deserve the considerable talent involved.

Gangster Squad is from Zombieland director Ruben Fleischer and takes place in Los Angeles circa 1949 when gangster Mickey Cohen (Sean Penn) has taken over the city with his particularly deadly Mob tactics. A straight-laced Sergeant (Josh Brolin) is enlisted by the police chief (Nick Nolte) to form a squad to take Mickey out and restore order at any cost. Brolin enlists lots of recognizable actors to help in the cause, from Ryan Gosling to Giovanni Ribisi to Michael Pena to Robert Patrick to Anthony Mackie.

The pic is a highly stylized exercise whose tone is closer to The Untouchables than other genre entries. The difference? The Untouchables was really good and effective. Squad feels unoriginal and derivative. Sure, it looks good, but you won’t remember much about it the morning. Most of the actors try their best, but they have skimpy material to work with.

Among the issues I had: we get a romance between Gosling’s character and Mickey’s girlfriend, played by Emma Stone. As you will recall, Gosling and Stone had major chemistry in 2011’s romantic comedy Crazy Stupid Love. Here, their relationship is underwritten and dull and it left me wishing I was watching their previous movie. Sean Penn, one of the finest actors of his generation, goes way over the top as Mickey. Also, his make-up job is pretty ridiculous. Brolin’s character is a bit of a bore and ultra cliched. He even comes with the pregnant wife whose character is straight outta Screenwriting 101.

Gangster Squad wants to bash us over the head with its excessive violence, but never bothers to give us interesting, well-written characters to get involved with. Director Fleischer showed tremendous promise with the original Zombieland. This movie doesn’t have an original idea or thought in its head.

Gangster Squad: ** (out of four)

Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe headline Broken City from director Allen Hughes (who co-directed Menace II Society and From Hell with his brother). The city is New York City, where Wahlberg is an ex-cop turned private eye who’s hired by the corrupt Mayor (Crowe) to find out who his wife is sleeping with days before the Mayoral election. This leads to your usual double crosses and instances where “not all is at it seems!”.

The first hour or so of City is decent if unremarkable. Eventually, the screenplay moves toward twists and turns that rely on BIG and unbelievable conveniences, like Wahlberg finding key pieces of evidence in a dumpster where the rest of the documents are being shredded. Thank goodness they forgot to shred the most important piece of evidence!

Like Squad, the characters are poorly developed. Wahlberg’s story arc is a familiar one – he’s a cop who may or may not have shot an unarmed suspect. He had a drinking problem… wanna take bets on if he relapses? He’s conflicted about doing the right thing, yada, yada, yada…

Crowe adds some decent acting to an otherwise unremarkable character. Catherine Zeta-Jones doesn’t have much to do as his neglected wife, who may or may not be having an affair.

Broken City fails mostly because of a lackluster screenplay. Wahlberg and Crowe deserve better and director Hughes has certainly shown an ability to do far better.

Broken City: ** (out of four)

So the January curse holds true for these pictures. Are they both watchable? Sure, but with lots of end of 2012 titles just reaching home release and the summer season beginning at the multiplex, why waste your time? I just did that for you!