Todd’s Top Ten Most Eagerly Awaited Fall 2014 Movies

The summer of 2014 is heading towards its closure and that means school, football, and the Fall Movie Season is ahead of us! As many know, the months of September through December is when studios typically save up their major Oscar contenders and that is certainly the case this year. As for what’s been released pre-fall, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood is the only shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination (it could win too) while Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel currently has a decent shot.

This brings us to my personal top ten most anticipated films being released in the final four months of the year. Some of my choices are Oscar hopefuls while others are not. I’ll get to my first round of inappropriately early Academy Award nomination predictions very soon on the blog. In the meantime, here’s the pics that this blogger is most looking forward to:

10. St. Vincent

Release Date: October 24

This comedy/drama had me at the actor headlining the cast: Bill Murray. He plays an irresponsible war veteran who befriends a young boy. Melissa McCarthy and Naomi Watts costar. If it’s good, expect Oscar buzz for Mr. Murray and Ms. Watts in the Supporting Actress race.

9. The Interview

Release Date: December 25

When Seth Rogen and James Franco have teamed up, it’s led to two hilarious comedies: Pineapple Express and This is the End. Here’s hoping the trend continues where they play two journalists given the task of assassinating Kim Jong-Un.

8. Big Eyes

Release Date: December 25

Tim Burton has seemed to be on autopilot lately with lackluster pics like Alice in Wonderland and Dark Shadows. This could change that in the true life tale of a man (Christoph Waltz) who fraudulently claims credit for his wife’s (Amy Adams) bestselling paintings. Oscar buzz could follow if this one if it delivers.

**No trailer released at press time

7. Birdman

Release Date: October 17

Not a biography of the tattooed Miami Heat player – rather Birdman stars Michael Keaton in what could be a huge comeback role. He plays an actor most known for playing an iconic superhero, which shouldn’t be much of a stretch. Edward Norton, Naomi Watts, Emma Stone, and Zach Galifinakis round out the ensemble and it’s directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who brought us 21 Grams and Babel.

6. Dumb and Dumber To

Release Date: November 14

Whether or not the return of Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) nearly 20 years after the iconic original works is an open question, but you can be damn sure I’ll be in the theater to find out.

5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1

Release Date: November 21

Catching Fire improved upon an already first-rate original in the franchise so I’m pumped to see the series continue. It also serves as one of our final opportunities to see the great Philip Seymour Hoffman.

4. Inherent Vice

Release Date: December 12

Anytime Paul Thomas Anderson makes a film, it’s noteworthy given his filmography includes Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, and The Master. This private detective tale stars Joaquin Phoenix, Josh Brolin, Owen Wilson, and Reese Witherspoon.

**No trailer released at press time

3. Foxcatcher

Release Date: November 14

Director Bennett Miller has seen both his features, Capote and Moneyball, earn Best Picture nominations. Advance word is that this will as well. The true story of John du Pont’s (Steve Carell) obsession with a pair of wrestlers (Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo) is generating Academy Award chatter for all three actors.

2. Gone Girl

Release Date: October 3

One of the very best directors working today David Fincher adapts Gillian Flynn’s bestselling murder mystery novel. Ben Affleck, Rosamund Pike (in a role likely to earn Oscar buzz), Tyler Perry, and Neil Patrick Harris star.

1. Interstellar

Christopher Nolan has given us the acclaimed Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. In his latest, recent Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey is tasked with no less than saving the world. Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and (of course) Michael Caine costar. Expect amazing visuals at the very least.

And that’s my top ten, folks. See you at the movies!

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For Box Office Prediction

Nearly ten years after its predecessor performed solidly at the box office, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For makes it theatrical debut Friday. Original directors Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller are back behind the camera, based on Miller’s work from his acclaimed graphic novel. Several stars of the 2005 pic return – including Jessica Alba, Bruce Willis, Rosario Dawson, Mickey Rourke, Powers Boothe and Jaime King. Newcomers to the sequel include Joseph Gordon Levitt, Josh Brolin, Lady Gaga, Dennis Haysbert, Christopher Lloyd, Ray Liotta, and Jeremy Piven.

It was the spring of 2005 when Sin City did great business of the gate domestically with $29 million. However, it would suffer large declines in subsequent weekends and its final gross was a respectable $74 million. The big question is whether too much time has passed for audiences to really be clamoring for a sequel?

I have my doubts. The original was mostly well-received and there will be some who are excited to see it (myself included). However, the near decade long wait makes it unlikely that Dame will approach the performance of the first. I would be surprised if it exceeds $25 million in its debut and believe a high teens to low 20s debut is more likely.

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million

For my If I Stay prediction, click here:

If I Stay Box Office Prediction

For my When the Game Stands Tall prediction, click here:

When the Game Stands Tall Box Office Prediction

This Day in Movie History: February 12

21 years ago Today in Movie History – February 12 – the now classic comedy Groundhog Day debuted in theaters. One of the greatest uses of the brilliant talent that is Bill Murray, the film debuted at #1 with $14.6 million on its way to a $70 million domestic gross. The term “Groundhog Day” has entered the cultural vernacular as a term meaning something repeating itself. I consider it to be one of best comedies of all time.

As for birthdays, Josh Brolin is 46 today. The actor became known to filmgoers in 1985’s The Goonies. Things were quiet were for awhile following that but in the 21st century he had a massive career resurgence. His notable pictures include Grindhouse, No Country for Old Men, American Gangster, W., Milk, True Grit, Men in Black 3, Oldboy, and Labor Day.

Christina Ricci is 34 today. She became known as Wednesday Addams in the two Addams Family features. She would go onto headline kids pics such as Casper and That Darn Cat. She would soon transition into more serious fare including The Ice Storm, Buffalo ’66, The Opposite of Sex, Sleepy Hollow, Monster, and Black Snake Moan.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

Josh Brolin was in Oldboy with Samuel L. Jackson

Samuel L. Jackson was in Black Snake Moan with Christina Ricci

And that’s today – February 12 – in Movie History!

Labor Day Box Office Prediction

After it played the film festival circuit last fall it became clear Jason Reitman’s Labor Day was not going to be the awards contender the studio hoped for. Starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin, the pic generated mostly positive but unspectacular reviews. It was given a late qualifying limited run for Oscar consideration and ignored.

Director Reitman is mostly known for comedic dramas like Juno, Up in the Air, and Young Adult. This one is on the more serious side and Paramount is hoping the romantic plot between its stars will bring females out. Labor Day may follow in the direction of another Winslet drama that the Academy mostly ignored five years ago – Revolutionary Road. That title only managed $22 million domestically in its entire run. And it had Kate’s Titanic costar Leonardo DiCaprio in it.

Labor Day is opening on over half as many screens as Road did so its opening weekend should top the $5 million that it managed. However, passing double digits seems unlikely to me though it should come close.

Labor Day opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million

For my prediction on That Awkward Moment, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/that-awkward-moment-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Oldboy Box Office Prediction

Unless I’m really missing something here, Spike Lee’s Oldboy starring Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson seems to be flying in way under the radar to an extent that I did not expect.

When this project was announced, this remake of a 2003 South Korean critically acclaimed cult favorite looked like it could be a high-profile fall release. However, Film District and Universal seem to have very little confidence in it. The marketing campaign has been muted and no mainstream reviews have been released at press time. If anything, its tepid marketing campaign reminds me of Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, another flick I thought would be more highly touted than it was. It ended up earning a paltry $7.8 million in its debut. Added to that, Oldboy is only being released on roughly 500 screens on Wednesday which will surely hinder its opening.

Add all that up and I’m not expecting a whole lot with Oldboy.

Oldboy opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $3.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Gangster Squad and Broken City Movie Reviews

January is typically seen as a dumping ground for films that studios have little confidence in. When a picture opens in the first month of the year with big stars, that can usually be seen as a red flag. And so it is with Gangster Squad and Broken City, which both opened in January to disappointing box office results. Audiences got it right here – they’re both forgettable titles that don’t deserve the considerable talent involved.

Gangster Squad is from Zombieland director Ruben Fleischer and takes place in Los Angeles circa 1949 when gangster Mickey Cohen (Sean Penn) has taken over the city with his particularly deadly Mob tactics. A straight-laced Sergeant (Josh Brolin) is enlisted by the police chief (Nick Nolte) to form a squad to take Mickey out and restore order at any cost. Brolin enlists lots of recognizable actors to help in the cause, from Ryan Gosling to Giovanni Ribisi to Michael Pena to Robert Patrick to Anthony Mackie.

The pic is a highly stylized exercise whose tone is closer to The Untouchables than other genre entries. The difference? The Untouchables was really good and effective. Squad feels unoriginal and derivative. Sure, it looks good, but you won’t remember much about it the morning. Most of the actors try their best, but they have skimpy material to work with.

Among the issues I had: we get a romance between Gosling’s character and Mickey’s girlfriend, played by Emma Stone. As you will recall, Gosling and Stone had major chemistry in 2011’s romantic comedy Crazy Stupid Love. Here, their relationship is underwritten and dull and it left me wishing I was watching their previous movie. Sean Penn, one of the finest actors of his generation, goes way over the top as Mickey. Also, his make-up job is pretty ridiculous. Brolin’s character is a bit of a bore and ultra cliched. He even comes with the pregnant wife whose character is straight outta Screenwriting 101.

Gangster Squad wants to bash us over the head with its excessive violence, but never bothers to give us interesting, well-written characters to get involved with. Director Fleischer showed tremendous promise with the original Zombieland. This movie doesn’t have an original idea or thought in its head.

Gangster Squad: ** (out of four)

Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe headline Broken City from director Allen Hughes (who co-directed Menace II Society and From Hell with his brother). The city is New York City, where Wahlberg is an ex-cop turned private eye who’s hired by the corrupt Mayor (Crowe) to find out who his wife is sleeping with days before the Mayoral election. This leads to your usual double crosses and instances where “not all is at it seems!”.

The first hour or so of City is decent if unremarkable. Eventually, the screenplay moves toward twists and turns that rely on BIG and unbelievable conveniences, like Wahlberg finding key pieces of evidence in a dumpster where the rest of the documents are being shredded. Thank goodness they forgot to shred the most important piece of evidence!

Like Squad, the characters are poorly developed. Wahlberg’s story arc is a familiar one – he’s a cop who may or may not have shot an unarmed suspect. He had a drinking problem… wanna take bets on if he relapses? He’s conflicted about doing the right thing, yada, yada, yada…

Crowe adds some decent acting to an otherwise unremarkable character. Catherine Zeta-Jones doesn’t have much to do as his neglected wife, who may or may not be having an affair.

Broken City fails mostly because of a lackluster screenplay. Wahlberg and Crowe deserve better and director Hughes has certainly shown an ability to do far better.

Broken City: ** (out of four)

So the January curse holds true for these pictures. Are they both watchable? Sure, but with lots of end of 2012 titles just reaching home release and the summer season beginning at the multiplex, why waste your time? I just did that for you!