Arriving in the same mid-November frame as parts 2-5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping looks to dominate the charts beginning November 20th. Based on the Suzanne Collins novel from last year, Reaping is the sixth picture in the series and fifth in a row since 2013’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire directed by Francis Lawrence. It is a sequel to 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and prequel to 2012’s original. The cast includes Joseph Zada, Jesse Plemons, Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, Ben Wang, Kieran Culkin, Elle Fanning, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Whitney Peak, Lili Taylor, and Kelvin Harrison Jr. There’s also the reported inclusion of Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, and Woody Harrelson reprising their roles from the first four Games.

Their participation and advance ticket sales for Lionsgate has led to this being seen as more of a tentpole feature than Songbirds. Three years ago, it had the worst Hunger debut by far with $44 million on its way to a $166 million domestic total. For comparison’s sake, the Lawrence led quartet from 2012-2015 all premiered with over $100 million with the first two making north of $400 million stateside.

Reaping could see a start similar to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 from 2014 and Part 2 in 2015. They had respective openings of $121 million and $102 million. The latter figure is probably the ceiling while the floor could be around $80-85 million. I’ll say this manages nine figures for the shot in the arm that the franchise needs.

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opening weekend prediction: $104.5 million