The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.
Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.
So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.
That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.
Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.
The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.
It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).
Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.
I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.
So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).
In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.
In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.
John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.
The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.
You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)
13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)
16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)
18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)
19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)
23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)
24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Disclosure Day
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)
14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lance Oppenheim, Primetime
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack O’Connell, Ink
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Ink
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Mimesis
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hexed
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)
4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The History of Concrete
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Invite
Elsinore
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wildwood
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Whalefall
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
The Debut
6 Nominations
The Invite, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession
2 Nominations
Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.
Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.
We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.
Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.
Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.
Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.
You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)
12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)
14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)
17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)
22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)
15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)
9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)
11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.
What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.
While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.
Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Entertainment System is Down
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)
Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)
13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)
11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Adele, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)
At last month’s Cannes Film Festival, Jordan Firstman’s feature length directorial debut Club Kid was a crowd favorite that sparked a bidding war won by A24. Firstman, known best for his Instagram posts, also penned the screenplay and stars as a party promoter unexpectedly forced to grow up. The dramedy’s supporting cast includes Cara Delevingne, Diego Calva, and Reggie Absolom.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic, A24 shelled out $17 million for distribution rights with a release expected in the fall. This could be a sleeper hit with the right promotion by the parties involved. I would expect an awards campaign with the likeliest shot being Original Screenplay and Best Picture and Firstman’s lead performance as longer shots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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