Oscar Predictions: The Uprising

Paul Greengrass directed movies have occasionally resonated with the Academy from a Best Picture nom for 2013’s Captain Phillips to a directing nod for 2006’s United 93 to tech recognition for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum, 2020’s News of the World, and last year’s The Lost Bus.

The Englishman’s latest project is the 14th century set period drama The Uprising starring Andrew Garfield and featuring Jamie Bell, Stephen Dillane, Tom Hollander, Cosmo Jarvis, Thomasin McKenzie, Woody Norman, and Katherine Waterston. The Focus Features project is out this weekend where it’s expected to struggle at the box office.

It’s also unlikely to resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 54% with a 53 on Metacritic. I’m skeptical it even gets serious consideration (and may not make shortlists) for down the line categories that are friendly to the genre (Production Design, Sound, Costume Design). The Uprising faces an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Uprising Box Office Prediction

14th century set action drama The Uprising hits theaters on September 11th from Bourne franchise director Paul Greengrass. Andrew Garfield headlines a cast including Jamie Bell, Stephen Dillane, Tom Hollander, Cosmo Jarvis, Thomasin McKenzie, Jonny Lee Miller, Woody Norman, and Katherine Waterston.

The Focus Features release has recently changed its marketing to reveal itself as a Robin Hood origin tale. I’m not so sure that’ll get it any more box office bucks. Recent iterations like 2018’s Robin Hood with Taron Egerton and this year’s The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman have flopped.

I haven’t detected any momentum for The Uprising and I’m projecting mid single digits at best considering the reported 1500 screen count.

The Uprising opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million

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Oscar Predictions: Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant

Lionel Richie has received three Oscar nominations for his ditties. The filmography of Guy Ritchie has yielded one less as 2009’s Sherlock Holmes was mentioned for Art Direction and Original Score.

Guy could tie Lionel since The Covenant, his Afghanistan war drama, hits theaters this weekend. Jake Gyllenhaal headlines the director’s 14th feature which is generating mostly appreciative reviews and being commended for the restraint shown by the often flashy filmmaker. It sits at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes.

However, the spring release date for the MGM effort indicates this isn’t seen as an awards play. If you’re waiting for this to pop up in mentions during the Academy ceremony next year, you’ll probably be waiting all night long. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant finds Jake Gyllenhaal back in Jarhead territory in this war thriller. It marks Ritchie’s second release of 2023 after Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre flopped last month. Formerly titled The Interpreter, costars include Dar Salim, Alexander Ludwig, Antony Starr, Emily Beecham, and Jonny Lee Miller.

Gyllenhaal’s previous action flick was a year ago with Ambulance. It performed below expectations with an $8.6 million start. Ritchie’s aforementioned Guerre managed only $3 million in its unfortunate opening.

The Covenant doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I think it’ll have a higher premiere than the director’s last effort, but lower than its lead’s predecessor.

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

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