Tag: Jon Rudnitsky

Oscar Predictions: Wish

In 2023, Disney finds itself in the rather rare position of not having a Best Animated Feature frontrunner at the Oscars. The category started in 2001 and 15 of the 22 previous winners have been released by the Mouse House. This summer’s Elemental got decent enough reviews that it probably has a spot in the eventual five nominees.

I’m not sure the same can be said for Wish. The musical from directors Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and featuring the voices of West Side Story gold statue recipient Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine comes out over the Thanksgiving holiday. With its review embargo lifted, the Tomato meter is at only 62%. That is certainly below most Disney animated offerings and it brings awards viability into question.

In my view, Elemental (a bit fresher at 74%) is behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (definitely the favorite) and The Boy and the Heron. I still think it gets in. That leaves two spots. Wish will need to compete with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Nimona, and The Peasants to make the cut. Its legendary studio will need to work their campaigning magic to have two competitors in the race.

Wish may have a slightly better shot at Original Song with DeBose singing “This Wish”. Yet it’s quite possible that Wish could be granted zero nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Wish Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.

Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.

The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.

On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.

My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.

Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Napoleon prediction, click here:

Napoleon Box Office Prediction

Home Again Movie Review

Essentially Three Men and a Divorcée, Reese Witherspoon’s latest rom com Home Again is a bland genre exercise that struggles mightily to be relatable. The star plays Alice, the daughter of a famous deceased director and his starlet muse (Candice Bergen). The maker of this film, Hallie Meyers-Shyer, is the child of divorced writers/filmmakers Charles Shyer and Nancy Meyers. Together and apart, her folks are responsible for such rom com titles as Baby Boom, Father of the Bride, What Women Want, and Something’s Gotta Give. One wonders if Ms. Meyers-Shyer could channel that insight of growing up with her famous parents into a perceptive screenplay. I wonder because it’s not found anywhere here.

Reese’s Alice has recently separated from her music exec hubby (Michael Sheen) and lives at a gorgeous L.A. home with her two daughters. She’s just turned the big 4-0 and genre contrivances soon brings three twenty something lads into her guesthouse. They’re all aspiring filmmakers. Harry (Pico Alexander) is the handsome director. George (Jon Rudnitsky) is the teddy bear screenwriter who forms a bond with Alice’s eldest kid. Teddy (Nat Wolff) is the actor who really has no notable character traits.

Harry and Alice start a May-December romance while her ex is weighing his return home. The boys also must deal with the drama of getting their movie made and keeping their integrity intact. A lazy script would signify that integrity by making them insist on it being black and white. That’s exactly the situation here.

Home Again simply doesn’t bring anything new to the table. It is a little more frustrating considering the talent involved could have dug deeper. Witherspoon is adequate in the lead, but we’ve seen her elevate similar material and she can’t here. The story doesn’t even allow for any real chemistry to develop between Alice and Harry. The director’s parents are responsible for some of the more memorable rom coms of the last three decades. At the least, many of them qualify as genuine guilty pleasures. Here’s hoping Hallie finds a similar voice, but this is a dull beginning.

*1/2 (out of four)

Home Again Box Office Prediction

Reese Witherspoon is back in rom com territory when Home Again debuts in theaters next weekend. The Open Road Films release casts the actress as a single mom who allows three college age men to bunk at her place and hijinks and hopeful hilarity ensue. The pic marks the directorial debut of Hallie Meyers-Shyer (who also penned the screenplay), daughter of Nancy Meyers who’s made similar genre titles such as Something’s Gotta Give, The Holiday, It’s Complicated, and The Intern. Costars include Nat Wolff, Jon Rudnitsky, Pico Alexander, Michael Sheen, and Candice Bergen.

The film should have little trouble placing second on the charts after the box office juggernaut that is likely to be It. This could potentially serve as decent counter programming for female audiences who aren’t feeling the clown horror. That said, Witherspoon’s drawing power has waned a bit through the years and the actress is past the days when she experienced $30M+ openers like Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Her last headliner was the poorly reviewed Hot Pursuit, which debuted to just under $14M in the summer of 2015. She has gotten a bit of recent exposure with her Emmy nominated turn in the HBO miniseries Big Little Lies.

Besides It, it could help Home that there’s little in the way of competition. Due to that factor, I’ll say this manages to top single digits.

Home Again opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million

For my It prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/29/it-box-office-prediction/