The National Board of Review often marches to the beat of its own awards drum when it comes to selecting their annual pictures and performers. In 2014, only four of their eleven top movies ended up generating an Academy nomination for Best Picture. In the past decade, there’s been one other year with just four and three years where it was five and two where it was six. There’s three other years where it’s seven and that’s as high as it gets. In most years, NBR names a Best Film with ten other favorite movies listed alphabetically. During that time period, here’s just a sampling of NBR top films that probably never came close to an Oscar BP nod: Fury, The LEGO Movie, Hail, Caesar!, Patriots Day, Baby Driver, Downsizing, Waves, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Red Rocket, and Ferrari.
I give all that context because there were some unexpected selections in their list today… but not really given their history. Jon M. Chu’s Wicked is Best Film. That one is anticipated to generate an Academy BP slot. This particular group often goes with blockbuster material like Wicked for their winner. Recent examples include Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015 (guess we should’ve seen that Furiosa nod coming) and Top Gun: Maverick in 2022.
Some others… not so much. The other ten are as follows: Anora, Babygirl, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Juror #2, Queer, A Real Pain, and Sing Sing. Only half of those features (Wicked, Anora, Conclave, A Real Pain, Sing Sing) are currently in my Oscar BP ten. Babygirl, Furiosa, Juror #2, and Queer likely stand little chance at the big dance while A Complete Unknown and Gladiator II have better shots.
There are some notable omissions from the list like The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Dune: Part Two. That said, recent BP victors The Shape of Water, Parasite, and CODA were nowhere to be found with NBR.
The Wicked love continued in Director with Jon M. Chu being named. You have to go all the way to Martin Scorsese and 2006’s The Departed for the last NBR/Oscar match.
Nicole Kidman is your Best Actress for Babygirl and Daniel Craig is Best Actor for Queer. Both are considered bubble candidates for Oscar (I currently have Craig in and Kidman out). I will note that 8 of the last 10 NBR Actress winners have achieved an Academy spot. In Actor, it’s also 8.
Kieran Culkin racked up another Supporting Actor prize (right after the New York Film Critics Circle) for A Real Pain and Elle Fanning is Supporting Actress (a bit of an out of nowhere pick) for A Complete Unknown. The previous 10 Supporting Actor victors for NBR received Oscar attention as Culkin is expected to. For Supporting Actress, it’s 8.
In other NBR news for categories that correlate to the Academy Awards, Hard Truths and Sing Sing are your respective Original and Adapted Screenplay recipients. Flow snatched another Animated Feature trophy while The Seed of the Sacred Fig is their #1 International Feature. The Documentary prize went to Sugarcane with Nosferatu triumphant in Cinematography.
Keep an eye on this blog for all precursor Oscar chatter!
As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.
The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.
In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).
Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.
There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Nosferatu
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Grand Tour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Savages
Spellbound
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond” from Moana 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Sing Sing, The Substance
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Based on one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed theater productions from Stephen Schwartz, Wicked looks to bewitch audiences this Friday. Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu helms the reported $145 million production with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headlining. Costars include Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
Representing part 1 of the epic musical with its follow-up arriving next November, Wicked is expected to be a massive hit worldwide. With its box office fortunes appearing secure, lingering Oscar buzz was confirmed with today’s review embargo lift.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. Technical noms were always a strong possibility. Costume Design (where it could win), Makeup and Hairstyling (same), Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects are all on the table. There are no original songs so that’s off the table.
A Best Picture nod certainly seems achievable and I had it listed 8th in last weekend’s update. That still seems about right. I don’t believe it’s guaranteed a slot, but its impending popularity gives the Academy a chance to honor a crowd favorite that many viewers have actually seen. Chu’s direction and the screenplay seem far less likely to make the cut.
On the performance front, Erivo will vie for Actress with Grande contending in supporting. Best Actress is super crowded and I’m skeptical Erivo gets her second nomination behind 2019’s Harriet. Grande, meanwhile, stands a better shot even though Supporting Actress has plenty of contenders as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (11/20): I have posted a $4 million forecast for Bonhoeffer today which puts it in fourth place. That change is reflected below and we now have a top 7 projections.
Hollywood hopes for a massive box office weekend ahead as Wicked and Gladiator II look to inject $200 million or more in domestic receipts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
In July 2023, the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer occurred when Barbie soared with a $162 million starting haul while Oppenheimer took in $82 million. I don’t think the grosses will be as gargantuan with Wicked and Gladiator II, but multiplexes should be in for a much needed boost.
Wicked adapts the well-known stage musical with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as early versions of the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch from The Wizard of Oz, respectively. This is part 1 of Jon M. Chu’s fantasy musical with part II arriving in a year. I’m projecting nearly $135 million out of the gate as a wide audience seems destined to greet it.
Gladiator II is the long-in-development follow-up to Ridley Scott’s Best Picture winner with Paul Mescal headlining and Denzel Washington in an Oscar baity supporting turn. My high 60s forecast puts it in the runner-up position. I would note that either of these titles could over perform and keep on this post to see if there are any upgrades by Thursday.
With families flocking to Wicked and action fans packed for Gladiator, current champ Red One will slide to third. The holiday themed action comedy may experience a decline north of 50% considering the fresh competition.
The rest of the high five will consist of holdovers Venom: The Last Dance and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic in a close race for fifth. Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:
1. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $134.6 million
2. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $69.8 million
3. Red One
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
4. Bonhoeffer
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
6. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
7. Heretic
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (November 15-17)
On one hand, Red Notice with Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans was originally set for Amazon only distribution so any number is better than nothing. On the other, its debut is fairly ho-hum considering the reported $250 million price tag. It made $32.1 million which did manage to exceed my $27.6 million take. As mentioned, I do expect a hefty dip though it could rebound over the Turkey Day frame.
Venom: The Last Dance was second after three weeks in 1st with $7.3 million, falling behind my $10.2 million prediction. The comic book based threequel sits at $127 million after four outings.
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $5.2 million. In a trend from this past weekend, it didn’t match my number as I pegged it at $7.6 million. The two-week tally is $19 million.
Heretic was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $6.3 million) as Hugh Grant horror thriller’s total is $20 million after its second go-round.
The Wild Robot rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $5.5 million call. The animated tale has earned $137 million in eight weeks.
Universal is banking on Wicked casting a spell on a wide audience when it debuts November 22nd. Based on the Stephen Schwartz musical, the fantasy set in the land of Oz comes from Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headline with a supporting cast including Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum. The adaptation serves as part one with the sequel scheduled for November of 2025.
Expectations are high, especially after industry screenings that were met with Oscar buzz in Best Picture, Supporting Actress fo Grande, and numerous tech races. Moviegoers of all ages have familiarity with the Broadway show and, of course, The Wizard of Oz. There’s even some Barbenheimer chatter since it is opening on the same date as Gladiator II, which is also anticipated to perform well.
The forecasted range of its start is wide with some estimates less than $100 million, but going all the way up to $150 million. I’m skeptical it gets that high as some viewers may choose to wait until the extended Thanksgiving frame to check it out. Yet I do think it will easily clear nine digits out of the gate.
My Year Of posts focusing on a half dozen performers who had us feeling ’22 continues with our second icon who turned the big 6-0 this year. The first was Tom Cruise and if you missed that post, you can find it here:
The next sexagenarian is Michelle Yeoh. For the past three decades, U.S. audiences have seen the Malaysian legend fighting alongside Jackie Chan in the Supercop pics, James Bond in Tomorrow Never Dies, and Chow Yun-fat in Ang Lee’s acclaimed Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. In recent years, she probably came close to a Supporting Actress nomination as the overbearing mother in Crazy Rich Asians. Last year, she joined the MCU in Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
There were plenty of projects in 2022. She lent her voice to Minions: The Rise of Gru and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank. A small role popped up in Netflix’s YA fantasy The School for Good and Evil. None of those projects are why Yeoh made this cut.
Everything Everywhere All at Once is. The sophomore effort of the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) is the multi-genre rumination on life that casts Yeoh as frazzled laundromat owner Evelyn. She also (due to a seemingly infinite multiverse) plays the role in many other iterations including a movie star, a woman with hot dogs for fingers, and a rock. It’s a one-of-a-kind picture with the role of a lifetime for its lead.
An Oscar nomination is a near certainty and a win is quite possible. The box office was impressive with $70 million domestically against a considerably smaller budget. Costars Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, and Jamie Lee Curtis could all be headed for their own awards nods. I currently have Everything listed in 1st to take Best Picture.
A busy 2023 and beyond awaits Yeoh. More voice work is on deck with Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and Kenneth Branagh has put her in the ensemble of his third Poirot mystery A Haunting in Venice. Her Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu will be collaborating with her again on the two planned Wicked films (slated for 2024 and 2025). James Cameron has her showing up (apparently in human form) in the third and fourth Avatar pics.
Yeoh’s part in Everything was originally considered for her old costar Jackie Chan. That’s hard to picture now given her fantastic portrayal. She easily earns a spot in this series. My Year Of posts will continue with an actor who might’ve lost a friend in his Oscar contender, but gained plenty of praise for his body work throughout the year.
We have somehow reached the midpoint of 2021 and that means it is time to take stock in the Oscar contenders that have been released or screened so far. In short, we are talking about fairly slim pickings.
That is not rare. The bulk of the Best Picture nominees are typically unveiled between September-December of a given year (or in the case of 2020 – January or February of 2021 as well). For the previous Academy Awards, not one of the 8 BP contenders were distributed in the first half of the year. However, 3 of them (The Father, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman) premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2020. Another (Sound of Metal) was screened all the way back in September 2019 during Toronto’s festival.
As a reminder, Oscar rules were altered moving forward starting with next year’s ceremony. There will be a fixed number of 10 BP nominees (thank goodness). As I see it, the 2021 Sundance Fest gave us three potential hopefuls in the big race: Sian Heder’s Coda, Rebecca Hall’s Passing, and Fran Kranz’s Mass.
Coda and Mass, in particular, seem like real possibilities. The former, in addition to a Picture nod, could see itself as a contender for Emilia Jones in Actress and Marlee Matlin in Supporting Actress. The latter sports a quarter of performers (Jason Isaacs, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney) that could find themselves in the mix. Passing, while more of a long shot for BP, features Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga and they will likely be campaigning.
How about movies that didn’t go the Sundance route? The obvious one is In the Heights from Jon M. Chu. The musical garnered glowing reviews when it premiered in theaters and on HBO Max last month. However, its surprisingly lackluster box office grosses may hinder its chances. Time will tell.
There are already three released animated features that could make the final five: The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Luca, and Raya and the Last Dragon. I think the first two have strong chances while Raya is more of a question mark. Flee, which screened at Sundance, was critically hailed and it could find itself competing here and in Documentary Feature.
As for other docs, keep an eye out for Summer of Saul (which actually releases tomorrow) and Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain.
And when we look at below the line categories, there’s Cruella. Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling are two derbies where it could not only be nominated, but prevail. I also wouldn’t completely count out Coming 2 America for the same categories. The Sound race is open for A Quiet Place Part II. Godzilla vs. Kong is a hopeful in Visual Effects.
Bottom line: expect nearly all of 2021’s Best Picture players to see their release dates in the next six months. At least two could come from Sundance with Heights hoping its box office fall doesn’t sink its chances.
Ten days ago, Jon M. Chu’s In the Heights went into its premiere weekend as the first bonafide Best Picture contender of 2021. Sporting a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 96%, the musical (adapted from a play co-created by Lin-Manuel Miranda) was projected to gross around $20 million in its opening frame. And then reality happened.
The pic was a major box office disappointment and earned just $11.5 million out of the gate (landing at #2 behind the third weekend of A Quiet Place Part II). Even then not all hope was lost. With solid word-of-mouth and awards buzz, perhaps Heights would hold well in subsequent weekends.
And then reality happened again. Heights appears to have dropped to sixth place in its sophomore outing with a drop of over 60%. What a difference a week and a half can make. There’s really no positive spin for its box office performance. It’s simply very underwhelming. Furthermore, the bulk of publicity received for Heights in recent days was either for its disappointing numbers or controversy emerging from its casting choices (something for which Miranda issued an apology for).
At this juncture, it’s a legitimate question whether Heights is still a viable contender at the Oscars. Much of that could depend on if Warner Bros makes a robust effort to campaign for it. I would say its inclusion in the big categories is now iffy at best. This applies to Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Anthony Ramos in Actor (which was probably always a long shot), and Olga Merediz in Supporting Actress. Down the line categories such as Sound and Original Song are more questionable as well.
The studio could shift its focus to fall contenders including Denis Villeneuve’s Dune, Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark, and King Richard with Will Smith. Bottom line: Heights isn’t finished in the Oscar derby, but it is hard to say that it’s not wounded.
With a rousing 99% score on Rotten Tomatoes, the musical In the Heights reaches theaters and HBO Max on June 11 and expectations have risen. After being pushed back nearly a full year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Jon M. Chu directs a large cast including Anthony Ramos, Corey Hawkins, Leslie Grace, Melissa Barrera, Olga Merediz, Daphne Rubin-Vega, Gregory Diaz IV, and Jimmy Smith. It is based on the stage production created by Quiara Alegria Hudes and Lin-Manuel Miranda (who also appears).
Critics have taken to the adaptation with many claiming it is the feel good picture of the season. Miranda’s name associated with anything is a bonus. A female and Latino audience could turn out in large numbers. Heights is also 2021’s first release that could be a major Oscar contender in multiple categories, including Best Picture. The fact that HBO Max subscribers may opt for home viewing is always a factor, but the streaming arrangement with Warner Bros has already produced satisfying theatrical starts for other titles.
Three years ago, Chu had an unexpected summer smash with Crazy Rich Asians. It opened to $26.5 million and legged out tremendously to a $174 million domestic haul. I could easily see his follow-up earning about the same for its premiere weekend, but I’ll put it just a tad under.
In the Heights opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million
For my Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway prediction, click here:
Jon M. Chu’s musical drama In the Heights was originally slated to hit theaters last June, but the COVID-19 pandemic altered the plan. Based on the stage musical created by Quiara Alegria Hudes and Lin-Manuel Miranda, the film now dances into multiplexes and HBO Max on June 11. The review embargo lifted today and it appears we have a legitimate Best Picture hopeful before us.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 97% with many critics imploring audiences to see it on the biggest screen possible. Many reviewers also note that it’s the perfect tonic after a rough year. Heights has a sprawling cast and that ensemble stands a terrific shot at SAG recognition next year. It could perform very well in the Musical/Comedy categories at the Golden Globes… if there is a ceremony next year (and that’s a big if right now).
As for the Oscars, many possibilities exist. Director Chu’s previous effort was the smash hit Crazy Rich Asians, but it was completely ignored by the Academy. That’s unlikely to happen here. Best Original Song (with Miranda proving some new material) and Sound could certainly be in play.
When it comes to the big competitions, the feel good nature of Heights could absolutely lift it to a Best Picture nomination. It might be a bit more of a reach for Chu to make the final five in directing, but it’s at least feasible. Two cast members receiving immediate kudos are Anthony Ramos (in what could be quite a crowded Best Actor derby) and Olga Merediz in Supporting Actress.
Bottom line: expect this anticipated summer hit musical to be on the minds of voters in the forthcoming awards season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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