2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.
A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Following a nearly six and a half year break between big screen releases, the Star Wars franchise blasts back into theaters over the Memorial Day holiday with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Building upon the Disney+ series The Mandalorian that aired from 2019 to 2023, Pedro Pascal returns in the title role with Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver in the human cast. Jon Favreau, who created the TV series, directs.
After Disney prioritized streaming content in the 2020s, this looks to kickstart multiplex studio efforts with Star Wars: Starfighter slated to open next Memorial Day weekend. Grogu is a real test for Star Wars fan loyalty. It can be argued that this would have fared better when the Disney+ show was fresher in the minds of viewers. The last two theatrical efforts -2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, were considered letdowns critically and commercially.
The best comp is Solo which debuted over the same holiday frame with $84 million from Friday to Sunday and $103 million when factoring Monday. Disney is surely hoping for nine figure bragging rights. I’m putting it under that for what would be considered a so-so start.
The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend prediction: $80.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $94.7 million (Friday to Monday)
30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.
And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.
Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.
Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There’s plenty of belly laughs amidst the bullets in Deadpool & Wolverine and some fleeting emotional moments as well. That’s no shocker as this sub-franchise from Ryan Reynolds has mixed with the bawdy with the blubbery since 2016. Dropping Wolverine into the equation is an example of corporate synergy thanks to Disney’s acquisition of Fox five years ago. You’ll recall that Hugh Jackman’s signature clawed character met a bloody yet dignified end in 2017’s Logan. For those who believe his chapter closed appropriately (and it did), the multiverse machinations of the MCU may seem cash grab inappropriate. I didn’t mind so much because it’s Jackman’s chemistry with Reynolds that provide the high points.
Deadpool’s life is kinda dead in the water in 2024. He’s living full-time as Wade Wilson having retired the mask after being rejected during a job interview for The Avengers. He wants to make a difference on a Tony Stark/Captain America sized scale, but the universe seems to feel otherwise. Broken up with Vanessa (Morena Baccarin) and rooming with Blind Al (Leslie Uggams), his mundane existence in the used car biz is jolted by the Time Variance Authority (TVA).
As exposited by one of their agents Mr. Paradox (a game Matthew MacFadyen), Wade’s “Sacred Timeline” is at risk of crumbling. That’s due to Logan’s aforementioned fate from years earlier since he served as the Timeline’s stalwart anchor. The TVA offers Mr. Pool a way out while his small group of loved ones will perish. His solution is to find another Logan across the multiverses to save the world as he knows it. Naturally he ends up with a boozy, guilt ridden, and reluctant hero version of the once proud X-Man.
The duo end up in the Void which houses outcast varieties of familiar and more unfamiliar superheroes. This wasteland is ruled by Cassandra Nova (Emma Corrin), as X-Men adjacent telepathic with designs on dominating all the dimensions. The Void concept allows for plenty of cameos from the preeminent genre of the 21st century. I wouldn’t dare spoil them, but I’d recommend seeing this quick before X gives it to you. The appearances of these known quantities is good for a few chuckles. Yet I would argue that the dependence on them (especially during the middle section) dulls the sharp humor for a stretch.
D & W could have used more of the two leads just marinating in their beloved personas. With Shawn Levy handling the direction after teaming with Reynolds on Free Guy and The Adam Project, the pic occasionally seems too busy and eager to please. One quibble is that when Pool and Wolvie fight each other, the screenplay (from five writers including Reynolds and Levy) tells us just how awesome it’s about to be!! The truth is that the action sequences are your typical Marvel level mayhem, no more or less. Speaking of eager to please, I do have to shoutout the hideous and simultaneously adorable Mary Puppins aka Dogpool character.
Due to the demerits listed above, I’d rank this third among the three Deadpool movies. I cannot deny that it still manages to the tickle the funny bone with some precision targets uproariously skewered. That includes Disney’s recent misfortunes in its not always marvelous franchise. This won’t be looked at as one of them courtesy of the headliners.
On July 26th, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman are back in their signature roles and for the first time together in the aptly titled Deadpool & Wolverine. The superhero mashup is the 34th title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second sequel to 2016’s smash Deadpool. Shawn Levy directs with a supporting cast including Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, Brianna Hildebrand, Karan Soni, Shioli Kutsana, Lewis Tan, Aaron Stanford, Tyler Mane, Jon Favreau (back as Happy Hogan), and apparently Jennifer Garner reprising her Elektra role.
This pairing has long been looked at as the likely contender for summer 2024’s biggest blockbuster. That’s a position that might be unattainable domestically due to the Inside Out 2 phenomenon. However, it is expected to achieve the highest premiere of the season and the year.
Jackman hasn’t donned the claws since 2017’s Logan and that return helps feed the buzz. This should have no trouble giving Wolverine his largest start which is currently held by 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 million).
The same logic applies to Mr. Pool. The original made $132 million out of the gate and $363 million overall eight years ago. 2018’s follow-up took in $125 million with $318 million total stateside.
Tracking has this at around $165 million, but I’ll uptick it closer to $180 million. My exact call gives it the 16th strongest opening ever between Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Beauty and the Beast.
Deadpool & Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $176.1 million
In what has become a tradition on the blog, it is time to revisit the cinematic season that transpired ten years ago. In 2014, that meant the warmer months were ruled by a ragtag group of relatively unknown Marvel superheroes (at least compared to your Spideys, Batmen, and Supermen, etc…).
Audiences might have been hooked on the feelings these MCU characters gave them, but they were also transfixed by apes, giant lizards, and pizza chomping turtles.
Let’s take a trip down a decade old memory lane with the top 10 domestic earners of summer ’14 as well as other noteworthy pics and significant flops.
10. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Domestic Gross: $177 million
While the DreamWorks Animation sequel couldn’t match or exceed the gross of its 2010 predecessor at $217 million, the fantasy tale won the Golden Globe for its genre and was Oscar nominated for Animated Feature. A sequel would follow five years later.
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Domestic Gross: $191 million
With Michael Bay producing and Megan Fox starring, the transformation of this franchise from the 1990s to the 21st century was a financial if not critical success. A sequel which made less cash came two summers later.
8. 22 Jump Street
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill’s second go-round as hapless cops (this time graduating to going undercover at college instead of high school) outpaced the 2012 original financially. A third Street never arrived (there was a rumored crossover with the Men in Black series), but Tatum has recently spoken of his desire to get the ball rolling.
7. Godzilla
Domestic Gross: $200 million
It might be the 30th overall feature in the Godzilla franchise, but this monster mash from Gareth Edwards achieved some of the series’ best reviews and kicked off the MonsterVerse that is still wreaking havoc at multiplexes. It also assisted in washing away dirty memories of Roland Emmerich’s 1998 summertime treatment with Matthew Broderick
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $202 million
While it made over $200 million domestic, Andrew Garfield’s return to the Spidey suit was seen as underwhelming with critics and audiences. Planned sequels didn’t materialize though Garfield and head villain Jamie Foxx would reprise their roles in 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home.
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $208 million
The follow-up to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Matt Reeves took over directorial duties. The result was critical acclaim as Dawn became the long running franchise’s largest grosser. Two sequels (including Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in May) have followed.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This sequel combined cast members from the 2000-06 trilogy including Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, Ian McKellen’s Magneto, Patrick Stewart’s Professor X, and Halle Berry’s Storm with some of their younger counterparts from 2011’s X-Men: First Class like Michael Fassbender’s Magneto and James McAvoy’s Professor X (as well as Jennifer Lawrence’s Mystique). The result is the highest earning pic with X-Men in the title. With the exception of the Deadpool success that followed two years later, direct sequels Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix failed to replicate the success here.
3. Maleficent
Domestic Gross: $241 million
After the massively profitable live-action remake of their animated Alice in Wonderland four years earlier, Disney continued the trend with Maleficent. Angelina Jolie starred as the Sleeping Beauty villainess and a 2019 sequel earned less than half of the total of this domestically.
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Domestic Gross: $245 million
Shia LaBeouf exited Michael Bay’s robotic mayhem and Mark Wahlberg entered this fourth entry. A billion in receipts worldwide resulted in making this 2014’s best worldwide grosser. Sequels are still coming and the latest Transformers: Rise of the Beasts hit a lower $157 million last year.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This was the 10th feature in the MCU and it seemed like the first that could be a financial question mark. The heroes weren’t as familiar to audiences, but James Gunn’s tale of eccentric comic characters took by the box office by storm. Two sequels have followed in addition to Guardians appearances in other MCU sagas.
And now let’s cover some other flicks from ’14 that had crowds and critics chatting.
Neighbors
Domestic Gross: $150 million
The comedic teaming of Seth Rogen and Zac Efron caused this fraternal experience to be the season’s most fruitful original comedy. A less regarded sequel came two years later.
Lucy
Domestic Gross: $126 million
Two summers after The Avengers set records, Scarlett Johansson had a solid sci-fi action grosser with Luc Besson’s concoction.
The Fault in Our Stars
Domestic Gross: $124 million
John Green’s phenomenon of a YA romance bestseller became a blockbuster with decent reviews highlighting the chemistry of leads Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort.
Edge of Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Doug Liman’s sci-fi actioner with elements of Groundhog Day was not a sizable hit upon release. However, the Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt led title’s reputation has grown since with occasional rumors of another Tomorrow.
Let’s Be Cops
Domestic Gross: $82 million
This buddy cop pic was an out of nowhere late season surprise with over $100 million globally against a meager $17 million budget. Unlike nearly all other movies I’ve spoken of above, a sequel (somehow) did not happen.
Chef
Domestic Gross: $31 million
After helming two ginormous Iron Man chapters and a disappointment with Cowboys and Aliens, Jon Favreau cooked up critical cred and impressive midsize numbers with this road dramedy.
Boyhood
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Shot over a span of a decade, Richard Linklater’s unique coming-of-age drama remains the best reviewed picture of the 21st century according to Metacritic. Six Oscar nods, including a Supporting Actress victory for Patricia Arquette, were among its many plaudits.
Snowpiercer
Domestic Gross: $4 million
Bong Joon-Ho, who would make the BP winning Parasite five years later, garnered acclaim for this post-apocalyptic pic that would eventually spawn a TV series.
OK, so not all 2014 summer sagas were prosperous and here’s some that were considered commercial and/or critical disappointments.
Hercules
Domestic Gross: $72 million
Brett Ratner’s version of the Greek god wreaking havoc on his enemies cast Dwayne Johnson in the lead. The grosses were actually fairly decent, but I’m sure the studio were hoping for nine figures stateside… and does anyone even mention this movie anymore?
Jersey Boys
Domestic Gross: $47 million
The original play earned Tonys but audiences mostly tuned out Clint Eastwood’s take on the decades spanning musical drama.
Blended
Domestic Gross: $46 million
The Wedding Singer and 50 First Dates were each lucrative rom coms with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The third time was not the charm with moviegoers or reviewers.
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane ruled the comedic box office in summer 2012 with Ted. This follow-up starring him and Charlize Theron didn’t hit the bullseye.
The Expendables 3
Predicted Gross: $39 million
The previous two action headliners with Stallone, Schwarzenegger, Statham, and Snipes and others did well. For inexplicable reasons, a PG-13 rating was slapped on this third one and audiences turned their nose up for what they wanted to be R-rated violence. A fourth (and also unsuccessful) pic came out last year.
Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $38 million
Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz couldn’t cause people to cue up this raunchy comedy which played to mostly empty establishments.
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Domestic Gross: $13 million
The first Sin City in 2005 made nearly $30 million in its first weekend while this sequel grossed less than half that figure total. The comic book adaptation co-directed by Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller might stand as the biggest flop of the season.
And that’s your recap, folks! Hope you enjoyed this walk down memory lane and I’ll have a post about summer 2015 up in the summer of 2025!
After amassing over $800 million at the box office and becoming the third highest domestic grosser of all time, Disney and Marvel are looking to spin more bucks for Spidey on Labor Day weekend. That’s in the form of Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition. The revamped version contains 11 minutes of additional footage including more of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield donning the spandex alongside Tom Holland.
Over Labor Day 2021, the MCU made a killing when Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings took in $94 million over the Monday to Friday frame. In 2022, Hollywood seems to be taking the holiday off. This could allow Marvel to hit #1 again with our webbed heroes. Fun is out on approximately 3000 screens and that wide release could allow for a seventh non-consecutive weekend atop the charts.
That said, I don’t expect this to top $10 million. The, um, less fun (?) iteration is already streaming and has been for some time. I don’t imagine a large audience will turn out for 11 extra minutes.
Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition opening weekend prediction: $7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. prediction, click here:
Spider-Man’s neighborhood grows exponentially in No Way Home, our third iteration of Tom Holland’s web slinger adventures with Jon Watts back directing. Not all the visitors he encounters are of the friendly sort. As you may recall, the conclusion of predecessor Far From Home had the scheming Mysterio (Jake Gyllenhaal) reveal Peter Parker’s identity to the masses. That has serious repercussions as Peter/Spidey’s anonymity is gone and the Daily Bugle and others paint him as a bad guy.
It might be easier to erase that divulgence so Peter visits his old avenging buddy Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) to cast a spell to accomplish that. It doesn’t go as planned and it opens to a portal to a multiverse of characters who knew of Spider-Man’s alter ego. THIS IS WHERE WE GO INTO SPOILERS SO CONSIDER YOURSELF WARNED.
Crashing into this trilogy are the antagonists from Spider-tales of old. As in the Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield entries that we witnessed from 2002-2014. The sinister company consists of the Green Goblin (Willem Dafoe), Doc Ock (Alfred Molina), Electro (Jamie Foxx), Lizard (Rhys Ifans), and Sandman (Thomas Haden Church).
With the great power of the Marvel Cinematic Universe comes a responsibility to tap into our nostalgic leanings and No Way Home does it in heavy doses. Seeing Dafoe’s maniacal Goblin and Molina’s Doc from the first two Maguire installments is a kick. As for the rest, they came from lesser pics (Maguire’s last and both Garfield excursions). That said, Foxx’s characterization is a lot more fun than what we saw in The Amazing Spider-Man 2.
My reviews of Homecoming and Far From Home concentrated on the best moments being the most grounded. Holland (the most effective Spidey in my view) and his interactions with love interest MJ (Zendaya), Aunt May (Marisa Tomei), and bestie Ned (Jacob Batalon) were highlights. That holds true here, but No Way Home is anything but grounded. The third go-round is bigger in every sense.
In many ways, it’s the most satisfying since Maguire’s original double feature. Is it gimmicky? Absolutely and there’s an overload of exposition to plow through in the first act. Yet it also reminds us how unique Spider-Man is in the realm of superheroes. It’s also a plus that the villains in this series are complicated ones (for the genre at least) whose motivations are varied and often understandable.
I could go even further down spoiler territory and it’s fair to say the most amazing moments are ones I won’t delve into. No Way Home does provide humorous retribution for one hero in particular (you’ll know when you see it). This is grand entertainment that occasionally approaches the scale of the wars and endgame of Spider-Man’s former team. He’s got a fresh troupe of buddies to collaborate with to save humanity in this trilogy capper. The teamwork provide multiple thrills.
When Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man trilogy kicked off nearly 20 years ago, it managed to nab a Best Visual Effects nod (losing to Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers). Two years later, the 2004 sequel won the prize. Since then, the five Spidey features that followed (Maguire’s third, both Andrew Garfield iterations, and the first two Tom Holland MCU flicks) didn’t show up in the race. Will Spider-Man: No Way Home change that?
The 27th entry (and fourth this year) in the Marvel Cinematic Universe debuts Friday and I have it pegged for the fourth best domestic opening of all time (behind Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens). The review embargo lifted early this morning and it stands at an impressive 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While nearly all critical notices are positive, I don’t think this will be the second MCU title to nab a Best Picture nomination behind Black Panther. While Best Sound is feasible, Home‘s best hope at Academy inclusion is in Visual Effects. MCU movies vying for that prize is not unusual. The inaugural pic in the biggest franchise of all (2008’s Iron Man) made the cut. So have Iron Man 2, The Avengers, Iron Man 3, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Infinity War, and Endgame. None have won.
So despite the last quintet of web slinger sagas not being honored for their effects, Home should have no problem? I don’t think it’s quite that simple. There are two Warner Bros sci-fi extravaganzas (Dune and The Matrix Resurrections) that should get in. That leaves three slots. Warner has another hopeful with Godzilla vs. Kong. Marvel itself has Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Eternals (and Black Widow to a lesser degree) vying for spots. Shang-Chi especially could get in (the Critics Choice Awards included it on their ballot). Don’t Look Up, Finch, and No Time to Die are other possibilities. It’s worth noting that whether Home makes the five, Dune is the very heavy favorite to take gold.
Here’s my hunch: by the time Academy voters cast their final votes, Home appears bound to have heightened box office numbers to their highest achievements in the pandemic era. That fact alone might get it some recognition from the Oscars and that would be for its visuals. Another interesting stat: of the ten current largest stateside premieres ever, only two (Avengers: Age of Ultron and Jurassic World) didn’t score at least one nomination from the Academy. That puts this in a decent position. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Bloggers Update (12/16): revising prediction up to $213.7M The Marvel Cinematic Universe is poised for the largest opening weekend of the pandemic era with Spider-Man: No Way Home out December 17th. In fact, it could debut higher than the current two record holders (Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Black Widow) combined. The 27th feature in the massive MCU franchise, this is officially the third entry in this Spider-Verse starring Tom Holland as the web-slinger (though he’s appeared in Avengers tales too). Jon Watts directs again and returning faces include Zendaya, Jacob Batalon, Jon Favreau, Marisa Tomei, and J.B. Smoove. That’s not all. Benedict Cumberbatch’s Doctor Strange is in on the action and villains of previous Spidey series come to the party. They include Alfred Molina, Willem Dafoe, Jamie Foxx, Thomas Haden Church, and Rhys Ifans. There’s also the possibility of other Spider-Men turning up.
This has led to No Way Home having the distinction of being the event film of the year with the most moneymaking potential. It might be the fourth MCU title in 2021 (after Widow, Shang-Chi, and Eternals), but it’s easily the most breathlessly anticipated. Early ticket sales indicate we’ll see grosses not witnessed since 2019. Two and a half years ago, Spider-Man: Far From Home kicked off during the long July 4th weekend and earned $185 million. 2017’s Homecoming made $117 million over a traditional Friday to Sunday rollout.
The pre-Christmas unveiling should prove to be shrewd timing. Some estimates having this going north of $200 million. That would be music to the ears of an industry that needs it after almost two long years. I’m not quite ready to declare $200 million and I’ll hedge with just under it.
Spider-Man: No Way Home opening weekend prediction: $213.7 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 